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Shipping Forecast

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Everything posted by Shipping Forecast

  1. IIRC Tilbury Calais ran for a couple of months with very light loadings before being suspended. However this was before all the changes with the current situation, plus issues with SNCF not bringing traffic, so potentially could all add up now.
  2. I believe that has come to a dead end as the plan was to use Lake Nicaragua, which also provides the majority of Nicaragua‘s fresh water, would be ruined by the plan as it sliced a huge deep shipping trench through the lake. There are a few Nicaraguans who believe it can still go ahead, but China has shifted focus to Panama and the Panama Canal in their continuing play for power. In a wider view it will be interesting to see what happens to global shipping with the increasing return of highly automated manufacturing to countries that moved manufacturing in the cheap labour Asian countries
  3. Suez Canal 2 through Israel has been on the back burner for ages, even after the US's grand 'nuke the Negev' plans. Erdogan's Istanbul Canal project is part of China's Maritime Silk Road initiative to gain easier access to the Danube for their ships. The Maritime Silk Road initiative also has another two, shall we say ambitious, canal plans to improve access even further to central Europe. The first runs from Thessaloniki in the Aegean Sea to the Danube at Belgrade using two existing rivers as the basis of the canal. This is only 600km / 372 miles long with an estimated £15 billion price
  4. Au contraire for the beauty of industrialised ports. There is beauty and wonder in them all, from their history, construction, the industries with and their operation that many prefer to forget but brings us all wealth and the comforts of everyday life. There is plenty to marvel at from the ingenuity of humans to how how fragile this all is in reality. As an example, the much derided Le Havre - we enter (or leave depending on timings) along the Route Industrielle or Route de l'Estuaire, taking in the industrial zones, under the 4km conveyor built to bring stone from the quarries north of
  5. From the air when I flew from Aeroport de Dinard Bretagne a couple of years ago.
  6. Suez Canal - Ever Given.mp4 An updated analysis from Maritime Casualty Specialists - http://www.maricaspe.com Another indication that the pressure differences across the hull from the bank / bottom affected the Ever Given.
  7. Interestingly just read that ships over 64m / 210 ft beam have a 10 knot wind limit. The Ever Given is with 10% of that limit, yet was sailing through with winds exceeding 25 knots according to weather reports. Also from the cross sectional navigation data, around 2.3 km south of the grounding point, the width of the canal at point of grounding narrows from 247 to 217m effective width (between navigation aides), the larger width needed on curves to allow for turning. By rough calculation using the AIS plots, this is also about where the canal straightens after the initial curve in the can
  8. First, thank you. (Re-editing comment was for a half written post and fat fingers near the enter key.) The Suez Canal has a variable ship profile as the canal itself is more an inverted trapezium shape than a rectangular box and approximately only the centre third is a at the maximum depth. As an indication 50m (164') beam has a maximum draught of 21.12m (66') 60m (197' 1") beam has a maximum draught of 16.8m (54' 11") 65m (213' 3") beam has a maximum draught of 15m (49' 2") and so on. The variation in draught go in one inch increments to calculate the maximum beam allowed.
  9. Both have similar principles concerning with the movement of fluids around a body combining Bernoulli, Newton, Euler etc for cause and effect. In flying, through aeronautical engineering shaping the aircraft, positive velocity changes are created in the fluid (air) around a moving surface to produce aerodynamic forces about that surface. These surface forces are resolved to perpendicular and horizontal force vectors in relation to the fluid flow, otherwise known as lift and drag. The part of Bernoulli that is applicable is the change in fluid speed relates to change in pressure. This is
