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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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She has said she will, and if no deal is reached then it will be WTO or zilch.  Ok, what are the pros and cons about the WTO as opposed to the EU.  What will WTO rules be like?  Anyway there is NOTHING to say that Article 50 cannot be cancelled during the two years, and whether or not we can stop Brexit in it's tracks is something that really needs clarifying.  The man who wrote A50 says there is nothing in it which says the process cannot be stopped.  If this Government make a complete mess of all this, then there should be some kind of brake.  

 

 

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6 hours ago, imprimerie said:

It is not and can't be fact  about the outcome of Brexit.It is all about the hope and chance that everything will turn out for the better.I find that a reckless approach in running a country.What if Mrs May doesn't get the deal she wants?Would Britain walk away from Europe without paying it's debts and upsetting our largest trading block?

Read the post again please...

I agreed that the UK being stronger was just my opinion.

HMG has already stated that the long term financial obligations will be met.

You also think the money we spend in the EU allowing them to earn over £100 billion from us while we earn nothing overrides everything else?  We sell more goods to the rest of the world now with a fifth of the deficit in markets dictated to us by Brussels.

Would you rather keep up the £100 billion or import what we want from the EU nations with tariffs totalling approximately 5% of the deficit?

The facts I was referring to are both of the treaties which form a major part of the backbone of the EU, a backbone which no one seems to be too interested in. No one seems to particularly care how much of our self governing would be devolved, how much our country will change to resemble those on the European mainland. Don't get me wrong, I love visiting all European countries as much as I've enjoyed visits to Scandinavia, USA, Japan & Canada. it doesn't mean I want the UK to become one of them.

I would have thought that in order to say, hand on heart, that the EU is what I want, All of the EU Treaties would have been read cover to cover?

I know they haven't because if they had many more would be running fairly rapidly in the other direction.

Most of what full integration means is completely alien to us in the UK but has been integral to Continental Europe for decades, their accession to full and ongoing membership is seamless, for them to be fully assimilated to form a United States is already 75% complete because the foundations were there to begin with, most of them already defer to Brussels. 

Such a sea change for us in the UK would be seismic.

Everyone tends to use a derogatory term to highlight our relationship with the USA, they call us the 51st state of their union although no one seems the slightest bit interested in reading any EU publication which would eventually see us as a 2nd state of an ultimate U.S.E... A UK California to a Brussels Washington in a similar way to Germany becoming the equivalent of New Jersey.

Reading the Lisbon Treaty would tell you that.

 

 

 

Edited by jonno

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16 minutes ago, jonno said:

Read the post again please...

I agreed that the UK being stronger was just my opinion.

HMG has already stated that the long term financial obligations will be met.

You also think the money we spend in the EU allowing them to earn over £100 billion from us while we earn nothing overrides everything else?  We sell more goods to the rest of the world now with a fifth of the deficit in markets dictated to us by Brussels.

Would you rather keep up the £100 billion or import what we want from the EU nations with tariffs totalling approximately 5% of the deficit?

The facts I was referring to are both of the treaties which form a major part of the backbone of the EU, a backbone which no one seems to be too interested in. No one seems to particularly care how much of our self governing would be devolved, how much our country will change to resemble those on the European mainland. Don't get me wrong, I love visiting all European countries as much as I've enjoyed visits to Scandinavia, USA, Japan & Canada. it doesn't mean I want the UK to become one of them.

I would have thought that in order to say, hand on heart, that the EU is what I want, All of the EU Treaties would have been read cover to cover?

I know they haven't because if they had many more would be running fairly rapidly in the other direction.

Most of what full integration means is completely alien to us in the UK but has been integral to Continental Europe for decades, their accession to full and ongoing membership is seamless, for them to be fully assimilated to form a United States is already 75% complete because the foundations were there to begin with, most of them already defer to Brussels. 

Such a sea change for us in the UK would be seismic.

Everyone tends to use a derogatory term to highlight our relationship with the USA, they call us the 51st state of their union although no one seems the slightest bit interested in reading any EU publication which would eventually see us as a 2nd state of an ultimate U.S.E... A UK California to a Brussels Washington in a similar way to Germany becoming the equivalent of New Jersey.

Reading the Lisbon Treaty would tell you that.

