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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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Posted (edited)

The place to post general musings and views on any aspect you like of Brexit.

Brexit is a very important topic, and aspects of it will naturally crop up in the context of ferry-related discussion in other threads.  However, it is also right and proper that there is a place in the forum to discuss the issue, including its political aspects, in its own right.  However, there are a few ground rules, and by posting in this thread you agree to the following rules and principles:

1.  The topic of Brexit is wide-ranging and contraversial.  Individuals may hold very strong views on the matter.  But no matter how strongly those views are held, you appreciate and accept that others are also entitled to their view.  There is no "right" and "wrong" on the matter, and all views are equally welcome in the discussion.

2.  There is no place in the forum for posts that are rude, disrespectful, insulting or intolerant of the views of others.

3.  The forum is a place for rational and considered debate, not un-reasoned political ranting.

4.  Posts that do not conform to these basic principles may be removed by the moderators without further notice.

Edited by Gareth
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I was wondering what people's opinions are in the aftermath of Brexit. Does the closeness of the result of the referendum give the government the moral backing for a hard Brexit? Should there be a "free vote" in parliament at the end of the negotiations and wouldn't it be better for parliament to appoint a cross party commitee in it's conversion of EU law to British law to avoid political interference?

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I am quite interested in the Gibraltar question that has suddenly arrived - Spain are going to be very awkward over this.  Now it is 27 countries against 1 in these negotiations and it only takes one nation to put the cat among the pigeons and I reckon it will be Spain of the Rock.. This will be another big headache on top of Nicola Sturgeon for Mrs May, I get the feeling that Gibraltar wasn't really thought about until Spain threw their spanner in the works yesterday.  What is likely to play out there - Spain will not make this easy.

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Gibraltar may have considered it. They voted 96% in favour of staying in the EU! At least their people had sense!

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Khaines said:

I am quite interested in the Gibraltar question that has suddenly arrived - Spain are going to be very awkward over this.  Now it is 27 countries against 1 in these negotiations and it only takes one nation to put the cat among the pigeons and I reckon it will be Spain of the Rock.. This will be another big headache on top of Nicola Sturgeon for Mrs May, I get the feeling that Gibraltar wasn't really thought about until Spain threw their spanner in the works yesterday.  What is likely to play out there - Spain will not make this easy.

Another problem that there is.Is there the political quality to overcome these problems?Gibralta is but one of many problems that should have been seen in advance.It is one thing to win a referendum it is another to put the result  into practice, fairly and representative of the result which was very close. 

Edited by imprimerie

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Belgian farmers nearly sunk the Canadian trade agreement, so this is a very thin line May has to tread, she cannot throw her weight around, nor can any of the Government.  What about the Falklands, will Argentina start getting ideas as well?

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It's almost like there was no plan for Brexit, and Mrs Mays made up on the back of a fag packet plan is already falling apart.

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The first bit of that is absolutely true. There was no plan for Brexit going into the referendum because Cameron abdicated his responsibility and refused to allow any planning to take place.  Hence everything has had to be worked out after the event and that has been a monumental task.

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12 minutes ago, Gareth said:

The first bit of that is absolutely true. There was no plan for Brexit going into the referendum because Cameron abdicated his responsibility and refused to allow any planning to take place.  Hence everything has had to be worked out after the event and that has been a monumental task.

And a monumental risk.Would the British public have voted leave if they had known of all these risks and problems?

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They didn't know that Cameron had forbidden any planning.  But as far as the potential risks, yes they went into that with their eyes open.

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9 minutes ago, Gareth said:

They didn't know that Cameron had forbidden any planning.  But as far as the potential risks, yes they went into that with their eyes open.

I think the result of the referendum was primarily won on the issue of immigration.The rest. It is sad to say that some were so blinkered about getting out that they didn't look into all the facts and arguments. 

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The part about her plan falling to pieces is currently becoming true as well as the EU flex their 27 muscles against the UKs one.

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I realise that the problems on the horizon and even nearer are large and many but it is the little things that annoy me, as a remain voter, like my duty free allowance, does the limit on still wine drop from an arbitrary 100 litres to a fixed 4 litres. So if I get caught entering the UK with a 5 litre box of red biddy, or Bordeaux, will I be deemed a criminal in the eyes of the UK Border Forces? I just do not think that enough people looked at the broader picture of the implications of leaving the EU and adopted a petty 'little Britain' attitude, but I suppose only time will tell.

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I think the only real certainty is that we shall see a lot of examples of the Law of Unintended Consequences cropping up.

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

I think the only real certainty is that we shall see a lot of examples of the Law of Unintended Consequences cropping up.

Plus it's certain that Mrs May won't get the deal done the way she wants it either the outcome or the discussions ,her hush hush tactic has been vetoed by the EU.

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What if Argentina suddenly started to make trouble over the Falklands? Although it is now a democracy over there, didn't stop them stirring the pot again a few years ago.  With the UK preoccupied with Brexit and our aircraft carriers sent to scrap, our Navy is a shadow of itself again. So while Brexit is consuming a lot of British politics and time, and Spain has kicked off about Gibraltar, is there any likelihood of Argentina making trouble - perfect time for them to do so!

