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Wiggo

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About Wiggo

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  • Birthday 05/09/1962
  1. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Facinating stuff. I would very much welcome any further detail on the above two statements!
  2. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I have just received this from one of our advisors and thought I would paste it as it has a relevance to some of the previous posts and I guess I thought some of you may find it of interest if you did not already see the interview. Wiggo............ "Anyway, there was an interview on BBC Newsnight last night Thursday 160905 between Jeremy Paxman and Dr. Adnan Shihab-Eldin Acting Secretary General of OPEC which was extremely interesting. The interview was to solicit a reaction from OPEC to Gordon Brown's inane public proclamation earlier in the week that the solution to the worlds high oil problem was not the G8 industralised countries but OPEC's moral duty to increase oil production to satisfy the market and to invest in more refineries etc. Dr. Shihab-Eldin's response took Brown to task and made a fool of him to the point that Gordon Brown's naivity was exposed and his tax on petrol stance folly. In essence Shihab interlectually was masterful but more to the point stated the following: There is no problem with the world's proven oil reserves, production capcities and production peaking was simply not an issue. OPEC are quite able to meet present demand but it is true they have to expediently increase investment in order to increase oil production to ensure growing exponential demand of China and India coupled with the Western Worlds continuing energy demand can be met. However he went on to say, the production levels of crude oil is not the real problem causing soaring oil prices as reflected at the petrol pumps in USA, Europe etc, it is simply insufficient refinery capacity unable to meet the unprecedented demand exacerbated by natural disasters such as Katrina. He pointed out that no one has questioned the industrial players and multi national oil companies etc why they have not made any investment in the downstream refining sector over the past two decades and why they sold off their inventories during a period of speculated and spiked oil price trading climate. In response to Jeremy paxman's question "What is OPEC's view on what a barrel of oil should be" The answer was "Oil price is unkely to fall below $40 per barrel and certainly is not likely to go above $70 per barrel. Rather it is likely to stabilise at somewhere between $40 and $60 per barrel" Unquote. What OPEC portray is totally in line with the analysis, projections and recommendations we made in our recent techno-Economic & Marketing Study. Nice not to be alone in ones views."
  3. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Hi Jim, I think what happened is that when Hurricane Katrina hit, it took out some refining capacity very quickly and that sent US wholesale prices rocketing for a few days, but only for a few days. They settled down pretty quickly and so that will filter back through the system soon enough. Also more modern refineries do have some ‘flexibility’ to alter their ‘product slate’ from their refining process, a very crude example (pardon the pun) would be a refinery tweaking it’s production to produce more gasoline and less aviation fuel (less aviation fuel needed in the northern hemisphere during winter) the downside to the refiner however is he may in doing so (just may) increase his lower end cheaper ‘residual products’ (fuels for ships for one example) but if the price for the gasoline is high enough they will absorb the low end loss. There are a whole load of factors affecting the price but one things for sure, if China and India keep on growing at the rates they are, and if their Governments continue to subsidise fuel to their industry and thus disguise the true price effect to their consumers than we are stuck with high (ish) prices for some time.
  4. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I am no chemist either but you are correct with regard to the quality of North Sea Crude’s. They are very ‘light’ and are used for higher value refining. I believe most of the crude oil refined in the UK refineries is imported but that does not change the economics that the chancellor still benefits greatly from the increase in the crude price as an exported product. I have listened to representatives of the hauliers and farmers on the TV suggesting that the Government have also benefited from the higher pump price with additional VAT and so he could ‘give some back’ but that is minimal in comparison to the revenue from the North Sea levies and I am surprised no one is using that as a rationale for some further support from the Government.
  5. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I suspect there will be a lot of ‘empty’ filling stations over the next day or two as the ‘normal’ pattern of buying fuel will be disrupted due to the fear, real or otherwise, of any blockades. Apparently my wife’s car was ½ full yesterday and she was not in any real need of fuel but she felt obliged to fill it up last evening anyway when under normal circumstances she would not have bothered for a few more days.
  6. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? With respect, that’s what can happen when enough people start spouting doom & gloom! Soon enough you hit a critical mass and what started out as an idea to blockade a refinery becomes a self fulfilling prophesy and people panic! As it happens, I had a meeting with a colleague this morning prior to him making his way up to Merseyside. He was concerned that if, just if, he could not get fuel, he might be stuck and not able to get home tomorrow in time to be at his wife’s bedside whilst she undergoes a small procedure in hospital! He has literally just called to say he got fuel on the M6 and the girl who took his money said it had been unusually quiet! Wiggo…..
