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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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1 hour ago, jonno said:

Stock piling of medicines has been happening for decades it's nothing new 

Let's hope they've got plenty of Valium and Prozac stashed away as some people sound like they are going to need it. Ed. 

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As has been posted elsewhere online, the very idea that we should need to stockpile medicines etc. is a total indictment of the surreal situation the politicians have got us into. Speaking as an average citizen, just how the hell have we got ourselves into this situation based entirely on the rhetoric of incompetent and ignorant politicians? Is ANYONE on here happy wih the current situation we are in and feels that it is in the nation's best long term interests?

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

As has been posted elsewhere online, the very idea that we should need to stockpile medicines etc. is a total indictment of the surreal situation the politicians have got us into. Speaking as an average citizen, just how the hell have we got ourselves into this situation based entirely on the rhetoric of incompetent and ignorant politicians? Is ANYONE on here happy wih the current situation we are in and feels that it is in the nation's best long term interests?

If we have no deal, then I would be interested in what the leave side say.  If it is like elsewhere on other sites, many leavers would be happy with a No Deal as then it would mean out, full stop.  I have seen no indication so far of the leave vote being hsppy with anything except totally out.  Regardless of anything.  So they will be happy.

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Every 1st world country stockpiles medicines as they're cheaper to manufacture in huge quantities. Specialised medicines such as transplant anti rejection drugs which are also used is some types of Chemotherapy and immune diseases, Beta Blockers, A.C.E medication, steroids, anti coagulation etc, etc  are already expensive but would cost far more if made in small batches. 

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4 minutes ago, jonno said:

Every 1st world country stockpiles medicines as they're cheaper to manufacture in huge quantities. Specialised medicines such as transplant anti rejection drugs which are also used is some types of Chemotherapy and immune diseases, Beta Blockers, A.C.E medication, steroids, anti coagulation etc, etc  are already expensive but would cost far more if made in small batches. 

With all due respect making medicines in large batches is not the same as stockpiling to cover possible distribution or product testing problems. The former is just good business practice the later is the inevitable consequence of a flawed policy.

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Also a lot of the drugs etc have a very short self life ,so stockpiling a lot of some drugs is a no goer .them are the ones people should be worried about if there is going to a shortage on them type of drugs.

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2 hours ago, G4rth said:

With all due respect making medicines in large batches is not the same as stockpiling to cover possible distribution or product testing problems. The former is just good business practice the later is the inevitable consequence of a flawed policy.

With all due respect G4rth it's called stockpiling because it makes headlines. If it hadn't been mentioned in the media no one would care less.

 

36 minutes ago, nodwad said:

Also a lot of the drugs etc have a very short self life ,so stockpiling a lot of some drugs is a no goer .them are the ones people should be worried about if there is going to a shortage on them type of drugs.

There's only two drugs which have shown to have a limited shelf life, insulin and I.V antibiotics. 90% of prescription and over the counter medicines are just as potent 10 years after manufacture, some as long as 15. really expensive, serious drugs such as Mycophenolate and Cyclosporine can survive a nuclear winter. No drug prior to 1979 had a sell by date. If your were given Ibuprofen by the doctor or hospital in the 1970's there's a very good chance it was made in the 50's when Boots invented it.

Try and get your hands on a copy of Psychopharmacology Today it's a page turner.

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8 hours ago, jonno said:

If it hadn't been mentioned in the media no one would care less.

Is that a veiled hint that the media should be censored? Scary opinion!

Combined with the news that the Conservatives are banning anti-Brexit members from their party conference, I'm experiencing a disturbing day for democracy.

I don't have time to answer fully your earlier post, Jonno, as it asks so many questions which aren't simple to respond to and need statistical evidence to make the points. That will take some time to put together. I could, of course, adopt your method and simply deny or play down one's opponent's points.

However, your suggestion that everyone knows what the EU did to UK fishing is quite remarkable. They may think they know. But a whole chunk of the UK's fishing allowance was sold to other EU countries, and the vast majority of the seafood caught by UK fishermen is sold to other EU countries. I think the UK fishing industry may well have been harder hit when the UK lost the Cod War with Iceland. Aren't there signs that UK fishermen, who voted for Leave, are changing their minds now?