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I think the obsession with holding on to the Falklands will be the furthest thing from Mrs Mays mind but in the very unlikely event of trouble starting it's ok we have Trident and our European and American allies for now.

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On 01/04/2017 at 08:13, Khaines said:

I am quite interested in the Gibraltar question that has suddenly arrived - Spain are going to be very awkward over this.  Now it is 27 countries against 1 in these negotiations and it only takes one nation to put the cat among the pigeons and I reckon it will be Spain of the Rock.. This will be another big headache on top of Nicola Sturgeon for Mrs May, I get the feeling that Gibraltar wasn't really thought about until Spain threw their spanner in the works yesterday.  What is likely to play out there - Spain will not make this easy.

Morocco have a similar problem with Spain with Ceuta and Melilla (part of Spain since 15th Centuary) being the only EU land border with Africa and also the Canary Islands geographically on the African Continent. Spain wont give them up. Gibraltar historically has had problems with Spain when the border was closed from 1969 for thirteen years. Spain will never get their hands on Gibraltar but maybe Gibraltar will make a play for Spain and turn it into an efficient thriving and economically sound jurisdiction - probably not.....

 

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They could turn Spain into a tax dodgers haven like the Isle of Man instead of what you proposed.

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23 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

They could turn Spain into a tax dodgers haven like the Isle of Man instead of what you proposed.

Gibraltar like the Isle of Man is a highly regulated low tax area,  in fact - both more highly regulated than the UK - I would have thought you would have known that?

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Ah low tax not tax dodger Haven I see the subtle difference,I feel we could stray of subject here but of course there can only be a limited number of "low tax " areas like the Isle of Man ,Jersey,panama . 

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1 minute ago, neilcvx said:

Ah low tax not tax dodger Haven I see the subtle difference,I feel we could stray of subject here but of course there can only be a limited number of "low tax " areas like the Isle of Man ,Jersey,panama . 

Hundreds in fact.... look at the Caribbean where there is no tax.... and of course the UK is also as you say "a tax dodger Haven" for many companies due to the tax incentives offered by the UK... thought you would have know that?

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The EU Commission Export Helpdesk has put together a chart to indicate the remaining 27 country's largest single export markets post Brexit, (after 2019).

UK 16%, US 15%, China 8%, Russia 6%, Switzerland 6%, Turkey 4%

The trade deficit, i:e the difference in what we spend on EU goods against what we buy from them is, as of the 30th March 2017, £105.8 billion. 

£42.7b-Germany, £20.8b-Netherlands, £15.8b-Belgium, £10.2b-Italy, £9b-Spain, £7.3b-France.

This is what these countries earn from us now, it will grow as the year progresses.

The only EU country we earn from is the R.O.I to the tune of £5.3b.

The EU Commision believe that after 2019 the UK will begin earn money from three of the remaining 27 members, The R.O.I, Luxemburg & Malta.

This is why the President of the European Commission, The office which will make all of the decisions,propose the legislation and implement the decisions, Jean Claude Juncker is a little more pragmatic than the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk whose office can offer a political direction, nothing more, it's not a legislating institution...

Those who think Tusk is President of the European Union, overseeing everything and ultimately making the EU's decisions on how the negotiations pan out are a little mistaken, that office doesn't exist.

What will be worth keeping an eye on is the European Council as, yes Tusk is the President but, Theresa May & Juncker are council members.

To live in fear of what a single union can do to us, the world's 5th largest economy, could be interpreted as having a little Britain attitude rather than the opposite. Do other countries within the world's top ten economies, the US, China, Japan, India, Brazil & Canada live in fear... No they don't, so why should we?

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4 minutes ago, jonno said:

To live in fear of what a single union can do to us, the world's 5th largest economy, could be interpreted as having a little Britain attitude rather than the opposite. Do other countries within the world's top ten economies, the US, China, Japan, India, Brazil & Canada live in fear... No they don't, so why should we?

This is one of those absolutely infuriating Brexit soundbites - talking Britain down etc etc.

It's not living in fear; it's living in fact. 

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Posted (edited)

I think it is very difficult, Jonno, for some people to "get" why there is so much enthusiasm in the UK for leaving the institution that the EU has become.  Particularly those in Europe who do not see the flaws the way we do.  And especially those like Tusk who had the opportunity to listen to Britain's concerns in Cameron's attempted renegotiation but just couldn't see it.  The thing that surprises me most is that people are surprised we voted out.  We can try explaining until we're blue in the face that this isn't about the economics, but those who have failed to grasp that by now are never going to.  The fact that extracting ourselves is such a complex task is testament itself to how unsatisfactory the arrangement is, that we should have never got so entangled in.  The one thing I do know is that, by all accounts, if the referendum was the-run today the Leave majority would be a hell of a lot bigger than it was last year - the many that were concerned about the doomsday nonsense that the likes of Osbourne was peddling, that the economy would collapse etc, now see that for the scaremongering it was and would not now be put off from voting Leave by it.

Edited by Gareth

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