  7. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I recently paid £1.09 for a 500ml bottle of Evian from a Shell Petrol Station! That makes it £2.18 for a litre of WATER ! Wiggo...... PS: Does anyone know what Evian is spelt backwards, Yep, Naive ! and aren't we just!
  8. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? It always does but prices have, in real terms come down considerably in the shops over the past 10 years and when you put that side by side with income growth, then it looks quite healthy and we are, in the main, better off. Because there is no duty on Gas then any spike in price is reflected immediately and is substantial when compared to petrol which is to some extent cushioned by the fact that 80% of the price was tax ie: if it goes up 50% which it has , it is 50% of the remaining 20% , not 50% of the total. Not so with fuels that do not have duty on them. Same as above, there is no duty on Aviation fuel so price hikes are reflected straightaway Let’s see how severe the downturn is. Members may wish to read in pretty much any of the papers about Saint Gobain (a French Company) wishing to make a £3.5Billion takeover of British Plaster board (BPB) and ask yourself why if things look so grim as according to some members? OPEC accounts for less than ½ of the worlds production and the power without question is with the Western Governments and their ability to tax fuel so heavily. The shock of the 70’s is one of the fundamental reasons Western Governments shifted some tax focus onto fuel to allow THEM the control, and not OPEC. And for the record, the last Oil Producer to ‘effectively’ turn off the tap was a Middle East Country that should (statisically and with all reason) have been producing around 4-6M Barrels per day (bpd) but steadfastly refused to shift above 2m Bpd. That Country was Iraq. I have every confidence it’s outputs will increase over the coming years. Also, Saudi Arabia has offered to Increase the level of Oil it pumps but it will be academic as there is no refining capacity to handle it, at this juncture. Correct I agree. Wiggo……
  9. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I have to tell you that I am deeply suspicious of the credibility of any organisation that meets on a Sunday afternoon/Evening for a regional meeting to make the types of decisions as detailed below. I bought fuel in the Commune of Nevez on the 26th August and it was 1.27€ which was a couple of Euro more than in was the next day in St Malo at 1.25€ so it really has gone up quickly in your area. If members wish to see the ‘real’ price for Petrol ‘today’ in France it can be found at the following Carrefore link. go into the main sight and pick ‘Petrol’ It is currently 1.335€ per litre and that’s a retail rate, not some “bunker rate”. http://www.day-tripper.net/zxo/zxo2sup-carrefourcite.html Sounds pessimistic to me but then some people just like trading on bad news! Your President sounds like one of those people. That would surprise me also as I can see no reason why these other National representative bodies would be fronting up for a Regional Brittany rant of fuel prices either, especially on a Sunday evening. You would think they had better things to do. I think that was the general tone of the BBC article I posted earlier in this debate and I have to concur, however, they imply over supply as the ‘main’ reason for the contraction, not just fuel prices. Good, real economics. Excellent, in other words even with this spike in oil prices you will not have to contract but you will be forced to run your business more efficiently. That is very good news and a bit of a bright spot in this missive of doom and gloom. Leasing/renting vehicles rather than purchase also makes good sense to me and is good to hear that you think therefore you might have to do so, which means you will have business for more than your current 60 trucks! This is positive. That may then force the French Government to address some of the ‘real’ issues with the French economy. Hope springs eternal! So, back to my original position, if you spread that cost on a full load of 44 tonnes with a value of say £40K, it adds about .38% to the value of the goods. Inflationary, yes, major issue, NO! I am sure there will be some. Sounds like a Cartel to me. You make it sound like you have been carrying the Economies of the world on your shoulders for years and now it has to come to a stop. It strikes me that only 12 months ago you were borderline profiteering at 18% profit although I have to say I don’t know if that is or is not standard for your industry But the irony is, if fuel prices had not been so high, Interest rates would undoubtedly have had to rise by more thus making your capital costs more expensive anyway. As it is, rates may well be on the way DOWN to compensate for this spike as it has very quickly taken the heat out of many economies. Wiggo……….
  10. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? More than 50% of Gulf Oil (IE: Oil from the Arabian Gulf) already goes South, IE: to Asia. Here is an interesting article from the BBC to add to the debate! http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/reports/archive/politics/lorries.shtml Wiggo...........
