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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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My plan for theNorthern Ireland border.    We announce that we intend to leave our Northern side of it absolutely as it is .... people can come from south to north exactly as they do now... goods and freight can come from south to north too .. no checks, no customs posts, no import taxes on our side of that border.  

Then we invite Southern Ireland to do whatever they wish on their side for goods and people going the other way,   and face the consequences of their action. 

Edited by wortley

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2 hours ago, G4rth said:

 

That was the interpretation I put on the sentence in your previous post when you said

“Our inability to pick and choose who we buy from or sell to is hurting us badly.”

If that was an incorrect interpretation of what you said, I apologise but that is quite genuinely the way it appeared to me. I know Gareth thinks that I am engaging in some Machiavellian plot to deliberately misinterpret posts but I can assure you that this isn’t the case.

I'm aware my brain is in some respects not wired in a conventional manner as I find it difficult to recognise faces at times. A young lady, whom I had employed for six years changed her hair style and I didn’t recognise her so I may well, although I’m not aware of it, not see things in a totally conventional manner. Although no one has raised this with me before, apart from Gareth of course, it doesn’t mean it’s not correct.

If I do misunderstand you or anyone else, it’s not deliberate, just say “silly old fool” under your breath and forget about it.

G4rth, you never have been and never will be a "silly old fool". Your opinions and voice matter and you, quite rightly, question responses you are sceptical about.

You keep me on my toes and more importantly motivate me to ensure my responses are accurate in terms of the information I have from within what were in my mind just dust gathering tomes. I'm a hoarder, I've got hundreds of them, can't resist, I could build the Pyramids at Giza. What's worse is that I have a brain which ran at 1000 mph... until I blew the fuse and the lights went out. I think I was born with my own built in supply of amphetamine,  Insatiable for information, I used to do algebraic fractions in my head... I can't anymore.

The really scary part is that I actually read them... how sad is that!

Your an important member of the gang, please don't ever think otherwise.😉

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8 hours ago, jonno said:

G4rth, you never have been and never will be a "silly old fool". Your opinions and voice matter and you, quite rightly, question responses you are sceptical about.

You keep me on my toes and more importantly motivate me to ensure my responses are accurate in terms of the information I have from within what were in my mind just dust gathering tomes. I'm a hoarder, I've got hundreds of them, can't resist, I could build the Pyramids at Giza. What's worse is that I have a brain which ran at 1000 mph... until I blew the fuse and the lights went out. I think I was born with my own built in supply of amphetamine,  Insatiable for information, I used to do algebraic fractions in my head... I can't anymore.

The really scary part is that I actually read them... how sad is that!

Your an important member of the gang, please don't ever think otherwise.😉

Hear, hear.  No G4rth and no Jardinier and the debate here would be poorer for it.  Important and valued contributors, both.

(Once upon a time, G4rth used to chip in about ferry stuff too!) 😉

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8 hours ago, breizhFan said:

You need to remember that Northern Ireland is a unique place with a very tragic & troubled history.

The Good Friday Agreement has helped to secure peace for 20 years now; If there is to be a no-deal Brexit, then there will have to be border checks, this surely cannot be a positive thing?

BTW - the term "Southern Ireland" will not endear you to the locals  🙂

If there are Border checks then there will be no Good Friday agreement, nobody should underestimate the trouble that could erupt in Ireland if that situation arose.

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16 hours ago, jonno said:

 Back in 1970 a deficit of £31 million did for Wilson, now it's pushing £140 billion and no one seems to mind?

Our trade with the EU is dire. Between 2012 and 2016 the EU deficit doubled from £41 billion to £82 Billion, now for manufacturing it stands at £98 million. The EU's single market is great for manufactures not so good for service providers which the UK is. That's in deficit to the EU too to the tune of £40 billion.

We've been in deficit to the EU since the late '90's.

If you subtract the surplus we have from the rest of the world we're still in deficit by £92 billion. Our inability to pick and choose who we buy from or sell to is hurting us badly.

 

It's a very difficult number to view in isolation. Without examining what those goods are are what benefits they bring. If part of that deficit is equipment that enables UK trade elsewhere, then the deficit could be misleading as you may require it in order to catch a bigger fish. Certainly Germany produces a lot of industrial equipment.

The logical conclusion to that kind of thinking is Trumps approach to Canada/Nafta. Personally, I don't buy the protectionist argument.

