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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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What a detailed and interesting explanation Jonno. The US Dollar was and still is the benchmark for world finance. Back in the day I remember well that all shipping/airfreight costs were structured around the US Dollar - at the time, and for a long time US$2.40 = £1.

I have been travelling around Europe for many years now and in the days before the Euro I never had an incling as to weather a litre of petrol or a loaf of bread was cheaper say in Belgium than France, Germany, Holland, Portugal, Italy, Austria or Switzerland. I had pockets with so much loose shrapnel of Francs, Marks, Lire, Pesetas etc... and mixed paper money quite a lot of which I still have lying around !

Now I know exactly what a Euro can buy in European countries.

 

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9 hours ago, hhvferry said:

The full article is a posting on worldeconomics.com - https://www.worldeconomics.com/GlobalPriceIndexes/WorldPriceIndex/WPI.efp

It would be more honest if sources were quoted by posters.

But, hmm, I must be a simpleton, because a lot of this economic stuff is going over my head. I did note, though, a mention of labour costs in the Economist article. That was something I put in my earlier post. I still don't understand it, though. It stands to reason that different countries in the Eurozone are going to have different prices for the same goods because of local taxation, pay rates, etc. In my simple mind, I don't see a problem with that, and indeed it allows each country to manage its own affairs - the much-vaunted sovereignty (which the present UK government quite rightly says we have always had, even during EU membership).

The graph here shows the pound-euro exchange rate over eighteen years. If we're talking "stress", this particular evidence would point to a pound which has gradually weakened to its present miserable state.

5a02d47ba50a6_pound-euroover18years.thumb.GIF.2bb323e6f498c64ef00ca30e814f6550.GIF

The graph starts at 4 Jan 1999 and ends today (08/11/2017). I have taken it from https://www.pounds2euro.com/Charts.

"The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1 (US$1.1743). Physical euro coins and banknotes entered into circulation on 1 January 2002." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro)

Now that's simple enough for me to understand!

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1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

It would be more honest if sources were quoted by posters.

But, hmm, I must be a simpleton, because a lot of this economic stuff is going over my head. I did note, though, a mention of labour costs in the Economist article. That was something I put in my earlier post. I still don't understand it, though. It stands to reason that different countries in the Eurozone are going to have different prices for the same goods because of local taxation, pay rates, etc. In my simple mind, I don't see a problem with that, and indeed it allows each country to manage its own affairs - the much-vaunted sovereignty (which the present UK government quite rightly says we have always had, even during EU membership).

The graph here shows the pound-euro exchange rate over eighteen years. If we're talking "stress", this particular evidence would point to a pound which has gradually weakened to its present miserable state.

5a02d47ba50a6_pound-euroover18years.thumb.GIF.2bb323e6f498c64ef00ca30e814f6550.GIF

The graph starts at 4 Jan 1999 and ends today (08/11/2017). I have taken it from https://www.pounds2euro.com/Charts.

"The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1 (US$1.1743). Physical euro coins and banknotes entered into circulation on 1 January 2002." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro)

Now that's simple enough for me to understand!

Honesty? I did say it was the WPI... I'd also argue that if you want something difficult to be read, reproduce it if it's in the public domain rather than post a link as many won't bother opening it which has been proven in the past on these pages... Horse to water etc. etc. Look at the engagement since the post, it did the trick didn't it.

Jardinier, your post highlights one of the fundamental faults of a single currency being used by separate nations, taxation. Single currency valuation actually means that individual nations can't manage their own affairs. It's why the Euro was the major enabler of the crash of 2009.

Eurozone EU members couldn't devalue to protect themselves, to remain competitive and it's the overriding reason why many nations now have an overvalued currency compared to their actual economic output and are struggling and why there is no longer a thriving competitive European market place hence the high levels of unemployment.

It's is the reason why free movement is the cornerstone of it all. Allowing individuals the ability to roam unhindered to saturate areas of high wealth and high employment papers over the cracks. It allows those with an undervalued currency to thrive even more leaving those nations with an overvalued currency to struggle even more as their countrymen leave in droves raising the cost of living for those that remain.

