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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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1 minute ago, neilcvx said:

Which could very realistically affect Scotland’s position in the union and be an effect of Brexit hence why it’s being discussed.

I think the connection is tenuous.  There is only a connection because the SNP will try to use Brexit as an excuse to push for another independence referendum.  There is no actual, real dependence on the Brexit outcome of the drive for independence, it's just a convenient pretext.  Those who want independence (like the SNP and your good self) want it anyway; Brexit is immaterial to that wish.

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There is only a push for independence because of Brexit and the possible outcome there would be no campaign from the SNP otherwise it’s not a tenuous link it’s the sole reason for the current talk about independence, the facts are a favourable deal to NI would create amongst other problems a massive problem in Scotland for the incumbent UK government.

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Neil, do you really believe what you just typed?  As you said - when was it, yesterday I think - Scottish independence is why the SNP exists.  We both know that Scottish independence has always been, and will always be, its primary policy objective for as long as it is around.  I can't believe that you're seriously suggesting that the SNP would not be pushing for Scottish independence if Brexit was not happening.  As far back as the first independence referendum, before Brexit was even a twinkle in Cameron's eye, the SNP stated it wants another independence referendum and that it wasn't going to let the issue go.

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The SNP wouldn’t hold another referendum without popular support for that position and the current Brexit situation has increased the support for that , there would be no support for another vote so soon unless being taken out the EU against the way the Scottish people had voted happens.

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Just now, neilcvx said:

The SNP wouldn’t hold another referendum without popular support for that position and the current Brexit situation has increased the support for that , there would be no support for another vote so soon unless being taken out the EU against the way the Scottish people had voted happens.

Ok, fair enough.

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Anyway, back to the DUP.  I said earlier that I thought the DUP was really an irrelevance in any vote in parliament on a deal, if one comes onto the table.  And I think that is true - even if there was a deal that involved some enhancement of the existing checks across the North Channel, that the DUP could understandably not support, if it was a good deal then it should not require the DUP to approve it and if it is a bad deal then parliament should not approve it, DUP or not.

However.....this issue of the DUP potentially voting down the budget is potentially far more serious.  A deal on the table is still a fair way off, but if the DUP gets wind that the direction of travel in the negotiations is heading towards some sort of enhanced checks arrangement, then whilst the DUP won't be able to scupper a good deal in parliament, they can scupper the government before it gets that far.  Hard to see the voting of parliament against the budget as not leading to the collapse of the government.

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You do wonder how close Arlene Foster and the others in the DUP are involved in the negotiations and why they should be involved any deal involving NI should be made first and foremost to preserve the Good Friday agreement and help keep peace in NI.

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I think I've worked out what that sentence means, and based on what I think it means I think I agree! 😀

(No, stop it Gareth, no place for flippancy - Neil was not saying that he wondered why the DUP should be involved in any deal affecting NI! 😉 )

Regarding the first point, I have to say it had not occurred to me that the DUP would be directly involved in the negotiations (any more than a Tory back bencher would be).  As you say, why should they?  They are not part of the government.  But I suspect they are being briefed by Downing Street as to how the negotiations are progressing.

On the second point, yes, I can't imagine anybody would disagree with that.  The biggest threat to the Good Friday agreement would be a no-deal outcome (which is why, if there is a deal on the table that is worth having, it is the responsibility of every MP to make sure it is approved).

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Just as a by apparently £400 million of the DUP bribe money has been spent the rest is being held back just now, I wonder if that’s relevant.

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46 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

Which could very realistically affect Scotland’s position in the union and be an effect of Brexit hence why it’s being discussed.

Of course Scotland is just as relevant to any Brexit discussion as NI. They both had the majority of their votes cast for remain. Very significant parts of both of their populations that feel they are being denied any say and are being dragged out of the EU by another country. NI only exists as a separate entity because large numbers of Scots were encouraged to move there. NI hasn't yet had a chance to vote on reunification but the demographics are moving, very quickly, in that direction. Scotland may well have the chance to vote first and the results of Brexit will, I'm sure, be very relevant to the outcome.

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1 hour ago, Gareth said:

I think the connection is tenuous.  There is only a connection because the SNP will try to use Brexit as an excuse to push for another independence referendum.  There is no actual, real dependence on the Brexit outcome of the drive for independence, it's just a convenient pretext.  Those who want independence (like the SNP and your good self) want it anyway; Brexit is immaterial to that wish.