  11. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Actually Paul the Government are making far more than anyone in this as they take some 80+% of the retail price (or they did before the recent spikes in price) so the remaining 20-% is split between the producer and the Oil co’s and I can tell you for sure that the producers will get the lion share of the remaining 20-%. The reasons the Oil co’s make a lot of money is because they turn over massive amounts but their % profits are not substantially more than other industries, in general. Also, they don’t make it just from you and me at the pump, much of their business is in the downstream petrochemical products that go into, well into everything really, plastics, fertilizers all sorts of stuff. Wiggo……
  12. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Absolutely spot on! I have said on more than one occasion on this very forum, I don’t like this (UK) Government however your can’t have the inmates running the asylum! That’s funny! You might even find that traffic runs a little more smoothly, albeit a little more slowly! Wiggo……
  13. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Micheil, if it is was not so serious it would be funny but I gather Gordon Brown is still sticking will his 3 to 3.5% !! I have no doubt that the fuel price is higher than it should be, is slowing the economy and is hurting some industry more than others. So I guess the question is, how will your proposed action of blockading refineries stave off this downturn in the economy, which I have no doubt will happen. Where do you suggest the shortfalls in tax revenue come from? So households will have to curb their spending which will slow the economy and maybe take the heat out of the housing market (I am looking at UK specifics)! 12 months ago that was what the UK Government wanted, ie: to cool things off. Due to relatively strong world economies there has been a squeeze on refined oil supplies, couple that with recent issues that you can not control like ‘Katrina’ and things get a little more out of kilter than we would like. But the fact remains because of a general strengthening in the world economy over the past few years, we are suffering from our own success. Again, by your own admission only last year you were making 18% profit! I doubt Interest rates will have to go up any more in the short term in fact some economists suggest the next movement might, just might be down. I bet you a pound to a penny if the oil price was not where it was then interest rates would have been higher today and would still be very much on the upward trend which would make your capital cost of new trucks and the running costs more expensive. Tut tut Micheil, shame on you listening to and posting rumours. It is normaly your voice of reason on these forums suggesting members stick to facts. That said, I am not surprised if this sort of protest may be being considered in the UK but that does not make it right or any less silly or potentially destructive than the protests in France. The irony is, this rise is nothing to do with the Government this time, in fact the UK Government has actually suspended it’s revenue increases on fuel at this juncture, aside from the VAT of course. As it happens, I don’t mind too much if they do reduce the tax take, I am all for a lower tax take in general, but the problem is (in the UK) that the Government has set out it’s spending targets and it needs a certain revenue to fulfil the pledges and as we agree the economy is falling short of projection so they already have a shortfall. Now you and your colleagues wish to increase that shortfall even further. That still does not make the blockading of refineries right! Out of all the groups you mention I do have some sympathy for the taxi drivers, at least the ‘London regulated type’ because they have one hell of a process to go through to allow them to raise their prices to make any allowance for cost increases. The haulage firms can and will pass on those increased costs in their own pricing, as will the ferry companies, the airlines, the butchers the bakers and the candlestick makers. Wiggo……….
  14. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? I am no economist either but I do have a reasonable 'in' on the oil market through my business. I also love a good debate ! Wiggo
  15. Re: A Looming Fuel Crisis in France? Yes, people will possibly curtail some journeys a little if they feel that Fuel is expensive and that will result in less fuel being sold which will result in less tax revenue which will also lead to gradual and default lowering of fuel prices because the pressure will be off supplies and so it continues and the natural supply and demand cycle will continue unabated, with a possible bit of tinkering with interest rates up and down to balance (or try to balance) as we go along. What we don’t need and what encouraged me to respond to this thread initially is a knee jerk reaction from an industry whom I am sure feels a little pressured right now but are prepared to put the economy in jeopardy for their short term selfish concerns. I am not trying to have a pop at Micheil and/or Jacqui but by their own admission, 12 months or so ago they were making 18% profit (very nice thank you) on a particular run, now it’s down to 6% (still a profit) if they are lucky so they are prepared to, and I quote, “support whatever action is taken” to re-establish the staus-quo. Well I am sorry but I just do not think that is the right attitude! I am sure it is not easy for them and/or the haulage business in general but I am equally sure things will settle down, and we don’t need (the economy in general) knee jerk maverick action. I don’t like this Government (UK) but I do know that they are not that daft! Cunning, maybe, snide and generally manipulative with the truth for sure, but they are not stupid and they have access to some of the best advisory talent in the Country and if they really thought the economy was going to ‘hell in a hand basket’ because of high fuel prices, they would act and reduce it, and they could act and reduce it for the very reason that they control 80% (there or there about) of the price. Back in the 70’s, they did not, and we were at the mercy of OPEC and when the oil prices fluctuated in double digits then we really caught a cold. Now, oil prices are high but we are still in a growth period! Right that’s my final rant on this subject (unless someone wants to rattle my cage a little more) Wiggo……
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