 

 

 

Personally I'd much rather be a part of a European state than an American state. That, I'm afraid, are the only two long-term alternatives. We are far too small to prosper on our own.

Edited by G4rth
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1 hour ago, jonno said:

Read the post again please...

I agreed that the UK being stronger was just my opinion.

HMG has already stated that the long term financial obligations will be met.

You also think the money we spend in the EU allowing them to earn over £100 billion from us while we earn nothing overrides everything else?  We sell more goods to the rest of the world now with a fifth of the deficit in markets dictated to us by Brussels.

Would you rather keep up the £100 billion or import what we want from the EU nations with tariffs totalling approximately 5% of the deficit?

The facts I was referring to are both of the treaties which form a major part of the backbone of the EU, a backbone which no one seems to be too interested in. No one seems to particularly care how much of our self governing would be devolved, how much our country will change to resemble those on the European mainland. Don't get me wrong, I love visiting all European countries as much as I've enjoyed visits to Scandinavia, USA, Japan & Canada. it doesn't mean I want the UK to become one of them.

I would have thought that in order to say, hand on heart, that the EU is what I want, All of the EU Treaties would have been read cover to cover?

I know they haven't because if they had many more would be running fairly rapidly in the other direction.

Most of what full integration means is completely alien to us in the UK but has been integral to Continental Europe for decades, their accession to full and ongoing membership is seamless, for them to be fully assimilated to form a United States is already 75% complete because the foundations were there to begin with, most of them already defer to Brussels. 

Such a sea change for us in the UK would be seismic.

Everyone tends to use a derogatory term to highlight our relationship with the USA, they call us the 51st state of their union although no one seems the slightest bit interested in reading any EU publication which would eventually see us as a 2nd state of an ultimate U.S.E... A UK California to a Brussels Washington in a similar way to Germany becoming the equivalent of New Jersey.

Reading the Lisbon Treaty would tell you that.

 

So we get no benefits from the 100 million that we put in. If that's what you really think then it shows what Brexit is all about.One sided opinion without putting in all the facts.Let's have the real picture please.

 

 

Edited by imprimerie

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We all can go on and on about the ec,but comments like what the  Howard ex minister said was well out of order and th pm should of slapped him down.she did nothing at all because she is running scared of what is going on and you can all see it is going to turn into a right mess already.remember last year they said the nhs would benefit with the 320 mill a week saving in what we pay to the ec,then last week they said nhs was going cut back on costs on minor ops,it is not minor when you are hurting and awaiting a op to get rid of the pain(just wonder where the 320 mill a week savings have gone)

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What Howard said was daft but he did not mean go to war, he meant about Thatcher's determination in the Falklands.  What he said was taken out of context I feel, but I agree he should have been slapped down.  He probably has in private.  Thing is, he is of that generation like Prince Philip who use their status to open their mouths without really thinking and using their position to get away with it.  I expect he's had a few earfuls.  He is still living in the Thatcher era in his mind.  Norman Tebbit is the same.

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1 hour ago, imprimerie said:

I have been out of the UK for about 30 years now.I am absoluteiy astonished by some anti-European opinion in the UK(a country that by all accounts is doing well while being a part of the EU).Why has this negative attitude to the EU come back,?

 

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1 hour ago, Khaines said:

What Howard said was daft but he did not mean go to war, he meant about Thatcher's determination in the Falklands.  What he said was taken out of context I feel, but I agree he should have been slapped down.  He probably has in private.  Thing is, he is of that generation like Prince Philip who use their status to open their mouths without really thinking and using their position to get away with it.  I expect he's had a few earfuls.  He is still living in the Thatcher era in his mind.  Norman Tebbit is the same.

Howard daft? He's the vanguard of the great British charm offensive designed to show Jonny foreigner just how sensible we are and ensure we get a deal from the EU even better than the one we already have.

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What a joke that comment is.howard is a dinosaur and is a idiot for saying these things.by not getting slapped down in public it shows some people in the Tory party are not living in the real word and shows what a sorry state we are in the political world in the UK

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Well spoken Gareth,but the proof of the pudding is in the eating comes to mind but I fear it will have a bitter taste,mind you I hope to god I am wrong.