It's simple maths with a frightening snowball effect.

 

 

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As the UK government doesn't seem capable of producing reports on the possible Brexit options and consequences it is fortunate that the EU has done it's homework. The EU reports are very comprehensive and make interesting reading giving both pro's and con's of the alternative choices.

 

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/ukevents/brexit/brexitstudies.html

 

 

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I made a post on the "Port Border Issues" thread that has now, along with others, been deleted. The post I made expressed my opinion that on a forum largely devoted to cross channel transport it is hard to see how, on which ever side of the fence you sit, any topic does not have a Brexit angle. I'm not sure if the post was removed because of the sentiments expressed or where they were expressed as I wasn't given the courtesy of an explanation. I sincerely hope that nobody takes offence at the last sentence but I am genuinely confused as to why the original post disappeared.

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Your post, along with about 20 others, was removed because of repeated failure of posters to heed to site rules about steering clear of politics.  It was made clear in Jim’s post about this matter that posts in violation of this policy will be removed without further notice, and I put up two further posts in the Port Issues thread advising posters of the rules.  I had hoped that these would be enough for the forum to moderate itself, but further posts this morning from several posters (including yourself) made it clear that this was not going to be the case.  It became evident that certain posters were refusing to steer clear of politics, despite the warnings, and it should therefore be no surprise that the posts were removed without further warning or explanation.  Frankly, we are getting a bit sick and tired of the fact that the message does not seem to be getting across, and accusations of “discourtesy” in the face of willful and repeated site rule violation does not go down well.

For the sake of clarification (again):  The Port Issues thread was started for discussion of the practical implications of border policing at ports in a post-Brexit world.  That is a fair enough topic to discuss.  But disussion of the rights and wrongs of Brexit is political, strongly felt on both sides, and does not belong anywhere on the site other than in this dedicated thread.  

This morning, when it was clear that the warnings against turning the Ports Issues thread into another political discussion about Brexit were being ignored, I had two choices: either merge the whole lot into this thread, or remove the sequence of political posts in the thread that had developed.  I chose the former out of respect to the genuine nature of the question posed by the OP and he fact that this was a discussion worth having under its own thread.

 

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3 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Your post, along with about 20 others, was removed because of repeated failure of posters to heed to site rules about steering clear of politics.  It was made clear in Jim’s post about this matter that posts in violation of this policy will be removed without further notice, and I put up two further posts in the Port Issues thread advising posters of the rules.  I had hoped that these would be enough for the forum to moderate itself, but further posts this morning from several posters (including yourself) made it clear that this was not going to be the case.  It became evident that certain posters were refusing to steer clear of politics, despite the warnings, and it should therefore be no surprise that the posts were removed without further warning or explanation.  Frankly, we are getting a bit sick and tired of the fact that the message does not seem to be getting across, and accusations of “discourtesy” in the face of willful and repeated site rule violation does not go down well.

For the sake of clarification (again):  The Port Issues thread was started for discussion of the practical implications of border policing at ports in a post-Brexit world.  That is a fair enough topic to discuss.  But disussion of the rights and wrongs of Brexit is political, strongly felt on both sides, and does not belong anywhere on the site other than in this dedicated thread.  

This morning, when it was clear that the warnings against turning the Ports Issues thread into another political discussion about Brexit were being ignored, I had two choices: either merge the whole lot into this thread, or remove the political thread that had developed.  I chose the former out of respect to the genuine nature of the question posed by the OP and he fact that this was a discussion worth having under its own thread.

 

I do respect your position as a moderator for BFE but it is very difficult for members not to be able to discuss freely the most important issue facing the country and Europe at the moment.

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People can freely discuss the issue.  They can discuss the politics here, and they can discuss the many practical implications in the appropriate threads.  There is no wish to stifle discussion, and there is no ban on using the word “Brexit” anywhere where it is relevant.  But what we don’t want to happen is to return to where we were 12-18 months ago, when just about every thread that started with a particular practicality of Brexit ended up turning into a discussion of people’s views about the rights and wrongs of Brexit in principle.  And that’s what started to happen again in the Ports Issues thread over the past couple of days.