A lot of your earlier post, Jonno, seems to be saying that there's nothing to worry about and that all the negatives that have surfaced over the last two years are exaggerated. If what you are saying is true, or even partly true, why are we not hearing this from the government? Why are we not hearing this from the Leave organisations? Instead, the government is issuing all sorts of guidance on how to get over the problems, and an agreement which Liam Fox told us would be the easiest trade agreement ever is looking ever more difficult, ever more unlikely.

Your dismissal of stockpiling of medicines and food is extraordinary. The government has issued advice that households should be considering this. There are no less than six leaflets issued on the regulation of medicines and medical equipment in the event of a no-deal. It all sounds very costly! And I don't think that the millions of diabetics in the UK - or their relatives and friends - will be at all comforted by your arguments.

On driving, we know that UK licence-holders will need an IDP, and two different ones for some countries including Spain. However, "If, after exit day, you become resident in an EU country you would not have the automatic right under EU law to exchange your UK licence for a driving licence from the EU country you’re living in. Depending on the laws of the EU country you move to, you may need to take a new driving test in that country." That'll be fun!

I have read only this morning of one UK importer of EU wines who has just received a letter from HMRC telling him some of the new arrangements his business will have to set up in order to continue trading. I've read the letter, but it's a very condensed version of the government "no-deal" leaflet (mainly as it deals with a potential Brexit agreement scenario). Either way, the UK will be a Third Country. The no-deal leaflet (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trading-with-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/trading-with-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal) shows that he would have to devote much more time and expense in dealing with all the paperwork and import duties. His response: "I'll close my business."

This post is already too long, so I'm going to stop there. I have a life!

 

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Before leaving you to see to stuff in the garden, I just want you to contemplate the following ... It was written by a Remain campaigner called John Danzig, quoting an article in yesterday's Times newspaper.

Today, tucked away on page 10 of the print edition of The Times was a little story (more prominent in the online edition) which was so shocking I had to read it twice.

The short story, at the bottom of the page, claimed that, in the event of a no deal Brexit:

• Chris Grayling, Transport Secretary, wants every adult to get a Brexit cash bonus.

• Sajid Javid, Home Secretary, is planning emergency measures, including suspending workers’ rights, environmental regulations and auto-enrolment in workplace pensions.

Actually, The Times story is so short, and so shocking, I will paste it here in full:

‘Every adult should be given a cash handout to mark Britain’s exit from the EU, Chris Grayling suggested at a special cabinet meeting.

‘The transport secretary’s proposal for a “Brexit bonus” came as ministers discussed this week how to respond to the possible economic shock of crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

‘The suggestion was met with astonishment by some colleagues, according to a witness. “Liz Truss’s face was a picture,” they said of the Treasury chief secretary.

‘Sajid Javid, the home secretary, laid out a series of pro-business emergency measures that he said would be necessary to keep the economy afloat.

‘A source said that these included suspending environmental regulations, workers’ rights and auto-enrolment in workplace pensions. “This was very much Saj auditioning to be no-deal chancellor,” said a colleague.

‘Mr Javid was said to be underwhelmed by Philip Hammond’s presentation on the Treasury response to a no-deal Brexit. The Chancellor said there would be no money for tax cuts.

‘Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, gave a “grim assessment” of the worst-case scenario, including a fall in house prices of 35% over three years.’

Brexit is no longer ‘Project Fear’. It’s ‘Project Madness’. And it’s really happening. Stripping Britons of basic rights because of Brexit should send alarm bells clanging in everyone’s head.

I'll leave you to cogitate on that. That's the UK Cabinet discussing all that.

Of course, we could just abandon all this nonsense and carry on living fed, medicated, and in peace with our allies, friends and neighbours.

 

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1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

Is that a veiled hint that the media should be censored? Scary opinion!