Edited by nodwad
Grammer

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An interesting topic with views on both sides. Some suprised that there was such anti EU feelings and so on. I suspect many of you either live abroad or in the south/south east of Britain. I, on the other hand, live in the north, in one of the Labour heartlands, that swung solidly behind Brexit. If you will permit me I`ll try to explain why the Labour heartlands of the West Midlands, Yorkshire, Humberside, NW and NE all went the same way. For illustration purposes I`ll use the analogy `North of Watford`.

  Well there is firstly a large disconnect between north and south of Watford. Many in the north no longer regard London as a British City, and say so quite openly. When it comes to politics, that divide is even more pronounced, which is where Cameron made his first and greatest mistake regarding the referendum. At times, Cameron thought north of Watford was alien land , they would do as they were told there and were best ignored and avoided. Little wonder that Cameron and Osborne were the 2 most despised politicos out of all of them, and little respect for any of the others. When the opportunity arose for an `arse kicking` contest, they duly seized it with glee and kicked the establishment where it hurt. As much as you might like to, you can`t really blame Joe Public.

  The Eu..hmm again a lot of EU rules were looked at by say Spain and France, who if they thought them unpopular , just ignored them and/or substituted their own. Brussels knew this, and as long as the game was played,were happy with it. Not so UK, these were enforced with ruthless efficency by Major/Blair/Brown and Cameron who failed to even realise that there was a game to be played. Immigration, yes was a big issue, because terms and pay scales were being eroded much of the time because of the influx of EU workers. Schools,medicals facilities etc were stretched and just before the referendum came the issue of child benefit being paid by the UK to children in other EU countries. That did not go down well..Whilst South of Watford the job vacancies situation and terms were very different to the north.

  The referendum campaign..Well never in decades of following politics have I ever seen a more useless, inept half hearted display as the `Remain` campaign put in. I expected to see an itemised breakdown of what we got back from the EU..But nothing emerged. In truth we don`t see much back from the EU in the north, but that doesn`t mean we don`t get something back, its just we never hear about it and `Remain` were tight lipped about it. People draw their own conclusions. Cameron was cocky, thought he could not lose and told our EU partners to this effect(according to a recent speech by Nick Clegg) No wonder they didnt make any concessions. The rest is history.

  Hope I havent bored anyone, sorry if I have, but I have tried to condense what I needed to say. One thing that is positive is nowhere in the north does anyone consider that they are splitting from the peoples of Europe. We still want strong ties and friendship, we are all Europeans after all, its just the European Union itself we are leaving, certainly not Europe and its people.

  Please feel free to discuss and ask any questions..Thank you for reading

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Thing is Paully, although I agree with you that the Remain campaign was utterly useless - this is what you get from a PM like Cameron.  A posh privileged Etonian Tory who thought he, because of his class, didn't really need to think about anyone else except his own.  Those north of the border were an afterthought and he considered that their numbers would not be enough to warrant a win for Leave.  And he has been proved wrong.  Funny enough, while all this is going on, he is sunning himself an an exotic holiday somewhere so he's alright, Jack, nothing will affect him.

My personal view is that I thought ling and hard at the referendum as to which way to vote.  I thought about the pros and cons of both leaving and remaining.  And to be honest I could not see a single pro reason to leave.  We are quitting the biggest trading bloc in the world, because therevis an assumption that things will be like the good old days again.  They won't be, and why, when the world is evolving and changing, would we want to cast ourselves back half a century or more.  The EU can evolve for the better and change.  Once we are out we are out - and unless there is a way that Brexit can be stopped mid negotiations or we can rejoin, then Britain will be an insignificant dot in the world.  We are cutting our noses off the spite our faces.  Remaining would be keeping the status quo, leaving will cause upheaval and damage to many people.

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Khaines, you say "The EU can evolve for the better and change" that's the problem, the majority don't see it doing that.  When ever there's a problem the answer is to centralise things even more, if Cameron had pushed them a bit more on this he could have won but what he came back with amounted to nothing and people voted accordingly.

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2 hours ago, Solo said:

Khaines, you say "The EU can evolve for the better and change" that's the problem, the majority don't see it doing that.  When ever there's a problem the answer is to centralise things even more, if Cameron had pushed them a bit more on this he could have won but what he came back with amounted to nothing and people voted accordingly.

