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A place for general discussion on Brexit. Members need to join in order to be able to contribute.

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  2. It’s precisely because the outcome would be so unpredictable that parliament will not have the confidence to trigger an early general election. But anyway, let’s not stray into party politics here. The point is that, like every other possibility, parliament is unlikely to countenance an election. Which is one more reason why a no-deal exit is still very much a possibility by default. It will be interesting to see what sort of “revelations” in her thinking Theresa May returns from her holidays with this year.....
  3. Of course we are assuming that anyone is going to bother voting...
  4. I wish you were right. However, I think that there a number of constituencies where the sitting MP has a fairly slender majority and there's a lot of angry people out there. It's easy to imagine a Conservative or Labour MP in a working class area losing support to UKIP while maybe also losing out to the pro Remain parties. They would only need 5 - 10 MPs to potentially have influence
  5. Ukip support although significant is far too evenly spread across constituency's. Look at 2015 results nearly 3.9m votes and 1 MP. Tories three times as many votes 331MPs. They don't stand a chance.
  6. I'm not so sure. There's a very real chance of UKIP, or the new lot, getting a handful of MPs in any General Election - this could make them key coalition partners and they wouldn't have the same concerns about a border in Ireland as the DUP do, so who knows where that would end up?
  7. So, rather than letting them all go off on a nice two-week Easter break, why haven't we confiscated their phones and locked the entire useless bunch in the house of commons with a 24-hour supply of baked beans, prunes and water and one chemical toilet. That should focus their attention on finding a workable solution. Ed
  8. So not leaving without a deal is another backstop ( on the UK side of things only ) .
  9. Agreed - in terms of party representation at any rate. Possibly a different group of people, with different views on Brexit. But Brexit is clearly not a party political issue, so irrespective of party profiles, a general election may change the attitides to Brexit within parliament. But if it doesn’t, we come back to the principle point, that a no deal departure on the new exit date remains a significant possibility. (Was not intending to take this thread in a political direction - just correcting a misunderstanding that no deal is off the table - it is not, and unless parliament (this one or another one) agrees something else, it will ultimately be what happens).
  10. To be fair I don't think anyone has actually attempted to actually find out what MPs might pass. In the so called indicative votes in parliament all the parties whipped their MPs for the majority of the votes so not indicative of MPs feelings at all.
  11. I don't think there is anything to suggest that a general election would produce a significantly different result from the existing situation so what would that achieve?
  12. Well, the problem we have is that the current parliament will not countenance no deal, will not countenance a deal, will not countenance revoking article 50, and will not countenance a second referendum. All of those options have been put to the vote and have been defeated. Several times. Which means that there is nothing that this parliament will countenance. In the event of nothing being positively countenanced, leaving without a deal remains the default legal position. The only way I can see that impasse changing is to change parliament. If parliament therefore also refuses to countenance a general election then no deal remains a distinct possibility. And the only circumstances under which I can see a majority in parliament for a general election is under a new Tory leader. I agree that a general election would probably "reset" the EU's attitude. But barring that, it is clear that Macron has had enough (he is why the extension was only until end October and not longer), and it was I think the Dutch PM that is on record as saying that "by 31 October the expectation is that the UK will either agree a deal, leave with no deal, or cancel Brexit". In terms of PR, I think the EU can claim the moral high ground in agreeing to two extensions, and that no criticism of them can really be levelled in declining a third (barring a fundamental change in circumstances). So unless May either gets a deal agreed or stands down (leading to a new Tory leader and then to a general election), then the "no deal" outcome, however much parliament says it doesn't want it, remains a very real possibility.
  13. I would have thought that really depends on what the state of play is in October. If those in charge of the government still have no workable plan then no extensions so if parliament won't countenance no deal revoke A50 the only course the government can take. If however there is a plan for a general election or a new referendum on possible courses of action then I would have thought it unlikely that any request for a delay would be refused.
  14. It looks like BF are reducing their prices on some sailings to try to boost bookings but are not, as yet, publishing any special offers other than those already available. https://twitter.com/BrittanyFerries/status/1116732306180452352?s=20 Ed
  15. Cutting off the branch of the tree that you happen to be sitting on comes to mind .
  16. The fact of the matter is it will hurt them far less. "I'll shoot myself in the foot" has never been much of a threat, unless you subscribe to the madman theory.
  17. Whereas the EU has not backed itself into a corner as regards a no deal situation just the UK .
  18. There is no government in power at the present time. There is a government in office. That's the problem. Present polling and electoral maths suggests that an election would return pretty much the same complexion of parliament. Hung or with a miserable working majority. Where we are now though is proof once again I'm afraid of the fact that stubborn mediocrity is the most toxic of combinations.
  19. That’s not quite right. It has been ruled out as parliamentary policy, but that does not mean it can’t happen. The law recently passed obliges the PM to ask for an extension if exit date approaches with no deal approved. But that’s it. Some voices in the EU have suggested there will not be an approval for a third extension. In the absence of an extension request being approved, it remains the law that we will leave on the new exit date without a deal unless one has been agreed by then or unless article 50 is revoked. Any one of the three outcomes is still possible by then (and you’d have to say that if we get to anywhere near 31 October without a deal having been agreed then it is almost inconceivable that we will have the same government in power, so anything is possible depending on who actually is in power by then).
  20. Presumably supplied by our Dutch friends. I think that says everything we need to know about the viability of hard brexit 🤣
  21. Anyone notice the vase of tulips beside Mrs May when she did that video today. Wonder if she visits here...😂😁👍
  22. There have been an increasing number of reports on French TV in the last week or so about fears for the French fishing industry. As UK waters (particularly south of Plymouth) are much richer in fish stocks than the other side of the channel, a large number of Breton and Norman boats cross each week and then return to unload in France. If there is a 'no deal' Brexit this Friday, UK waters will be out of bounds and they fear large scale job losses and certain ports like Roscoff could loss a significant proportion of their fleets. The fish markets are also worried that they may have to close because they no longer have enough fish to sell. They accept that it may be necessary to buy stocks from British fishermen instead but that's unlikely to be a palatable option. Ed.
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