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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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2 hours ago, G4rth said:

May calls general election for 8th June.

Spoke to soon didn't I!!  My opinion is that Labour will be wiped out, I follow quite a few Remain Facebook pages and many Labour voters are switching to Lib Dems, as are many Tory Remain voters and those Leave voters who suddenly found out exactly wnat Leave means - leave - but still want the single market and the customs union.  That is what I have noticed.  Lib Dems will be nicking Labour, and Tory voters left right and centre.  Not sure about the Greens or SNP, but Mrs May's "landslide" might be more of a bit of slippage.  We could well see another hung parliament.  Corbyn has killed Labour with his pro Brexit stance and his voters are deserting him.  He has as much chance to getting the keys to Number 10 as I have of being a space tourist.

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I think she has done the right thing,but disagree on Corbyn pro brexit stance don't think the idiot knows himself what he wants.it is a good thing for labour voters to ,when he gets hammered in the election he will have to leave.i have have been a labour member and voted for them on every election but not this time.

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Corbyn wants the party to step back sixty years to those good old days of Nationalisation, strikes and "Ban the Bomb" - he will eventually be ousted but it will take years for the Labour Party to recover...

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2 hours ago, Ryan_H said:

Yes and this should be a chance for people to have their say and to punish the Tory party for it's frankly disgraceful self-indulgent behaviour in calling the referendum in the first place; they have forced a needles self-inflicted wound upon this country, wasted millions in holding the referendum and all it's associated costs and all for their own selfish reasons of 'party management'. Ken Clarke says as much in his memoir. But of course if the government is shocking the opposition is even more so and that, as we know, is the only reason Theresa May is doing this, because she feels she can't lose. So I hope people think long and hard before casting their votes and about what is really important to them and their families.

You may not agree Ryan, but to a lot of people Brexit was really important to them and their families. They will vote accordingly and expect TM to go full steam ahead after the election

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19 minutes ago, Paully said:

You may not agree Ryan, but to a lot of people Brexit was really important to them and their families. They will vote accordingly and expect TM to go full steam ahead after the election

So, in this general election people are going to put ‘Brexit’, by which I mean leaving the EU and customs union, ahead of the NHS, schools, taxation, transport and everything else are they? Opinion polls have demonstrated for many years that, whilst much of the population was pretty Eurosceptic, when it came to general elections the issue of Europe was not even in their top 3 priorities. There was always the hard-core who were obsessed with the subject, but never the bulk of the population. Which made the calling of the referendum all the more politically-motivated.

 

And what proportion of the electorate truly understood what they were voting for last June? As has been said elsewhere the level of public ignorance in relation to the EU, how it actually works (as opposed to what the press claims) and what impact it truly has on our country, is pretty staggering.

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22 minutes ago, Paully said:

You may not agree Ryan, but to a lot of people Brexit was really important to them and their families. They will vote accordingly and expect TM to go full steam ahead after the election

Brexit may be "really important to a lot of poeple" but you must recognize that remaining in the EU is also really important to a lot of people. The country is split down the middle in so many ways. Those that wish to remain in the EU have every reason to go out and vote. Those that support Brexit, well, they think it's done and dusted.

 

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17 minutes ago, Ryan_H said:

So, in this general election people are going to put ‘Brexit’, by which I mean leaving the EU and customs union, ahead of the NHS, schools, taxation, transport and everything else are they? Opinion polls have demonstrated for many years that, whilst much of the population was pretty Eurosceptic, when it came to general elections the issue of Europe was not even in their top 3 priorities. There was always the hard-core who were obsessed with the subject, but never the bulk of the population. Which made the calling of the referendum all the more politically-motivated.

 

And what proportion of the electorate truly understood what they were voting for last June? As has been said elsewhere the level of public ignorance in relation to the EU, how it actually works (as opposed to what the press claims) and what impact it truly has on our country, is pretty staggering.

I think that in the past year EU stuff has eclipsed a lot of stuff.  Maybe years ago it wasn't so much of an issue but the country is very divided by an issue that is not going to disappear.  At this moment in time, we should not speculate about ANY outcome.  Polls got the last election wrong, they got the referendum vote wrong - everybody assumed it would be a Remain win, so we should not take anything for granted.  If May ends up in another hung parliament with probably the Lib Dems, my bet is that she'll be off.  It is her way or the highway.  She wants everything her own way, OK, Brexit aside, what about other important matters that she wants to have everything her own way on.  While people who voted Leave seem happy to see her steamroller her plans through Parliament, what people have to remember that she could just as well be the same with other things.  A hung parliament would be a good outcome.

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6 minutes ago, Ryan_H said:

So, in this general election people are going to put ‘Brexit’, by which I mean leaving the EU and customs union, ahead of the NHS, schools, taxation, transport and everything else are they? Opinion polls have demonstrated for many years that, whilst much of the population was pretty Eurosceptic, when it came to general elections the issue of Europe was not even in their top 3 priorities. There was always the hard-core who were obsessed with the subject, but never the bulk of the population. Which made the calling of the referendum all the more politically-motivated.

