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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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14 minutes ago, jonno said:

To live in fear of what a single union can do to us, the world's 5th largest economy, could be interpreted as having a little Britain attitude rather than the opposite. Do other countries within the world's top ten economies, the US, China, Japan, India, Brazil & Canada live in fear... No they don't, so why should we?

5th largest economy? To be balanced 5th to 7th largest economy depending who you believe. The fact is whether we are the 5th, 6th or 7th largest economy we achieved that position because we are members of the EU not in spite of it. You may well be right things may be wonderful in 15 - 20 years time but it's the here and now that concerns me and many others. The countries you mention as "not living in fear" are already in trading blocks themselves and have the expertise in negotiating and systems in place to trade effectively, we don't.

 

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We haven't begun to see the economic consequences of leaving the EU yet as we haven't left companies are still trading on old deals etc, I'm sure the last polling I saw didn't show a massive swing for a leave vote .

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3 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

We haven't begun to see the economic consequences of leaving the EU yet as we haven't left companies are still trading on old deals etc, I'm sure the last polling I saw didn't show a massive swing for a leave vote .

You are quite right Neil, when some of the countries best paid jobs start moving to the continent and the UK treasury starts taking the hit in lower tax receipts the electorate will not be happy. With regards to a massive swing for support of Brexit I think you'll find it might be someone whistling to keep his spirits up.:)

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All the pollscI have seen say that there is a mass of people swinging to Remain as they are waking up and smelling the coffee.  Cannot point to individual sources, but can say that these stories appear from various places online and in the press.  Obviously not the Mail or Express, though....😉

Many Leave voters are apparently changing their minds due to the hard Brexit they did not expect.  

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If the "someone" you're referring to is me then I can assure you I have no need to "keep my spirits up"; I am pleased that the process is finally underway and as things become clearer as the negotiations progress we should have more meaningful substance to talk about.  With the poll I was just reporting something I saw reported (on Sky News I think) but have to concede I don't have the reference.

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1 minute ago, Khaines said:

All the pollscI have seen say that there is a mass of people swinging to Remain as they are waking up and smelling the coffee.  Cannot point to individual sources, but can say that these stories appear from various places online and in the press.  Obviously not the Mail or Express, though....😉

Many Leave voters are apparently changing their minds due to the hard Brexit they did not expect.  

Brigitte I just don't think this is true.  All the research had shown there are very few Leave voters that regret the way they voted.

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28 minutes ago, Gareth said:

If the "someone" you're referring to is me then I can assure you I have no need to "keep my spirits up";

What on earth made you think I was referring to you Gareth? Glad to hear your contented though, the sun is shining, spring is here, what's not to feel happy about?

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9 minutes ago, G4rth said:

What on earth made you think I was referring to you Gareth? Glad to hear your contented though, the sun is shining, spring is here, what's not to feel happy about?

That's more like it G4rth! Glad you're feeling perkier :)

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15 minutes ago, Gareth said:

That's more like it G4rth! Glad you're feeling perkier :)

I'm always perky Gareth, in a Victor Meldrew sort of way.

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What if Mrs May comes back with a deal that is not up to her demands :

Should parliament decide whether to accept it or not?

Should the people decide in a second referendum?

Should there be a General Election and let the nation decide?

 

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May has said she will just walk away if she doesn't get what she wants. She's going to have a hard job with India who will want free movement in exchange for trade.  A second referendum at the moment is unlikely, as is a General Election.  It will take, I reckon, May and her merry men to so mess everything up that no confidence is called in her.  Then the vultures will start circling and her PM-ship click will be ticking faster than the Brexit one.   Parliament doesn't seem to have much say in anything at the moment.

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Q1: Yes, that has already been promised to parliament.

Q2: No, that was debated in parliament and there was very little support for a second referendum in either chamber of the House.

Q3: No, the timing of the next General Election is governed by the law which states it will be in 2020. For that legal situation to be overruled, two thirds of MPs would have to vote to dissolve parliament. It is not in Mrs May's gift to call an election.

Edited by Gareth

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A bit more on the issue of a general election. (It's slightly off-topic, but relevant to imprimerie's question).  The only way Mrs May could call an election herself is by first legislating to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.  She could probably do this is she wanted, and many in her party think this is what she should do.  There is very little doubt that an election now would result in the return of Mrs May's government with a huge landslide.

