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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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I like to be in control of my holidays. At this time of year I start planning next year's trips.

Until March 22nd 2019, it is clear that travel requirements are as in the past.

 After that date ?

The Brexit referendum was in June 2016. The politicians, apart from squabbling in the last two years, haven't done anything to make things clear about subsequent travel arrangements.

I am not inclined to book any continental travel which could end up with massive emigration/immigration queues, last minute bureaucratic requirements for: visas, international driving licenses, green cards and anything else put in place by the politicians.

If I am not alone, other people will also hold back on travel plans and this uncertainty will impact on the UK and EU states economies via tourism (not to mention the finances of Brittany Ferries).

Does anyone know what's happening?

 

 

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1 hour ago, hhvferry said:

I think that's the biggest issue. The likelihood is that, after a few more years of demographic churn, the population will be clearly majority in favour of membership.

So we we will inevitably re-apply ten or 20 years down the line but many of the opt outs, rebates, massive concessions and UK favourable/UK driven legislation that made our membership so valuable will have been lost along the way.

By that time the whole thing could have blown apart, who knows.  I don't think that will happen but there may be others that leave or the EU goes back more along the lines of the Common Market we originally joined.

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1 hour ago, westy said:

I like to be in control of my holidays. At this time of year I start planning next year's trips.

Until March 22nd 2019, it is clear that travel requirements are as in the past.

 After that date ?

The Brexit referendum was in June 2016. The politicians, apart from squabbling in the last two years, haven't done anything to make things clear about subsequent travel arrangements.

I am not inclined to book any continental travel which could end up with massive emigration/immigration queues, last minute bureaucratic requirements for: visas, international driving licenses, green cards and anything else put in place by the politicians.

If I am not alone, other people will also hold back on travel plans and this uncertainty will impact on the UK and EU states economies via tourism (not to mention the finances of Brittany Ferries).

Does anyone know what's happening?

 

 

We live in Spain but spend 10 weeks in summer in the British Isles to see our grandchildren. I have already booked our return Portsmouth/Santander in September and would have booked Connemara to Cork if the schedule had been announced. This is how we have chosen to live our retirement. We have taken what precautions we can, my wife has taken dual nationality in Ireland (from her grandfather) so our right to remain in Spain is guaranteed except that I will now be her dependant for residency purposes. That was our personal initiative we do what we can. I have a Spanish driving licence so driving in Europe should be OK but to enter schengin borders I will need a visa my wife will not. As regards everything else from finance to passports is a complete unknown.

Edited by JohnMustow

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i lived in spain for 13 years and loved it but with this brexit thing we decided to move back.if there is no deal the pound will hit the floor also many French and Spanish friends say it is a nighmare waiting to happen to ex pats what they read and hear watch on TVs and listen on the radio should scare the ex pats if there is brexit deal.

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5 minutes ago, nodwad said:

i lived in spain for 13 years and loved it but with this brexit thing we decided to move back.if there is no deal the pound will hit the floor also many French and Spanish friends say it is a nighmare waiting to happen to ex pats what they read and hear watch on TVs and listen on the radio should scare the ex pats if there is brexit deal.

We are told by the U.K. Government that Britain should prosper as never before once we are free of the shackles of the EU so I would expect the pound to rise dramatically after March next year so we will be OK won’t we? I am not sure I would want to live in a country as xenophobic as England seems to have become so I relying on Theresa to get this right. Some hope! 

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12 hours ago, Solo said:

Exactly right Ed.

Jardinier, you don't trust the figures for jobs being created but you believe it when your told house prices will drop by 30% and the rest of project fear.

We need to take everything we are told with a pinch of salt, from both sides.  Personally I think it could be hard for a while but in the long term it will balance out, remember the EU countries need to trade with us and us with them, if there is no deal smaller deals will be worked out for each sector over the next few years.

Well, thanks for letting me know what I believe. Where did I say that I believe that stuff about house prices? I merely quoted Carney. He says it could happen, yet you interpret me quoting that info as me saying it will!