 

And what proportion of the electorate truly understood what they were voting for last June? As has been said elsewhere the level of public ignorance in relation to the EU, how it actually works (as opposed to what the press claims) and what impact it truly has on our country, is pretty staggering.

Leaving the EU and customs union presents a great opportunity for the UK to reach back to the Commonwealth, ensure beneficial trade deals and reduce regulations when trading within the UK itself. 

Yes the referendum was politically motivated but even before the UKIP threat, Cameron wanted treaty change and a referendum. It was about time the people had a say on Europe. The UK did not vote for political union in 1975 and the constant transferal of sovereignty to Brussels was never approved. 

I think you'll find that most people who voted remain were the ignorant ones. Most voted remain for purely economic reasons, rather than about the institutions within the EU and the vast democratic deficit. I never heard someone make a case for why the European Parliament is good for the UK or why EU law being supreme over UK law is beneficial. Did those voting remain know all of the presidents of the EU? Did those voting remain know that there was even more than one president? Did those voting remain know that EU law is supreme over UK law? Did those voting remain know that the EU is the only declining trade area except Antartica? I am certain many did not. 

And before you say that those who voted leave voted mainly for stricter laws on immigration or as a protest vote, why does every poll from those who voted leave have the democratic deficit/sovereignty as the main issue. If I remember correctly, immigration was actually third most important. 

On the flip-side those voting to leave the EU were well aware that would mean leaving the single market, having control over immigration and having control over the laws of the land. The whole "take back control" wasn't some empty rhetoric, it was a literal summary of what Brexit meant. 

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Liam Fox just traveled all over the "Commonwealth " to arrange trade deals and got precisely zero deals signed but it's ok we're taking back control and getting rid of those pesky immigrants like doctors,nurses etc who are leaving already.

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41 minutes ago, 8410Commodore said:

Leaving the EU and customs union presents a great opportunity for the UK to reach back to the Commonwealth, ensure beneficial trade deals and reduce regulations when trading within the UK itself. 

Yes the referendum was politically motivated but even before the UKIP threat, Cameron wanted treaty change and a referendum. It was about time the people had a say on Europe. The UK did not vote for political union in 1975 and the constant transferal of sovereignty to Brussels was never approved. 

I think you'll find that most people who voted remain were the ignorant ones. Most voted remain for purely economic reasons, rather than about the institutions within the EU and the vast democratic deficit. I never heard someone make a case for why the European Parliament is good for the UK or why EU law being supreme over UK law is beneficial. Did those voting remain know all of the presidents of the EU? Did those voting remain know that there was even more than one president? Did those voting remain know that EU law is supreme over UK law? Did those voting remain know that the EU is the only declining trade area except Antartica? I am certain many did not. 

And before you say that those who voted leave voted mainly for stricter laws on immigration or as a protest vote, why does every poll from those who voted leave have the democratic deficit/sovereignty as the main issue. If I remember correctly, immigration was actually third most important. 

On the flip-side those voting to leave the EU were well aware that would mean leaving the single market, having control over immigration and having control over the laws of the land. The whole "take back control" wasn't some empty rhetoric, it was a literal summary of what Brexit meant. 

Reach back?

Sorry to disillusion you but the world has moved on, the Empire has gone. 

"And before you say that those who voted leave voted mainly for stricter laws on immigration".

Well that was certainly the case on polls shortly after the the referendum. People are now beginning to realise that the country would grind to a halt if immigration was restricted.

"why does every poll from those who voted leave have the democratic deficit/sovereignty as the main issue".

So you think that the UK doesn't have any democratic deficit? Your fine with a first past the post electoral system? Your fine with MP's, your elected representatives, being whipped to support government policies regardless of their constituents wishes? It's fine by you for members of the Royal Family to have veto's over bills before they even reach parliament? Your fine with the fact that Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales can be ignored on the whim of the Prime Minister? Even the UK government now admits there was never a sovereignty issue. The country was sold a pig in a poke.

I'm afraid the very real "democratic deficit" is not with the EU, it's at Westminster. Leaving the EU will only make matters worse.

 

Edited by G4rth

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36 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

Liam Fox just traveled all over the "Commonwealth " to arrange trade deals and got precisely zero deals signed but it's ok we're taking back control and getting rid of those pesky immigrants like doctors,nurses etc who are leaving already.

When Fox was travelling, we weren't allowed to start formal trade talks with other countries so it's no surprise that there were zero deals. 

30 minutes ago, G4rth said:

Reach back?

Sorry to disillusion you but the world has moved on, the Empire has gone. 

"And before you say that those who voted leave voted mainly for stricter laws on immigration".