To simple to say that.The referendum if rerun today could give you a completely different result.  Why? ..........One of the reasons is that the younger generation(predominantly Remain) did not go and vote (and probably would in a rerun). The older generation(predominantly Leave) did giving a very close victory to the Brexiteers. No wonder the country is split over this. The solution might well be to have another referendum but with the Brexiteers now "having their bone between their teeth"it is highly unlikely.What will be the eventual outcome?

Edited by imprimerie

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My question is if the result goes the other way can we cancel our decision to leave and how much will the EU make us grovel 

and punish us just like naughty children?

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It was a referendum, not a neverendum. A one off decision making process. Another is out of the question. As to the closeness of the result, from what I can gather, correct me if I`m wrong, but the percentage in the 1975 referendum, to stay in, was a very similar margin to the one last year. We do have certain advantages to play on. We are the 5th largest economy in the world, we have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and are one of the few Countries to have a nuclear deterent at sea 24/7. We wont become just a bit part player. We are also part of one of the largest trading blocs in the world, namely the Commonwealth. Maybe also worth pointing out that when we leave just 27 countries will be in the EU. The rest of those in the world won`t be.

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5 hours ago, Solo said:

Khaines, you say "The EU can evolve for the better and change" that's the problem, the majority don't see it doing that.  When ever there's a problem the answer is to centralise things even more, if Cameron had pushed them a bit more on this he could have won but what he came back with amounted to nothing and people voted accordingly.

The majority don't see it doing that - I see that change is probably possible and likely in the FUTURE, as the likes of Juncker and Merkel won't last for ever, and at the moment things might well be centralised when there are problems but this could change for the better under different leadership in the future.  People are getting fed up with it at the moment and I feel it is for member states to work together to make the change.  Leaving is a bit of a cop out because if things do improve, we won't be able to have a share in it.  

Look at Sunseeker in Poole.  Poole overwhelmingly voted to leave and there is a large population of Sunseeker employees living there.  Sunseeker is Chinese owned now and there is every likelihood that they will pull out of Poole despite saying they'll stay.  If Brexit causes a lot of problems for the Chinese, bye bye Sunseeker, one of Poole's biggest employers.  I do not know how many Sunseeker employees voted Leave, but this could be a perfect example of turkeys voting for Christmas. 

 

And if we have to go by WTO rules who says there won't be difficulties there.

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1 hour ago, KeynshamKid said:

My question is if the result goes the other way can we cancel our decision to leave and how much will the EU make us grovel 

and punish us just like naughty children?

Can't see us being punished for any cancellation of Brexit.  Would be one of the most sensible decisions going so punishments should not be in order.  Punishments will be by Leave voters to the Government if Brexit ends up not happening. 

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What I watch on TV and read in papers and what people call the retainers worries me.i feel if the newspapers  like the Tory paper daily mail tell us all all it is all going to be Rosie and the paths are made of gold after we leave the UK. We are in for a rude awakening,but has been All  that bad why has  27 other nations joined and others are  waiting to join?we are European and always will be,yes it may have gone a bit to far with its rules but is it all that bad?what will happen if no trade deal is done I ask?ford cars have come out the other day and said they are watching what is going to happen if no trade deal is and may leave our shores and I would think Nissan who employ around 36 000 workers in the UK will be doing same.that is without Honda and the rest will be thinking the same.i have  a feeling we are all going to suffer a very fool hardy vote on the stay or leave vote,the reason I say this is we the UK people were giving very poor info what it all means and that give people like ukip etc to push for a no vote.I can say the main issue of the vote was immigration and nothing else,now we are now all being told the leave vote will mean no difference at all and thousands upon thousand will still be allowed to come.never mind the billions of pounds we will have to pay back to the EU.why was the facts not giving before the vote?it is a complete shambles the pm could not run a tap never mind the country.one very worried person.