Come off it Jardinier!  That’s not what Jonno said at all.  And you know it! 😉

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11 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Come off it Jardinier!  That’s not what Jonno said at all.  And you know it! 😉

Jonno said that no-one would have noticed if it hadn't been for the media. But that's how we all learn about everything! So it was a daft thing to say. And you know it! 😃

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15 minutes ago, Jardinier said:

Now how about responding to the more serious points which followed that first tiddly comment?

Nope, not read it I’m afraid.  Not interested.  Deliberately misquoting someone in an emotive way to try to mislead others about what they were saying (standard tacky journalistic tactic) switches me off wanting to read any further.

You are one of the most articulate and well-reasoned posters on this forum on the Remain side (one of the few that I think takes time to understand the points of view of others - and I normally have great respect for what you have to say.  So I was surprised at that straw man from you - not your normal style!  😉

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27 minutes ago, nick hall said:

I need help here. Can some please explain to me why leaving the EU will cause a shortage of food & medicine.

I don't believe there is any proof (as opposed to scaremongering) of either due to suppliers and retailers not wanting to lose their customers in the former case and both ditto and the presence of strategic reserves in the latter. If there was a shortage of newsprint and ink until anything concrete emerges from the negotiations then that might be more welcome. Ed. 

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6 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I don't believe there is any proof (as opposed to scaremongering) of either due to suppliers and retailers not wanting to lose their customers in the former case and both ditto and the presence of strategic reserves in the latter. If there was a shortage of newsprint and ink until anything concrete emerges from the negotiations then that might be more welcome. Ed. 

Thanks for the info CB.

There's much I don't understand about Brexit so if anyone has the time to answer, I have another question. Why is the UK car industry at risk due to Brexit?

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1 hour ago, nick hall said:

I need help here. Can some please explain to me why leaving the EU will cause a shortage of food & medicine.

All existing agreements for trade will end if there is a no-deal Brexit. So for a while there will be no means of importing fresh perishable foods or medicines (delays too long so they'd have to travel by air, and a no-deal Brexit could mean there won't be agreements to do with aviation). In addition, since all cargo would have to be checked by Customs and extra paperwork done by Customs officials who don't exist and haven't been trained, vehicles arriving with goods from the EU (and everywhere else, as before) would spend much longer on the dockside or stacked on lorry parks somewhere before their port of departure.

If you've been watching the news on TV I'm sure you'll have seen stories of lorries being parked on the M20, the creation of lorry parks along the same motorway, and the installation of portaloos so that lorry drivers parked up along the motorway can at least relieve some of the pressure! But that's on the UK side of the Channel. Similar problems could possibly arrive on the other side, too.

For the car manufacturers the problems are at least two-fold.

First, many parts are brought in from the EU to be assembled in the UK plants. Without a trade agreement, there will be import duties to pay on those parts when they enter the country. Sometimes, once those parts are assembled, they are exported again for work elsewhere. At that point, in theory there would be further import duties on the other side. If those assembled parts come back to the UK for a final assembly into the finished vehicle, tariffs are again applied. This is all making the car more expensive. Then if the car goes for export it will be subject to import duty once more. Paperwork to do with Customs Duties and VAT will also add to clerical expenses. The nett result is that the car becomes so pricey it doesn't compete in the market, and so the plant could be closed down.

The second problem is in the delivery of goods to the UK plants. The factories are organised so that as soon as a lorry delivers a consignment of parts they are used more or less immediately. To do this, there must be regular reliable deliveries to feed the factory conveyor belt. It's a system called either Just In Time Delivery or Just In Time Manufacturing. If the lorries don't arrive on time, the whole system stops because the parts are missing. The plant becomes uneconomic, and so is again threatened with closure.

Car manufacturers could ditch the UK as a manufacturing base and transfer the work to other countries where there are no import tariffs and no cross-Channel delays.

Edited by Jardinier
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30 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I don't believe there is any proof (as opposed to scaremongering) of either due to suppliers and retailers not wanting to lose their customers in the former case and both ditto and the presence of strategic reserves in the latter. If there was a shortage of newsprint and ink until anything concrete emerges from the negotiations then that might be more welcome. Ed. 