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1 hour ago, neilcvx said:

If there are Border checks then there will be no Good Friday agreement, nobody should underestimate the trouble that could erupt in Ireland if that situation arose.

And there will be equal trouble if anything happens that treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK.  Which is what the EU is trying to force through.  The reality is, unfortunately, quite simple and quite stark.  Unless the EU stops trying to interfere in this very sensitive area, and leaves the UK and Ireland to sort this one out between them, then there will be no deal.  No UK government can possibly accept what the EU is trying to push through (which is, effectively, the first step in separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and uniting Ireland as one country).

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12 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

As a member state of the EU Ireland has a say what happens to its Border and the EU is putting that point of view across.

As someone who lives in the Republic of Ireland can I say we are aghast at what is going on & the ill informed commentary on the UK's exit from the EU

Firstly if & when the UK leaves the EU the border between the north & south becomes an EU border  and has to be controlled. There are 142 crossing points between the North & South 

& the IRA before they "gave  up" the armed struggle used this to move goods, launder fuel , carry out vat  fraud etc & you can be sure that if there are tariffs introduced  following the UK leaving then they will be rubbing their hands at the new possibilities that will open up to them to carry out fraudalent activity .Controls will have to be in place & the UK may face facts & accept this . The problem is that even if some deal were to be hammered out the Conservative Government [ relying on the DUP for support] don't have the necessary majority to bring it through Parliament ?

It would appear to me & I will probably be attacked for saying it is that the British Public were sold a pup before the vote with memorable items like the £350 million extra that would be available for the NHS which probably had a big impact on how people voted. Would the vote be different now - hard to tell but both Ireland & the UK are hurtling to March next year  with little possibility of a resolution & the impact on both economies will be very severe with a no deal scenario.

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8 minutes ago, kgst said:

Firstly if & when the UK leaves the EU the border between the north & south becomes an EU border  and has to be controlled. There are 142 crossing points between the North & South

This goes to the heart of the problem.  Should the UK leave the EU without an agreement "Southern Ireland" becomes obliged to impose the Common Customs Tariff.  In practice, this means customs checks on people and vehicles travelling from North to South.  With 40,000 commuters crossing the border daily the potential disruption to daily life is significant. 

This poster, a Dublin resident, remembers the old days when there were long queues at border crossings, which were manned by army personnel complete with sub-machine guns.  Today, we cross the border at the motorway speed limit.  Nobody wants to go back to the old days and this is why the EU, influenced by Dublin, is pushing for Northern Ireland to remain within the customs union.

       

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Yes, it is very difficult to see any solution to the Northern Ireland problem.  I hate to say it but (barring either Ireland leaving the EU or the UK not leaving the EU, neither of which are likely to happen) it might be that a referendum will need to be held in Northern Ireland.  Stay in the UK or stay in the EU.  Can’t imagine what the consequences of that would be, though, if it is other than decisive.  But it’s difficult to see how there can not be a border somewhere, and if there is going to have to be one then it’s also difficult to see how the decision about where it goes can not be put to the people of Northern Ireland.

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2 minutes ago, Khaines said:

This just came up on my Facebook feed, could get interesting if this is the case.  ECJ could allow Parliament to cancel A50.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45601394

 So ,they're off the Europe's highest court are they? Good luck with that, Brussels will not overturn Article 50 it's not even negotiable. You can negotiate once Article 50 is triggered but that doesn't stop the ultimate outcome.

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13 minutes ago, jonno said:

 So ,they're off the Europe's highest court are they? Good luck with that, Brussels will not overturn Article 50 it's not even negotiable. You can negotiate once Article 50 is triggered but that doesn't stop the ultimate outcome.

@jonno an authority whose opinion has greater authority than Europe’s highest court.

If there wasn’t a realistic prospect of a decision either way the court wouldn’t have their time wasted listening to the arguments.

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Even if they won the case (and it is established that Article 50 can be revoked), which they might not, and even if Brussels was willing to overturn Article 50 (which I suspect they would be, but who knows), it's academic unless the government falls and there is a General Election before 29 March.  The government (and it is for the government to do, not parliament) has stated it will not revoke Article 50.

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19 minutes ago, Khaines said:

Thanks Brigitte I hadn't read that one. I was going by an EU "Right to Change Your Mind" report last January which said that:

"The lack of indication either way in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty means that it cannot be a unilateral decision made by the UK., nor can it go ahead even if the other bloc's 27 countries give their consent.