Those arguing for an election are saying that she will need a bigger majority to be in a stronger position to get all the Brexit legislation through.  I believe her own view is that, whilst an election might be politically expedient, the timing right now as the negotiation with the EU are beginning would waste a valuable part of the 2-year period and would create uncertainty at a time when the country needs no more of that.  

The legislation to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act would probably take a month or two to go through Parliament, then there would have to be a 2 or 3 month campaigning period.  That means the earliest an election could be held would probably be in the Autumn. By then we've wasted 6 months making no progress with the EU.

So I think a general election at this stage will be highly unlikely.

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Don't know if anyone has pointed this out yet?yes people voted to leave but nearly 26 percent of the people did not vote.the reason that was given last year was because everyone thought the vote would be to stay in the EU.also the vote I think was just under 74 percent so the government of the day could if they wish call another vote due to 75 percent vote not being reached.so that opens a new point.all the people I have spoke to all said the same they voted out because immigration ,yet people are now saying immigration will get worse after we leave the EU.so what was the point of voting in the first place.?none of us and at the moment and the government has not got a clue either.you listen to Davies ,Johnson,and the rest of them I feel if  I am watching a cartoon ,any village idiot can see we are in a ship with no rudder or radar.now that ex government person is saying we will go to war to keep Gibraltar is the man sane?these people are leading U.S. Into a unknown future be sure of that.better or worse I don't know but I for one think it is for the worse.my last point why were the over 16s not allowed to vote because when it comes into force they will 18 and it is there future We are messing with.

 

 

 

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It's an interesting one the election subject the conservatives never wanted it it was a Lib Dem idea, I think the only way we might get an early election and have to go through the process pointed out above is if a, Labour have a change of voting tactics and b, Mrs Mays rebellious back benchers get out of hand neither very likely but Mrs May would get a larger majority well in England anyway.

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19 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Q1: Yes, that has already been promised to parliament.

Q2: No, that was debated in parliament and there was very little support for a second referendum in either chamber of the House.

Q3: No, the timing of the next General Election is governed by the law which states it will be in 2020. For that legal situation to be overruled, two thirds of MPs would have to vote to dissolve parliament. It is not in Mrs May's gift to call an election.

While you are correct on all three points Gareth there is plenty of room for a fudge around point 2. There is only one thing that politicians think more important than claiming credit for a successful negotiation and that is finding someone to blame for an unsuccessful one, like the electorate perhaps. May has quite rightly said, that "the referendum cannot be re-run" that is clearly true. She has also said that a commitment to a referendum on a final deal would inevitably lead to a worst deal for the UK. That is also clearly true. However once a final deal is proposed this argument disappears. In her statement about a second Scottish Independence Referendum she took the line that it would be unfair for the Scottish electorate to make a decision without being "in possession of all the facts". A statement highly relevant to the 2016 EU referendum. It is easy to argue that any referendum on the final EU deal would not be re-running the origional referendum as the question would be totally different. Who could argue that a referendum without full posession of the facts is fair? Clearly not Theresa Mary May she has already said so.

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49 minutes ago, Gareth said:

A bit more on the issue of a general election. (It's slightly off-topic, but relevant to imprimerie's question).  The only way Mrs May could call an election herself is by first legislating to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

That would be one way Gareth but she would need more that a simple majority to do so. She could also do it by putting forward a motion of no confidence in the government which Jeremy Corbin has already said the Labour Party would support so she would get the necessary majority. Although this course of action would be quicker, if she wanted to take the no confidence route, she has probably missed the boat.

Edited by G4rth

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3 hours ago, hhvferry said:

This is one of those absolutely infuriating Brexit soundbites - talking Britain down etc etc.

It's not living in fear; it's living in fact. 

Sorry hhv I disagree, How I am I talking Britain down? 

I voted to leave and I don't think we are little Britain at all. I'm not the one posting on here in regard to what the EU will do to harm us when all the indications show a hard line on either side will be more damaging to the remaining 27 members and no one wants that. 

I think we'll be stronger, I think many of the other members would be stronger too if they followed suit. 