As for the numbers of jobs being created, I suggest you study the way newspapers express things, and I think you'll conclude I am right about them using different words to reflect their political standpoint. After all, we all do that! It's not that I don't trust numbers of jobs being created, it's simply that saying "dozens" means nothing more than the number will be over 24. If Chanel were going to create 300 or 400 jobs, the newspapers would be reporting that as "hundreds".

I hope that Ed is right, but I fear he isn't. But like everyone else, I just don't know.

I don't understand how a country can potentially lose a great trading agreement with the biggest trading bloc in the world without a fairly severe setback to its own economy. And I don't accept that the EU needs to trade with us. Yes, sure, it's better all round if they do, but their need is far less than the UK's need to trade with them, and so they will always have the upper hand in trade negotiations.

Edited by Jardinier

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What part of government are you talking about remainers or brexit ?one side we are going to prosper and other are saying no deal means massive job losses.i know who I believe and that is not Johnson and his mob .who in the right sense would take any notice of them two .

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8 hours ago, nodwad said:

What part of government are you talking about remainers or brexit ?one side we are going to prosper and other are saying no deal means massive job losses.i know who I believe and that is not Johnson and his mob .who in the right sense would take any notice of them two .

I certainly see right through Johnson and his cronies.  I have said before and will say again.  Brexit is non other than a ruse for the very rich to hide their money from EU rules on tax havens.  Most of the main Brexit donors are filthy rich people in the millionaire, billionaire category,   With all that has come to light over the past few years that the leave campaign has neglected to say is coming to light and still they carry on down this path.  May is just the tail being wagged by the dog, if she had any common sense she would back away from all this, but her stubbornness will not let her.  She is scared of upsetting these money men.  Any PM worth their salt would call a halt to the entire procedings out of pure morality and sense.  Not her.

Anyone still thinking Brexit is about the will of the people is as stupid as she is.

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Brigitte, have you finished ranting?

I don’t think that is a very helpful contribution to the discussion at all.

Two points to make by way of response. Firstly, you cannot dismiss 17 million votes as “not being to do with the will of the people”. (Just as you cannot dismiss the 16 million votes on the other side either - hence the discussion we are starting to have about the divided nation). Secondly, all “donors” to all political causes are rich.  That is how they are able to be donors.  I don’t see what where the money supporting each side is coming from has to do with the substance of the debate.

Final point:  Calling people “stupid” for views that they hold is not in keeping with the spirit of this forum. 😉

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The country is split,the government is split we can go on for ever putting our views over what we think is the right way to go about it.after all of the information out there now that we should of had before voting on brexit.to me to put it to bed is another vote is the only way it is going to settle the argument we are all having.lets face most people did not know what it meant to leave the ec they thought we leave end of the matter how wrong was that information.i know many friends and my own family who voted to leave but now they would vote to stay in the ec.the government have put there heads in the sand and will not listen to anybody outside of the Tory party ,how wrong is that it is a national disgrace when the Tory party are putting themselves first and to hell with the rest of us.

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I voted 'Leave' for a number of reasons but the most improtant one to me was that I do not want to see this country become just a province in a United States of Europe.  All of the British government's statements and warnings before the referendum were clear - the result would be honoured and that it was a unique occasion. It was the largest turnout for any election o or referendum that this country  has ever experiences and I don't regard a majority for leaving of over a million people a narrow victory.

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This constant wrangling is just going around in circles and talking at each other really achieves nothing and is just becoming boring.

What we might agree on is the the politicians in the UK and in the EU are making a complete pig's ear of the process with their entrenched views and general incompetence. Leavers and Remainers are all likely to suffer as a result.

 

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44 minutes ago, BBCone said:

I voted 'Leave' for a number of reasons but the most improtant one to me was that I do not want to see this country become just a province in a United States of Europe.  All of the British government's statements and warnings before the referendum were clear - the result would be honoured and that it was a unique occasion. It was the largest turnout for any election o or referendum that this country  has ever experiences and I don't regard a majority for leaving of over a million people a narrow victory.

Yes, that is also the main reason I voted to leave BBCone, and is the main reason I would still vote to leave in any other referendum on the matter.  And I agree one million is a significant majority.  One could argue that, as a percentage of votes cast (around 3%) it is a bit more marginal.  But the actual result of the referendum was clear and unambiguous.