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5 minutes ago, Gareth said:

People can freely discuss the issue.  They can discuss the politics here, and they can discuss the many practical implications in the appropriate threads.  There is no wish to stifle discussion, and there is no ban on using the word “Brexit” anywhere where it is relevant.  But what we don’t want to happen is to return to where we were 12-18 months ago, when just about every thread that started with a particular practicality of Brexit ended up turning into a discussion of people’s views about the rights and wrongs of Brexit in principle.  And that’s what started to happen again in the Ports Issues thread over the past couple of days.

Thanks for your reply.Can we then have a thread where we are free to discuss all matters regarding Brexit.

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59 minutes ago, imprimerie said:

Can we then have a thread where we are free to discuss all matters regarding Brexit.

Yes, sorry, I didn’t mean to convey that this thread is ONLY for politics.  You can discuss anything you like about Brexit in this one.

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8 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Yes, sorry, I didn’t mean to convey that this thread is ONLY for politics.  You can discuss anything you like about Brexit in this one.

Thanks for clarifying that we can post freely about Brexit on this thread.

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9 minutes ago, imprimerie said:

Thanks for clarifying that we can post freely about Brexit on this thread.

Well it is headed "General Discussions on Brexit" after all.....9_9

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20 hours ago, imprimerie said:

I do respect your position as a moderator for BFE but it is very difficult for members not to be able to discuss freely the most important issue facing the country and Europe at the moment.

Imprimerie I concur completely with that comment; I get the impression that like me you have interests in both France and the UK and therefore the consequences of where the current Brexit negotiations end up could be huge. My wife lives (most of the time) in the UK and works there too whereas my work is in France and I divide any spare time between the two. If the UK really does pull out of Europe lock, stock and barrel then the consequences for our business could be huge. As this is inherently a site dedicated to our love (or otherwise) of a certain ferry company I prefer not to air those worries here - but that's my choice.

I also understand why certain members may have been taken aback by Gareth's recent intervention. As one of the most regular contributors who also wears a moderators hat,  he could be perceived as being judge, jury and executioner at the same time. But whereas most of us dip in and out of the forums on a whim Gareth should I think be congratulated for keeping a regular eye on what goes on, despite a busy work schedule, and applies a fair and balanced view on all subjects.

For those who make infrequent comments, for whatever reason, it's not easy to keep up to date with threads, the direction they are heading and the directives needed to keep the discussion on the straight and narrow As long as there our boundaries clearly  in place (which there now are) there is no reason why it shouldn't continue to be as lively as ever.

Chris

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I don't think anyone would try to argue that the mods are at times placed in a very difficult position and they do a very important job for us all. I suppose it's a bit like an 18th centuary hangmans job. A job that was needed, where the majority always ended up happy but the guy at the end of the rope always felt put out.:)

@Gareth, don't forget what I said last year next time you're in Poole.

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19 hours ago, Fine Whine said:

Imprimerie I concur completely with that comment; I get the impression that like me you have interests in both France and the UK and therefore the consequences of where the current Brexit negotiations end up could be huge. My wife lives (most of the time) in the UK and works there too whereas my work is in France and I divide any spare time between the two. If the UK really does pull out of Europe lock, stock and barrel then the consequences for our business could be huge. As this is inherently a site dedicated to our love (or otherwise) of a certain ferry company I prefer not to air those worries here - but that's my choice.

I also understand why certain members may have been taken aback by Gareth's recent intervention. As one of the most regular contributors who also wears a moderators hat,  he could be perceived as being judge, jury and executioner at the same time. But whereas most of us dip in and out of the forums on a whim Gareth should I think be congratulated for keeping a regular eye on what goes on, despite a busy work schedule, and applies a fair and balanced view on all subjects.

For those who make infrequent comments, for whatever reason, it's not easy to keep up to date with threads, the direction they are heading and the directives needed to keep the discussion on the straight and narrow As long as there our boundaries clearly  in place (which there now are) there is no reason why it shouldn't continue to be as lively as ever.