Well that was certainly the case on polls shortly after the the referendum. People are now beginning to realise that the country would grind to a halt if immigration was restricted.

"why does every poll from those who voted leave have the democratic deficit/sovereignty as the main issue".

So you think that the UK doesn't have any democratic deficit? Your fine with a first past the post electoral system? Your fine with MP's, your elected representatives, being whipped to support government policies regardless of their constituents wishes? It's fine by you for members of the Royal Family to have veto's over bills before they even reach parliament? Your fine with the fact that Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales can be ignored on the whim of the Prime Minister? Even the UK government now admits there was never a sovereignty issue. The country was sold a pig in a poke.

I'm afraid the very real "democratic deficit" is not with the EU, it's at Westminster. Leaving the EU will only make matters worse.

Yes the Empire has gone. And quite rightly too. Nations should have the right for self determination. But that does not mean we should neglect them and not trade with them. 

People realised the country would grind to a halt if immigration was stopped, not restricted. The leave campaign were fairly clear they do not want to stop immigration. 

I'm sorry, Royal Assent has not been refused since 1707 so you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Scotland, Wales and NI is just how things are, if the majority of political power (i.e. the number of MPs) mainly lies in England then there is little Parliament can do other than give disproportionate power to them. With the whipping system, that is the nature of any representative parliamentary system of government. We do not operate a direct democracy (which many liberals now oppose as it has resulted in brexit) and if constituents disagree with their MP, they can simply vote them out next time.  Or alternatively we can extend the power to recall MPs beyond misconduct.

As for FPTP, that is a matter of opinion. Is it democratic for:

  • governments to be formed with no mandate as no one votes for a coalition
  • people to not have a choice over MPs who assume office after a death or resignation 
  • people to not have a representative of their community in Parliament 

I am well aware of FPTP and its (many) deficiencies. But the other options are hardly any better. AV was rejected by the people, PR is just a mess for a country that is too partisan (it took a year for Spain to form a new government and after that year, nothing really had changed) and the remaining systems (SV, STV, AMS etc) are either too complicated or will have little effect. There is also little appetite for electoral reform in the country however, as shown by the referendum, there is large appetite for change with our relationship with the EU. 

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1 hour ago, neilcvx said:

Liam Fox just traveled all over the "Commonwealth " to arrange trade deals and got precisely zero deals signed but it's ok we're taking back control and getting rid of those pesky immigrants like doctors,nurses etc who are leaving already.

A trade deal with America means agriculture as well which could mean chlorine washed chicken and hormone fed beef.  Along with probably loads of other US nasties.

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22 minutes ago, 8410Commodore said:

When Fox was travelling, we weren't allowed to start formal trade talks with other countries so it's no surprise that there were zero deals. 

Yes the Empire has gone. And quite rightly too. Nations should have the right for self determination. But that does not mean we should neglect them and not trade with them. 

People realised the country would grind to a halt if immigration was stopped, not restricted. The leave campaign were fairly clear they do not want to stop immigration. 

I'm sorry, Royal Assent has not been refused since 1707 so you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Scotland, Wales and NI is just how things are, if the majority of political power (i.e. the number of MPs) mainly lies in England then there is little Parliament can do other than give disproportionate power to them. With the whipping system, that is the nature of any representative parliamentary system of government. We do not operate a direct democracy (which many liberals now oppose as it has resulted in brexit) and if constituents disagree with their MP, they can simply vote them out next time.  Or alternatively we can extend the power to recall MPs beyond misconduct.

As for FPTP, that is a matter of opinion. Is it democratic for:

  • governments to be formed with no mandate as no one votes for a coalition
  • people to not have a choice over MPs who assume office after a death or resignation 
  • people to not have a representative of their community in Parliament 

I am well aware of FPTP and its (many) deficiencies. But the other options are hardly any better. AV was rejected by the people, PR is just a mess for a country that is too partisan (it took a year for Spain to form a new government and after that year, nothing really had changed) and the remaining systems (SV, STV, AMS etc) are either too complicated or will have little effect. There is also little appetite for electoral reform in the country however, as shown by the referendum, there is large appetite for change with our relationship with the EU. 

So don't we trade with anyone else but the EU then? What you want already happens. So Royal Assent isn't refused. That is not what I was talking about. That occurs after a parliamentary vote. I was talking about ideas being vetoed then shelved before even getting to parliament. If your happy with the present system then that's great but some of us would like to see a form of government that is " inclusive of all " rather than the " devil take the hindmost " near dictatorship system that we are at present governed by.

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The voting system for Holyrood seems to work well managing to keep the SNP in check and not giving too much power to one party as was shown by the large number of SNP MPs at Westminster.