My concern is that I did not vote to leave the political machinery of what will inevitably become the United States of Europe, only for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to become broken down the middle.  And I believe that the reason we are looking at that long-term scenario is not that the result of the referendum is invalid, but that the referendum was conducted in such a manner by the Cameron government that great swathes of the population have legitimate reasons to have difficulty accepting the outcome.  The issue is not that the referendum was constitutionally invalid, it is that the manner of its conduct is not going to leave us with the "United" Kingdom that we have worked so hard to save from the EU in the first place.

I don't know what the solution is.  I theorised yesterday that it might be best to "start again", and do the whole thing properly from scratch in such a way that, whichever way the vote would go, the country could unite behind the result.  I have my own views about which way another vote would go, but they are no more or less valid than anybody else's view of which way another vote would go.  It's all speculation.  But I don't actually think that what I have advocated would actually be practical.  In that it would not be possible to undo what has happened in 2016 and since, and running it all again could not possibly be done free from the baggage of the mess we have had.  So no re-running of the thing would actually be able to achieve what we need (a country which, 5, 10 years down the line, is healed of all these divisions).

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8 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

This constant wrangling is just going around in circles and talking at each other really achieves nothing and is just becoming boring.

What we might agree on is the the politicians in the UK and in the EU are making a complete pig's ear of the process with their entrenched views and general incompetence. Leavers and Remainers are all likely to suffer as a result.

 

It would be interesting to know how many users of the site actually think the time has come to close this thread down.  We don't have a "poll" facility on this forum, but we do have a way of gauging opinion.  If you think it is time to "lock" this thread, please could you "like" this post.  If you think the thread should remain open, please "sad" this post.

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I'm a little amused by the thought that it will be the number of non-voters which determines whether this thread will remain open, just as the number of abstainees determined the outcome of the referendum!

I don't really know why it is advisable to close this thread. If it annoys some folks, they are quite free to ignore it. But for those who wish to express an opinion, let it stay open. I don't read the gossip columns in the papers, but I've never asked for them to be closed down.

I have a sneaky feeling that the "close it" voters will be nearly all Leave voters, and the "keep it going" voters will be nearly all Remainers.

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I have a sneaky feeling that the "close it" voters will be nearly all Leave voters, and the "keep it going" voters will be nearly all Remainers.

And there's another dodgy prediction...😁

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32 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

And there's another dodgy prediction...😁

Well, we are constantly being told that the leavers didn’t mean to vote leave, so if Jardiner is right there should be nothing for him to worry about - there will be a clear majority for “keep open”! 😀

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The thread may be going nowhere but is that a reason to close it? I would have thought that as it's original purpose was to stop Brexit appearing in every other thread it's been extremely successful. You may well find that trying to close discussion is counter productive. I've always thought that closing threads should be a very last resort probably only used if "personal" attacks are made on others but even then other options are available to staff.

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28 minutes ago, Jardinier said:

I have a sneaky feeling that the "close it" voters will be nearly all Leave voters, and the "keep it going" voters will be nearly all Remainers.

That maybe because the majority of Remain voters on the forum want to keep reminding us of every negative word either written or spoken in or around the media to the point were it has become white noise. Not one word written by any Remain voter participating in this thread has given me food for thought or an inkling to change my mind, It's all been knee jerk verbal ejaculated venting on a forum which has less strict moderation than others..

There has been no debate regarding the workings of any of the treaties, what they mean either in the short or long term, no discussion on topics such as why some of the largest economies in the world needed massive financial bail outs and what that will mean in the future and there has been no discussion as to why we as voters chose which box to tick.

I was more than happy to discuss my reasoning, as you have have done to some extent, in a mature manner, but the thread degenerated very early on into a slanging match and to be honest wasn't started by those who voted to leave, and it's never really recovered. It was the Remain voters on this thread who nurtured the "us and them" mentality hurling insults at all and sundry.

The type of vocabulary used against me by a few Remain voters on this thread over the past two years has at times been personal and insulting and wouldn't be accepted from close family, believe me it would never have been said to my face.