Chris

Thanks for a post  explaining clearly the consequences for you regarding Brexit.   The Pro-European case needs to be explained more clearly than it has been to date.For example if there is a hard Brexit what will happen to French school visits to the UK?  At the moment the pupils can travel with an ID card.If we have a "hard Brexit" then passports will be required. A Carte d'Identité costs nothing whereas a passport costs 90 Euros.Can a family afford that as well as the cost of the school trip? The outcome ?  Imprimerie.

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1 hour ago, imprimerie said:

Thanks for a post  explaining clearly the consequences for you regarding Brexit.   The Pro-European case needs to be explained more clearly than it has been to date.For example if there is a hard Brexit what will happen to French school visits to the UK?  At the moment the pupils can travel with an ID card.If we have a "hard Brexit" then passports will be required. A Carte d'Identité costs nothing whereas a passport costs 90 Euros.Can a family afford that as well as the cost of the school trip? The outcome ?  Imprimerie.

The problem imprimerie is that we have a Prime Minister that is so obsessive that she doesn't actually care if things get worse for everyone and so incompetent that she's quite happy to admit it.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-government-analysis-theresa-may-secret-economic-impact-assessments-reports-a8190636.html

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Brexit for the Crown Dependencies and Protocol 3 - I hope this is in the right place - although I don't like opening up" links" myself I thought this PDF gives a slightly  different view of the Crown Dependencies and the work being done by the IOM Government:  Some may find it boring...............sorry

https://www.gov.im/media/1356455/2017-04-28-council-of-ministers-fourth-interim-report-v2.pdf

 

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Read a article this week that after Brexit a UK driving licence will not be accepted in the EU and we will all have to apply for a International Driving Permit

with the associated costs, seems to me the EU are putting as many speed bumps as they can find to punish the UK for wanting to leave their club.

What is next the dreaded Green card as our UK insurance will not apply and  I hate to think about the Pet Passport scheme.

On personal level it looks like our French adventures will cease and I wonder how it will affect anybody who rents their gites to the Brits

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Read a article this week that after Brexit a UK driving licence will not be accepted in the EU and we will all have to apply for a International Driving Permit

Why should that be? You can use your UK licence elsewhere in the world without necessarily needing an international driving permit - in North America and New Zealand to my personal knowledge for example. UK insurance will cover you wherever the policy states.

I can't see any incentive for the EU to discourage Brits from holidaying abroad and spending much wanted tourist cash over there.

The real danger is more likely to be in the business world, the financial sector where they wish to compete with us and of course using the excuse of incompatible specifications on manufactured goods to discourage our exports. The latter issue is already a much discussed one as to whether the EU and UK will recognise each other's standards which in practice thet they will need to be essentially the same and in turn questions the point of Brexit altogether.

An example is that if the UK agrees a trade deal with the USA we may need to accept chlorinated chicken which is banned by the EU so if we use it in foodstuffs then these would not be accepted by the EU.

But I agree, we are taking something that works and has many practical advantages and unravelling it all to our disadvantage and all because of political issues that could almost certainly have been resolved within the EU had our politicians had the competence to use the UK's economic weight to forge internal alliances to head off the Federal Europe project and take a more realistic approach to immigration and free movement which most of the member countries in the EU would be probably willing to sign up to as the moves towards populism are already demonstrating, not to mention Eastern Europe already tending to go its own way. Basically the Brussels bureaucracy needs its wings clipped. Unfortunately the UK politicians have been unable to rise above party politics and soundbites and so David Cameron ended up going to Brussels with a totally UK centric approach which united the EU countries against us rather than building relationships for fundamental reform.

Such is progress.

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Just now, cvabishop said:

Why should that be? You can use your UK licence elsewhere in the world without necessarily needing an international driving permit - in North America and New Zealand to my personal knowledge for example. UK insurance will cover you wherever the policy states.

Quite right. As usual it's just scare tactics trying to sow the seeds of doubt. People from Jersey, Switzerland and Norway drive in the EU without any special documentation, so why should we be any different next year? An international license (if it becomes necessary) costs £5.50 and can be bought at a post office so most people should be able to work it out. And if they can't then they should probably avoid driving on foreign roads anyway. Ed. 

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