It's nothing to do with suppliers wanting or not wanting to trade. The day we leave the EU we a also leave the drug testing and administration system. Unless we can come to some agreement with the EU after we have left it will be illegal to trade drugs between the UK and the EU. Any agreement we may or may not come to will take time. Hence the need to stockpile drugs. It's not scaremongering, it's common sense.

 

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, nick hall said:

Thanks for the info CB.

There's much I don't understand about Brexit so if anyone has the time to answer, I have another question. Why is the UK car industry at risk due to Brexit?

Obviously Nick there is no reason to believe anything I say as I know no more (and maybe far less) than the next person on the street. What I do think is that this whole process, from the moment the referendum was announced, would have been a while lot easier in the pre-internet era.

Until anything official is published jointly by both sides in the negotiations, everything else you read or hear is pure speculation, rumour, scaremongering (yes, that word again) and hopeful lobbying. Moat projections for what will happen next March tend to be preceded by 'if, unless, without, until' etc as none of us (yes, me and all of us on here included) have the slightest idea of what the discussions have actually achieved.

Meanwhile, and as I said earlier this week, the directors overseeing large corporations (including those in the car-industry) are not running around panicking and preparing for a doomsday scenario. Instead, I'm sure, they are calmly working hard behind the scenes to ensure that both parties understand the consequences of a no-deal outcome both for the UK and the rest of Europe.

The cost and time required to shut down the Sunderland Nissan plant and restart production in another country would be horrendous and rather pointless given that the UK is (or at least was) the number one market for the cars it produces. Equally, companies like GSK and Dyson are not going to want their access to the lucrative European market restricted.

So the fact that you don't really understand Brexit is not because it's difficult to understand, it's because nobody else (not directly involved) does either. We will just have to wait and see.

The leaflets published by the government about a possible no-deal are no different from those warning of a possible winter flu pandemic. You may not get it but if you do, be prepared. And if we all take the necessary steps and precautions now then it won't happen. 

Ed. 

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1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

All existing agreements for trade will end if there i a no-deal Brexit. So for a while there will be no means of importing fresh perishable foods or medicines (delays too long so they'd have to travel by air, and a no-deal Brexit could mean there won't be agreements to do with aviation). In addition, since all cargo would have to be checked by Customs and extra paperwork done by Customs officials who don't exist and haven't been trained, vehicles arriving with goods from the EU (and everywhere else, as before) would spend much longer on the dockside or stacked on lorry parks somewhere before their port of departure.

Do we need an agreement to trade? Do we not import produce from countries we have no agreement with?

Regarding customs checks, do we check everything that enters the UK from outside the EU? Couldn't we waive checks or be selective over what is checked? Although I do concede that preparation for leaving by HM government have been woeful.

 

1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

If you've been watching the news on TV I'm sure you'll have seen stories of lorries being parked on the M20, the creation of lorry parks along the same motorway, and the installation of portaloos so that lorry drivers parked up along the motorway can at least relieve some of the pressure! But that's on the UK side of the Channel. Similar problems could possibly arrive on the other side, too.

For the car manufacturers the problems are at least two-fold.

First, many parts are brought in from the EU to be assembled in the UK plants. Without a trade agreement, there will be import duties to pay on those parts when they enter the country. Sometimes, once those parts are assembled, they are exported again for work elsewhere. At that point, in theory there would be further import duties on the other side. If those assembled parts come back to the UK for a final assembly into the finished vehicle, tariffs are again applied. This is all making the car more expensive. Then if the car goes for export it will be subject to import duty once more. Paperwork to do with Customs Duties and VAT will also add to clerical expenses. The nett result is that the car becomes so pricey it doesn't compete in the market, and so the plant could be closed down.

Couldn't we reduce or scrap import duties? Do Nissan/Honda etc not use any components from outside the EU that have duties levied, if so then import duties on parts isn't a major barrier to car manufacturing. Also more automotive parts could be manufactured in the UK, it may stimulate manufacturing here.

1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

The second problem is in the delivery of goods to the UK plants. The factories are organised so that as soon as a lorry delivers a consignment of parts they are used more or less immediately. To do this, there must be regular reliable deliveries to feed the factory conveyor belt. It's a system called either Just In Time Delivery or Just In Time Manufacturing. If the lorries don't arrive on time, the whole system stops because the parts are missing. The plant becomes uneconomic, and so is again threatened with closure.