  10. Another good image from ESA showing the congestion building due to the blockage.
  11. Good image from a Maxar satellite showing dredger at bow.
  12. This can be a great tool. However a lot of the ground around there is loose material so there would have to be precise planning to do this, or you would make the issue worse by causing an ingress of extraneous material into the area. There are constant dredging operations in the Suez Canal to keep it navigable from this loose material, two new dredgers designed for the Canal launched last year. Something about sand and building houses springs to mind. Edit to add - Another consideration is that is the liquefaction changes the material supporting the ship too quickly not only do you risk m
  13. Looks like this is a result of known hydrodynamics on ships in shallow water assisted by the hydrodynamics of vessels passing within close range of shore, banks etc aggravated by very variable wind strengths. In short as a ship sails through shallow water, the movement of the water caused by the ship's displacement causes a low pressure area under the aft section which pulls the stern into the water and therefore the bow to raise. This effect is also seen when a large vessel sails close to the shore / bank where the stern gets pulls into the bank and bow pushed out. Bear in mind too that
  14. Stena Freighter is still under conversion in Pensacola, Florida, but now has a new name - Jacklyn after Jeff Bezos's mother. The two funnels have now gone replaced by funnel stumps and the rear ramp has been replaced by a solid stern. No longer a RoRo now a FoLo (Fly On Lift Off). Photos - Eric Flood (Twitter @EricFlo19671974) There is no rush to finish the work as now Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket initial launch is NET Q4 2022. The photo shows a model of the finished ship with the first stage of the new Glenn rocket on deck after landing. Photo - Jeff
  15. For this discussion we might need a big red bus. Is that the size beyond Melchizedek?
  16. Agreed. There are many examples through history ancient Greece on through Copernicus and Galileo up to the present day, although it was not the science in doubt, rather the political / religious overlords exerting their will against a threat to their power. The same political / religious and now big business overlords exist today together with the sometimes questionable patronage of the peer review system exerting their power. However with more routes to publish now especially with preprint and the internet, leads to a much more robust system to get your ideas out if you have a serious di
  17. I used to find it amusing but the insidious creep of ever increasing manure piles of pseudo science and dross online, combined with the increasing intolerance of questioning / real science, factual evidence and engineering, is now one of the most serious threats to us as a species. Maybe Golgafrinchin Ark Fleet Ship B has really crashed into Earth.
  18. There are many clouds on the horizon of democracy and privileges associated with it.
  19. For more on vaccines (PB and AZ), side effects, blood clots etc, please read of https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links. Hopefully some will find it helpful.
  20. The EU has not approved Indian production yet, it also has not approved the manufacturing facility for the vaccine in the Netherlands either. AZ are expecting Netherlands approval though by the end of March. Both plants are waiting. But when production is started, after the fuss made will AZ be used or left on the shelf? In addition the EU was told by the US it should not expect any AZ vaccine manufactured in the US to be exported to the EU. However this seems slightly flawed as AZ cannot manufacturer the vaccine in the US as the vaccine itself has not been approved by the FDA. Vaccine po
  21. Yes, China has tried to interfere in Australia and they are pushing back despite China being their biggest customer, which is leading to tension.
  22. Aren't stereotypes and groupthink great. Individual countries, EU, Europe - many see them as the same in other parts of the world. Bit like England is the UK to Americans. There are probably better battles to fight right now. Bit like the AZ vaccine is not approved in the US to favour the US manufacturers. Many not happy about it over there. Vaccine politics, the pinnacle of achievement for our worthy leaders.
  23. As a view form afar, speaking to friends in a developing part of the world today, they see the EU countries, their leaders and more worryingly their people, as acting like "privileged spoilt brats" with the vaccines and the 'luxury of being able to lockdown'. They would be over the moon to receive 1m vaccines of any type, let alone the 1.2/1.4 million unused AZ vaccines in Germany and so on after the leaders rubbished it. To paraphrase - either we are in an biological emergency and everyone should be treated asap with whatever is approved, instead of being picky about it as Merkel, Macron
  24. Just wanted to make sure wasn't going mad. Even today when I go flying, if you look over big towns and cities you can see a orangey brown haze sitting over the urban sprawl that can go up over a thousand feet in the right weather conditions. Makes you wonder how many are being affected today; I have seen 30,000 fatalities a year estimated in UK alone. Just reading a preliminary paper published yesterday about the Ebola virus showing it could survive in a human for over 5 years. It is this long hibernation that is causing the reoccurring outbreaks in the same areas, and may not be con
  25. Just a small quibble, was it not 1m worldwide?
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