We are all different, always have been, always will be. For me the secret is to acknowledge, accept and embrace the differences, find a middle ground and get on with life rather than brow beating and insulting those who don't conform to a particular mindset.

All the thread is doing now is regurgitating old news which is being peddled by a red top media whose only accurate print matter is the date.

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21 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Well, we are constantly being told that the leavers didn’t mean to vote leave, so if Jardiner is right there should be nothing for him to worry about - there will be a clear majority for “keep open”! 😀

Crumbs, Gareth! I don't think I've read any accusations anywhere that Leave voters didn't mean to vote leave. I'm sure they did intend to vote leave. But it's the same story as always: we were all badly informed. So I don't understand the second part of your post, either. Sorry if I'm being dim!

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3 minutes ago, jonno said:

All the thread is doing now is regurgitating old news which is being peddled by a red top media whose only accurate print matter is the date.

I agree to some degree about regurgitation on this thread, but am a bit confused by your mention of the red-top media, as to me these would be mainly The Sun and The Mirror, though despite not having red tops The Express and The Daily Mail tend to fall into that category. And if you want a good rant, those papers are your first port of call! Of the four, only The Mirror isn't rabidly pro-Brexit - although the Mail does have a new editor who is pro-Remain, as I'm sure you know.

All that said, there is fresh news about Brexit every day, and latest events or points of view have largely determined the topics that I've introduced from time to time, always giving links to reports I've come across for those who like to read more widely. The release of government "How to plan for a no-deal Brexit" leaflets are hugely significant. Johnson's "suicide vest" comment was extraordinary. Raab's faux pas noteworthy. Grayling's letter to the EU27 grossly incompetent. Raab chastising businesses for blaming poor performance on Brexit quite astonishing. Land-Rover-Jaguar's boss giving the bottom line worrying. Weatherspoon's boss refusing to stock Jägermeister and other European drinks provocative. Stockpiling of food and medicines truly shocking. The photo of the arch-Brexiteers revealing. Their refusal to publish any plan of their own after saying they would extraordinary. Barnier's steadfastness boringly honest and/or frustrating.

The news is absolutely plastered with fascinating developments about Brexit. Should we not talk of these things? Should we not talk about the most important issue facing the UK since WWII?

You complain, Jonno, that discussion here has been low-level stuff. Well, please do give us some meat to chew on! (But if you want discussion, it will have to be at a level which we can all understand). I complained on here myself about superficial discussion on Question Time on Thursday. Yes, sure, let's make people think more deeply!

Regarding abuse, I can only agree with you, Jonno. Reading, as I do, Remain and Leave groups on the social media, I have seen that it is rife on both sides, and I very much regret that. Unfortunately, as we know, feelings and tensions are very high on both sides of the debate, and, as others have pointed out, a disunited kingdom is going to be a really difficult country to live in and perhaps worse to govern. And the biggest problem remains Northern Ireland, for which it seems there is still not even a glimmering of a solution.

Supporting the Leave side of the argument, recent developments in Hungary and Italy, and the rise of the far-right generally, can be seen to pose a threat to European unity. The attachment of the UK Tories to the Polish government and their association with the far-right in the European Parliament (rather than the centre-right) have also been noteworthy. So when Leavers say that the EU will collapse, is there the possibility that they are right?

************

Whilst writing, I have to agree with G4rth that this thread has succeeded in keeping Brexit away from other threads on the Board.

And on that point, I have noticed that whilst there has been lots of talk about driving licences and potential aviation difficulties, and threats to Eurostar, I've seen and heard nothing pertaining to our ferries and any effect Brexit may have on them. I don't mean in terms of custom, but, for instance, engineers' qualifications and their mutual recognition (often part of the aviation discussions), bridge crew qualifications, maintenance issues, safety issues, environmental/technical problems etc. Any contributions there?

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I just wish someone would explain what the benefits of Brexit are. The sovereignty issue has been dismissed as false by our Brexit supporting government. Parliament has always got the ability to refuse any laws coming from Europe. Yes there would be consequences but no where near as serious as the position we find ourselves now. Will we be able to buy beans from Kenya and some other foods at a cheaper price than we can now? Probably but the falling value of the £ will more than wipe any savings out. Will it make this country less corrupt or society as a whole more equitable? No it won't and it certainly won't make this country any more democratic. Will we save money cutting bureaucracy? Of couse we won't we will have to pick up the costs for all facilities we will no longer share but need to provide to trade with others.