Just in time manufacturing is something i'm involved in, my employer uses it and our customers use it. Most of the materials we import are from outside the EU and 70% of our sales are outside the EU and it works fine so i don't buy the argument that EU membership is necessary to enable manufacturing in the UK.

1 hour ago, Jardinier said:

Car manufacturers could ditch the UK as a manufacturing base and transfer the work to other countries where there are no import tariffs and no cross-Channel delays.

 

In you first paragraph you mentioned aviation. Can anyone really imagine a scenario where flights to the EU would cease until a new agreement could be agreed. Tourism in the EU would be devastated and it would be extreme case of self harm if the EU allowed that to happen.

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1 hour ago, G4rth said:

It's nothing to do with suppliers wanting or not wanting to trade. The day we leave the EU we a also leave the drug testing and administration system. Unless we can come to some agreement with the EU after we have left it will be illegal to trade drugs between the UK and the EU. Any agreement we may or may not come to will take time. Hence the need to stockpile drugs. It's not scaremongering, it's common sense.

 

I'm not aware of any UK law that will prevent the import of medicines so i don't agree that it will be illegal. Our standards are aligned and will be the same on 1st April as they were on the 29th March so there's no concern regarding quality etc. 

Also isn't the European Medicines Agency based in London, now the EU will obviously move when we leave but there will be a lot of staff unwilling to move so it seems we could use them to set up our own medicines regulator.

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8 minutes ago, nick hall said:

I'm not aware of any UK law that will prevent the import of medicines so i don't agree that it will be illegal. Our standards are aligned and will be the same on 1st April as they were on the 29th March so there's no concern regarding quality etc. 

Also isn't the European Medicines Agency based in London, now the EU will obviously move when we leave but there will be a lot of staff unwilling to move so it seems we could use them to set up our own medicines regulator.

Medicines are regulated. Our product standards may be aligned the day we leave but we will not have any regulatory system in place to allow trade. Is it your contention that the government ( half of those in senior positions are brexiteers ) are planning to stockpile medicines because it might be a fun thing to do. Perhaps they may consider it essential for the continuing health of the nation.

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Medicinal regulation is governed by the WHO not the EU, they must abide by WHO guidelines in terms of quality, production and storage the same way we do plus medicines are omitted from EU manufacturing standards, as headlined by the BBC earlier this week. As also mentioned, UK  based companies hold many patents in terms of medicinal drugs and apparatus, patents which are used with permission on the understanding that there is bilateral reciprocation.

The UK don't trade drugs, Big Pharma do, they a classed as a service and enter the Free Market by setting up subsidiaries, bilateral agreements and under the Fundamental Freedom of Services.

The EU cannot become involved in reciprocation nor can they intervene and alter the Financial Third Country Principle of Equivalence which gives Single Market Access. It's their rule, they wrote it.

Regarding London no longer being the finance capitol. The issues regarding "Passporting" are myth and have been since the 2015 European Capital Requirement Directive. Again these services will come under the same Third Country Equivalence directive.

When it comes the the EU and financial markets even BaFin, the German Financial Supervisory Authority describe them as onerous and believe having either a German or French "Finance Capital" is a none starter.

Yes there are certain regulations both parties must see eye to eye on, Third Countries, such as Switzerland, altered their laws in a similar way the UK government has already announced they will.

Mark Carney's 35% drop in house valuations? One of a number of global doomsday scenarios which are conducted now since the 2008 crash and not forecast to happen whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. Carney stressed this a number of times during a number of interviews.

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1 hour ago, jonno said:

Medicinal regulation is governed by the WHO not the EU, they must abide by WHO guidelines in terms of quality, production and storage the same way we do plus medicines are omitted from EU manufacturing standards, as headlined by the BBC earlier this week.

 

http://ec.europa.eu/health/human-use/safe_pharma/index_en.htm

http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/general/general_content_001707.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac0580a809a7

 

 

Edited by G4rth

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