" The assumption that there is a self affirming right of member states to interpret the silence of the treaty in the matter and conclude that the U.K. (or any) notification of withdrawal under Article 50 can be revoked would have long lasting political and legal consequences for the EU."

The report also highlights that any decision for approving revocation would see an end to Britain's 6 billion euro EU budget rebate and also that the UK government has been warned that they'll lose their Treaty opt outs.

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26 minutes ago, jonno said:

Thanks Brigitte I hadn't read that one. I was going by an EU "Right to Change Your Mind" report last January which said that:

"The lack of indication either way in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty means that it cannot be a unilateral decision made by the UK., nor can it go ahead even if the other bloc's 27 countries give their consent.

" The assumption that there is a self affirming right of member states to interpret the silence of the treaty in the matter and conclude that the U.K. (or any) notification of withdrawal under Article 50 can be revoked would have long lasting political and legal consequences for the EU."

The report also highlights that any decision for approving revocation would see an end to Britain's 6 billion euro EU budget rebate and also that the UK government has been warned that they'll lose their Treaty opt outs.

It is all very confusing at the moment, Jonno -  there is so much conflicting info about.  May has given a speech this afternoon hasn’t she, to br honest I switched the News off as I guess all she will be saying is that she will carry on insisting that she will carry on with Chequers.  Been talk on social media that she will call a GE although I doubt that very much,  I will wait and see the news later.  She does my head in, she is upsetting both sides of the vote, she seems totally deaf that what she has been told in Saltzburg.  I really am fed up with listening to her.  I am going to go and do some shopping instead this afternoon and see what she has had to say later.  Much the same as always I expect.

Edited by Khaines
Corrected typo

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She is listening and has made it clear that what the EU is saying is not acceptable.  She outlined why.  It is clear that there is a complete impasse.  The UK is not going to agree to anything that either fails to respect the referendum result or breaks up the United Kingdom.  And it looks like the EU is not going to agree to anything that doesn't involve one of those two things.  Hence it is now increasingly difficult to see much point in further talking, let alone any kind of deal being agreed.

She did unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK, even in the event of no deal, which is a good thing to have done.  Beyond that - it is looking like we might be keeping our 39 billion pounds or whatever it is.  We can put that to good use, mitigating the short-term effects of a no-deal Brexit on the economy.

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May has been done up like a kipper.

She gave the EU (Merkel) advanced viewing of her Chequers proposal back in July and they have tacitly approved the initiative simply by not rejecting earlier. They have now rejected in the most humiliating way possible. But May has allowed that to happen by offering so many concessions before negotiations even began and by not adequately preparing for a no deal as soon as article 50 was triggered.

We are now in a position where we have to choose to either remain in the single market and custom union or leave with at best a Canada style free trade agreement.

I can fully understand remain supporters view that the referendum was a bad result and that they have the right to try every legal means to overturn the result but ministers like Hammond, who I believe also holds this view also have a duty to robustly prepare this country for all eventualities be it natural events, war, or in this case economic shocks, this Government has singularly failed to do this and history will judge them accordingly.

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In some ways we should not be surprised.  We were probably naïve to think that negotiating with the EU was possible, and in retrospect a no-deal outcome was probably inevitable from Day 1.  Again, it all comes back to the nature of the EU.  The very things that made it necessary for us to leave the EU in the first place are the same things that make negotiating with them impossible.  Every time Tusk or his officials come on TV and make their pronouncements, it should be clear to all why we as a nation want no part of their institutions.

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1 hour ago, Gareth said:

In some ways we should not be surprised.  We were probably naïve to think that negotiating with the EU was possible, and in retrospect a no-deal outcome was probably inevitable from Day 1.  Again, it all comes back to the nature of the EU.  The very things that made it necessary for us to leave the EU in the first place are the same things that make negotiating with them impossible.  Every time Tusk or his officials come on TV and make their pronouncements, it should be clear to all why we as a nation want no part of their institutions.

 

Opinions are great things but it’s massively presumptive to expect that everyone in the UK doesn’t respect Mr Tusks point of view, there’s still a large percentage of the nation that want to be part of the EU and respect it’s integrity.

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Agreed, but shrinking though.  Apparently many remain voters were not impressed by what they saw from the EU earlier in the week.

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