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41 minutes ago, 8410Commodore said:

I am well aware of FPTP and its (many) deficiencies. But the other options are hardly any better. AV was rejected by the people, PR is just a mess for a country that is too partisan

PR has proved hugely valuable in Northern Ireland.  The Assembly is much more constructive and less sectarian than Stormont when elected by FPTP.  When introduced, the slogan (supported by Westminster politicians) was "PR is as easy as 1-2-3".  It was that simple to vote.  PR has its drawbacks, but really deserves a fair hearing, especially if an electorate is strongly partisan.

For anyone curious to see it work, try stepping through the stages of a constituency count: http://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-2017/belfast-south

(impressive website from the Belfast Telegraph illustrating the counts from last month's Assembly elections)  

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Oh God! Not another Election/Referendum.

Where will it all end and what is really the point? The politicians are just playing games with us to cover up their incompetencies. I doubt if I will vote, and anyway we are due to be in Greece on 8th June and thankfully away from it all.

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9 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

Oh God! Not another Election/Referendum.

Where will it all end and what is really the point? The politicians are just playing games with us to cover up their incompetencies. I doubt if I will vote, and anyway we are due to be in Greece on 8th June and thankfully away from it all.

The only plus point for me is that I will make a lot of extra money delivering election mailings and polling cards again all at the tax payers expense.

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Good point neilcvx, I am all for money in workers pockets as they don't get pay rises any more. Meanwhile who is paying the bill for another election after only 2 years and what will be the full cost of Brexit, I expect that this is another government cost that will never be fully disclosed. If the United Kingdom is so short of money how can Mrs May justify an election on top of the cost of leaving Europe, around £52bn I understand, maybe the great British public will see the the light just boycott the ballot, register your protest by not voting is always one option.

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I heard on the news tonight that a lot of Conservative voters will probably not vote as they think the result is a foregone conclusion.  Isn't this the same attitude that ended up with us getting a Leave win?  Many Remain voters didn't bother voting as they thought it was a foregone conclusion that Remain would win.  Cameron thought so too, which is why he offered the referendum.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion and we have had some very recent examples as to why.  

As I saw in a Facebook post tonight, June could be the end of May....😉

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It will be interesting if the CPS prosecute any existing MPs for electoral fraud over the 2015 general election. They don't have much time left to do it.

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Seems to me that, whichever side of the fence you sit on the issue of the EU, there is broad agreement about the following:

1.  The announcement of a General Election to legitimise (or otherwise) May's government ahead of the negotiations is widely approved of (albeit with differering hopes and expectations of the outcome).

2.  The polls predict a landslde Conservative win at the present time (but the reputation of the pollsters has taken a bit of a knock recently).

3.  The Labour party is about to be all but wiped out.  (A spectacular self-destruction entirely of their own making, and entirely deserved, but a significant problem for the UK constitution in that it is never a good thing for the government of the day to face no meaningful opposition.)

4.  The Lib Dems are likely to stage a remarkable come-back as they will be the natural home for all pro-EU voters.  How that translates into seats remains to be seen. But could we see the Lib Dems as the official opposition?  Would be a tall order, but with the state of the Labour party, who knows.

5.  We will probably see the final nail in the coffin of UKIP, which has now served its purpose and no longer has anything of substance to stand for.

6.  Whilst it is true that General Elections are about a whole load of issues, this particular one is bound to be dominated by Brexit.  To that effect, it is effectviely the "second opinion" on Brexit that so many have been clamouring for.  It will settle, once and for all, the question of whether the electorate has "changed its mind" or not.

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The whole point of fixed term parliaments was to stop situations like this happening I think Mrs Mays comments today made a mockery of democracy. And point 6 is wrong too as you can't have a general election decided on one issue no matter how much you want it to be. 

The real issue to me is whether we will see a massive political change in Ireland and or Scotland and the end of the union.

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As usual I expect the outcome will depend not on how many people vote for whom they want to win but how many vote against those whom they don't want to win.

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22 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

The whole point of fixed term parliaments was to stop situations like this happening I think Mrs Mays comments today made a mockery of democracy. And point 6 is wrong too as you can't have a general election decided on one issue no matter how much you want it to be. 

The real issue to me is whether we will see a massive political change in Ireland and or Scotland and the end of the union.

I do agree with your first paragraph and you are quite right in your thinking. My view is similar to yours, but on the other hand we have a country divided. Almost as many against as for. In that context its inevitable that the election will be dominated by one issue. It cannot be any other way. It may even  go some way to lancing the current Brexit boil, although I doubt it. Under the circumstance and taking all into account I don`t think she had any choice but go to the country. 

  Re your last paragraph I do not want to see the end of the Union, not at any price. 

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8 minutes ago, Paully said:

Re your last paragraph I do not want to see the end of the Union, not at any price. 

I think with regard to Northern Ireland the question is when it leaves the Union not if. That is an inevitable consequence of the differing birth rates between Unionists and Nationalists. 

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