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, nodwad said:

What I watch on TV and read in papers and what people call the retainers worries me.i feel if the newspapers  like the Tory paper daily mail tell us all all it is all going to be Rosie and the paths are made of gold after we leave the UK. We are in for a rude awakening,but has been All  that bad why has  27 other nations joined and others are  waiting to join?we are European and always will be,yes it may have gone a bit to far with its rules but is it all that bad?what will happen if no trade deal is done I ask?ford cars have come out the other day and said they are watching what is going to happen if no trade deal is and may leave our shores and I would think Nissan who employ around 36 000 workers in the UK will be doing same.that is without Honda and the rest will be thinking the same.i have  a feeling we are all going to suffer a very fool hardy vote on the stay or leave vote,the reason I say this is we the UK people were giving very poor info what it all means and that give people like ukip etc to push for a no vote.I can say the main issue of the vote was immigration and nothing else,now we are now all being told the leave vote will mean no difference at all and thousands upon thousand will still be allowed to come.never mind the billions of pounds we will have to pay back to the EU.why was the facts not giving before the vote?it is a complete shambles the pm could not run a tap never mind the country.one very worried person.

 

 

 

Exactly and if what is negotiated by Prime Minister May bears no resemblance to what people voted for then there should be another referendum.This referendum could quite possibly give a different result.Let's hope!

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8 hours ago, Paully said:

 In truth we don`t see much back from the EU in the north, but that doesn`t mean we don`t get something back, its just we never hear about it a

 

The bit about it not being publicised is true - one of the great tragedies of the referendum is that the disproportionate funding the EU directs to less affluent areas which voted Leave, such as the north east and parts of Yorkshire and Lancashire, is much less likely to continue flowing from a Conservative government - not just because the Conservative heartlands are in the south but because the sort of social/infrastructure programmes the EU are keen on are ideologically a poor fit for that party, Northern Powerhouse or not.

A valid argument was there to be had about money - not the lies of the Leave campaign but a grown up discussion about EU funding, The merits, or not, of sending funds back to poorer regions but also the overarching idea of building up the infrastructure in less developed EU areas. The underlying logic is - the better the infrastructure in Greece or Croatia, the more easily we in the UK can get our goods to their markets. A stronger economy for them, (less likelihood of reverting to failed states which is still the most important European ideal) - but moreover, as these investments help them become more wealthy they will both be more able to buy our goods and those new roads mean we'll be more easily able to get them there. Unfortunately you need a bureaucracy to administer it and that, as well as the simplistic "our money going to foreigners" became easy targets for the Daily Mail and were never properly defended by ministers of either party, for whom the EU was a convenient scapegoat which could never really fight back.

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16 hours ago, Paully said:

It was a referendum, not a neverendum. A one off decision making process. Another is out of the question.

What strange attitude . Every day of our lives we make decisions. Sometimes we make good decisions but at other times we make bad decisions. Are you honestly saying that in your opinion whatever decision is ever taken about anything people should not ever be able to change their minds? If that is your position then surely you would want to abide by the result of the 1975 referendum. I can see no reason why a decision on anything should not be changed especially when that decision was made without being in full possession of the facts. When the talks with the EU are concluded we will all be in a position to make a valid judgement. Until that time all opinions are conjecture. There was no magic about 23rd June 2016. It was not as day when it was impossible to make mistakes it should not be a day about which people are not allowed to change their minds.

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1 hour ago, G4rth said:

What strange attitude . Every day of our lives we make decisions. Sometimes we make good decisions but at other times we make bad decisions. Are you honestly saying that in your opinion whatever decision is ever taken about anything people should not ever be able to change their minds? If that is your position then surely you would want to abide by the result of the 1975 referendum. I can see no reason why a decision on anything should not be changed especially when that decision was made without being in full possession of the facts. When the talks with the EU are concluded we will all be in a position to make a valid judgement. Until that time all opinions are conjecture. There was no magic about 23rd June 2016. It was not as day when it was impossible to make mistakes it should not be a day about which people are not allowed to change their minds.

Very interesting. Those words I chose were not mine, they were those of David Cameron the PM when he said them. Have you forgotten??..We did abide by the decision of 1975, which is why we are having this conversation today. That however was to join the European Economic Community and being lied to by Heath regarding the `project` we find ourselves now leaving . You may want to re ballot, but I don`t think there is any enthusiasm within Government for that to happen. Hence my firm belief it won`t. When we get to the end process after 2 years or more, it will be after difficult processes and recriminations, with both sides no doubt glad to see the back of each other. If we have another referendum and the result comes out, the way you wish, do you seriously think we can opt to stay in??. Sorry, in my opinion the die has been cast and whilst the theory exists to of course follow your desired outcome,in reality and the cold light of day its not going to happen..I think deep down you know that

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