We don't need and frankly shouldn't allow any form of foreign power dictating to us how to run any aspect of the UK especially when more than half of the members are so embroiled that they are just a country in name only and are now vassal states. Neither should we support or pay into a budget that funds a separate Euro-wide militarised police force which is under the control of Brussels and can overrule any lack of consent by the state concerned. So far 7 members have joined with others showing very strong interest, although Germany never will as their constitution forbids it. I think it's also worth noting that officers within the force don't have to be from the EU, for instance Turkey supplies manpower.

We then have the Lisbon Treaty, a document so murky that many of the articles can be interpreted any way the reader wishes. A treaty which will devolve all criminal justice to the "Central Authorities" under the inquisitorial model...Do we really want criminal trials without a jury? Forget the Crown Prosecution Service, that would be devolved to Brussels. Corpus Juris effectively erases the legal safeguards of individual freedom which have been the basis of our system since the Magna Carta. It also signals the end of Habeas Corpus .

Is this what we signed up for?.

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23 minutes ago, jonno said:

Sorry hhv I disagree, How I am I talking Britain down? 

I voted to leave and I don't think we are little Britain at all. I'm not the one posting on here in regard to what the EU will do to harm us when all the indications show a hard line on either side will be more damaging to the remaining 27 members and no one wants that. 

I think we'll be stronger, I think many of the other members would be stronger too if they followed suit. 

We don't need and frankly shouldn't allow any form of foreign power dictating to us how to run any aspect of the UK especially when more than half of the members are so embroiled that they are just a country in name only and are now vassal states. Neither should we support or pay into a budget that funds a separate Euro-wide militarised police force which is under the control of Brussels and can overrule any lack of consent by the state concerned. So far 7 members have joined with others showing very strong interest, although Germany never will as their constitution forbids it. I think it's also worth noting that officers within the force don't have to be from the EU, for instance Turkey supplies manpower.

We then have the Lisbon Treaty, a document so murky that many of the articles can be interpreted any way the reader wishes. A treaty which will devolve all criminal justice to the "Central Authorities" under the inquisitorial model...Do we really want criminal trials without a jury? Forget the Crown Prosecution Service, that would be devolved to Brussels. Corpus Juris effectively erases the legal safeguards of individual freedom which have been the basis of our system since the Magna Carta. It also signals the end of Habeas Corpus .

Is this what we signed up for?.

The problem that you have with your argument is the word "think".A very dangerous, chancey ,risky path to take the country down.

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 very interesting about foriegn power dictating to us,what have we done for the past 2 to 3 hundred years..another point our country is run mostly by foreign companies ie nuclear power car companies,railways,ferries.i could keep going on and on,why cannot people understand we live in a global market and cannot cherry pick what we want.i think a lot of people who voted to leave was about immigration and nothing else in my opinion ....right or wrong.so please stop and  say we dont want foriegn countrys dictating to us it has being happening for years and years and nothing will change.just look what was said in the commons the other day david davies said he was going to  transfer the rules of the eu into the  leagal rules of the uk.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, imprimerie said:

The problem that you have with your argument is the word "think".A very dangerous, chancey ,risky path to take the country down.

The only part of what I wrote belonging in the realm of personal opinion was that other states would be stronger, the rest is fact... It's all in the The Velson Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty which are in the public domain for anyone to download.

Has anyone read these at any time since their inception? They are  two thirds of the reason why I voted to leave. If we'd signed up to Schengen or the euro, I would have wanted out sooner as one is naive created by those wearing rose coloured spectacles and the other was always going to lead to financial disaster.

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7 hours ago, jonno said:

The only part of what I wrote belonging in the realm of personal opinion was that other states would be stronger, the rest is fact... It's all in the The Velson Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty which are in the public domain for anyone to download.

Has anyone read these at any time since their inception? They are  two thirds of the reason why I voted to leave. If we'd signed up to Schengen or the euro, I would have wanted out sooner as one is naive created by those wearing rose coloured spectacles and the other was always going to lead to financial disaster.

It is not and can't be fact  about the outcome of Brexit.It is all about the hope and chance that everything will turn out for the better.I find that a reckless approach in running a country.What if Mrs May doesn't get the deal she wants?Would Britain walk away from Europe without paying it's debts and upsetting our largest trading block?

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