 

 

 

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All big business are saying a no deal brexit the Bank of England also say it will lead to many people losing there jobs,more red tape on everything.where will the car industry go because Nissan have already stopped investing in sunderland and it is the biggest employer in that area and never mind all of the support jobs that will be lost also.why did people listen to Johnson and gove etc for god sake they are bookies and vote to leave.in the north east the reason people voted to leave was because imigration was getting out of hand and for no other reason.it was nothing to do about the rules of the ec ps we helped to make these rules has well.just glad I have retired now so won't have to worry about losing my job and everything else that could bring.please understand most people I know did not know what it meant.

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4 hours ago, Jardinier said:

I have noticed that whilst there has been lots of talk about driving licences and potential aviation difficulties, and threats to Eurostar, I've seen and heard nothing pertaining to our ferries and any effect Brexit may have on them.

Maybe it's because there won't be. Every difference and every possible negative is pounced on. No one is discussing the ferries as route expansion and millions being invested in new tonnage and port facilities isn't on the agenda of those who only see doom and gloom.

They're all at it. BF's UK-Spain link, P&O at Dover and Hull, DFDS at Dover and Newcastle, Stena and Irish Ferries for their UK links to Holyhead and Liverpool. New larger tonnage to carry more goods and passengers.

These private business' wouldn't be spending as much as euro or a pound if their forecasts were all black. DFDS especially.

No one has mentioned that the previous topic on this thread, the omission of certain ports, has now been officially put down to a "miscommunication" by the EU, their words, not mine, but the thread was quick to be swelled by notions of Le Havre dying, a ridiculous notion in itself to even contemplate the downfall of France's largest and busiest seaport, and the likes of Cherbourg and Roscoff falling off the map.

Nothing will happen with the driving licences, it's why the British government made fundamental changes in late 2017 to allow the EU full disclosure and why there were amendments made to UK insurance policies regarding overseas travel. In terms of driving we are more in tune now with the EU than we've ever been. Again a topic which has been discussed on here but easily forgotten when convenient.

Aviation will continue as before... and as bad in my opinion. Eurostar will be fine too, they've just expanded offering London to Amsterdam with Cologne on the horizon for 2022. They're not building buffers, they're building routes.

Stock piling of medicines has been happening for decades it's nothing new and it's also worth remembering that many of the mainstream and more specialised drugs all have UK patents plus pharmaceuticals are omitted from the EU's so called strict quality controls.

It's all very well for some to say what are the advantages of Brexit, no one seems to be able to highlight the benefits of Remaining, British Industry has certainly suffered since the EU, not prospered...

The EU prevents UK industry subsidies, but itself provides subsidised loans and 'grants'  in order for business' to set up in other countries throughout central Europe. We've lost many companies since joining the EU which have set up and expanded in poorer member states. 

Companies such as Merloni who own a host of British names such as Hotpoint, Servis, Cannon and also Indesit, Ariston , Whirlpool, the list is endless. All were manufactured in the UK on large production lines in Bodellwydden until 2002. Chocolate is now made in Poland. Food, drink and  textiles have basically flatlined. When we joined the EU we had a steel industry which produced 45 million tonnes a year, now we're lucky if it reaches 11 million. Steel production isn't struggling anywhere else.   Aluminium is another, 10% of what we produced prior to 1992. Cement production has halved too and everyone knows what the EU has done to our fishing industry and agriculture.

Regarding the rise of right wing politics in Europe particularly the more recent members. Well, what do you expect from nations which spent decades being told what to do and what to produce and who it was sold to by one vast Union only to be experiencing it again from another?

I want Remain voters to answer three simple questions...

Since becoming a member of the EU:

Why has our industry suffered whilst production moved and expanded elsewhere in Europe?

Why do we have a trade surplus with the rest of the world but have such a huge deficit with the EU?

Why do we need to import metals, fish and power from the EU when we used to be self sufficient?

 

 

Edited by jonno

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