In fairness to the Scots, brexit will be a dramatic and sudden departure from the UK that they voted to remain in (how often have we heard that about 1975!). Especially when you take into account that economic uncertainty was such a big factor in the winning campaign. Now that economic uncertainly is guaranteed on both side of the argument, it muddies the water.

There are endless parallels between Scottish independence and Brexit, come to think of it.

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Here is the latest suggestion according to the Irish media - seems that there is a genuine attempt to find a workable solution - however still not enough for the DUP !

European Union officials are considering a dual certification system so that goods produced in Northern Ireland will be able to circulate freely in both the EU and UK markets, 

Another proposal is that goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland could be checked at Dublin Port for EU customs and regulatory compliance before continuing on northwards, as a way of limiting checks and controls at British ports.

Both ideas are among a range of possibilities that the EU Task Force is considering as part of the ongoing effort to "de-dramatise" the backstop.

If the Irish backstop to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland comes into effect, then customs and regulatory checks would have to be carried out on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland, because those goods would then be able to circulate freely throughout the EU’s single market, due to the lack of land border.

Sources close to the negotiations have confirmed that Task Force officials have been exploring such ideas as they redraft the Irish Protocol within the Withdrawal Agreement.

Under a dual certification scheme, goods produced in Northern Ireland would be deemed compliant with both EU and UK standards, so that they could move freely through the island of Ireland and beyond to the single market, and throughout the UK.

The scheme could be implemented by private operators and would be similar to the CE marking that affirms that goods circulating throughout the European Economic Area comply with high safety, health and environmental protection standards.

Under the backstop, Northern Ireland would remain within the single market for goods, so manufacturers there would be complying with EU standards.

A dual system that makes the products certified for both EU and UK markets would, according to sources, help draw the political tension out of the backstop.

Another suggestion is that goods moving between Britain and Northern Ireland could undergo regulatory and customs checks in Dublin Port before travelling onwards to the North.

The Government believes that up to 60% of goods consignments moving from the UK to Northern Ireland, and vice versa, go through Dublin.

If customs and regulatory checks were carried out there, it would further erode the notion of a border between UK and Northern Ireland, according to sources.Officials point out that Dublin Port will be undergoing infrastructural changes anyway in order to anticipate a possible future Free Trade Agreement between the EU and UK, in which case checks would be needed on goods moving from the UK to Ireland.

"What de-dramatisation tries to do is to recognise the nature and type of trade that happens between GB and NI, and to find ways of minimising any checks and controls that would need to be put on that trade," says one source familiar with the negotiations.

It is understood Irish officials have worked closely on the redrafted text.

In a speech to the European Parliament this week, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier spelled out further de-dramatisation proposals.

These would include using existing customs transit procedures to avoid doing checks at a physical border point on goods moving between the UK and Northern Ireland.

Companies in the rest of the UK could fill in their customs declarations online and in advance when shipping to Northern Ireland.

"The only visible systematic checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would involve scanning barcodes on lorries or containers, which could be done on ferries or in transit ports," he said.

This latter idea suggests that Dublin Port is one of the transit points in mind.

A dual certification scheme is also seen as a way of winning Northern Irish businesses over to the backstop.

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45 minutes ago, G4rth said:

Of course Scotland is just as relevant to any Brexit discussion as NI. They both had the majority of their votes cast for remain. Very significant parts of both of their populations that feel they are being denied any say and are being dragged out of the EU by another country. NI only exists as a separate entity because large numbers of Scots were encouraged to move there. NI hasn't yet had a chance to vote on reunification but the demographics are moving, very quickly, in that direction. Scotland may well have the chance to vote first and the results of Brexit will, I'm sure, be very relevant to the outcome.

I have to say, I do agree that it is quite likely that Brexit, down the line, will probably accelerate the reunification of Ireland.  Not immediately maybe, but down the line.  How far down the line, who knows.  But any way you look at it, all the solutions proposed to try to keep NI within an out-of-EU UK seem to be complicated fudges that won't possibly be able to stand the test of time.  Or a change in the political landscape.

What is the mechanism for deciding how/when to put the issue to an actual vote in Northern Ireland?  Lots of opinion polls, which I agree are showing quite a rapid shift, and officially the GFA keeps open reunification "when there is majority support" for it in Northern Ireland.   But how is that information about "majority support" actually obtained?

Wasn't aware that the Scots were the reason for the division of Ireland.  You learn something new every day!

As far as Scotland being "relevant" is concerned, I don't think anyone has suggested that it isn't.  But what it isn't is the main stumbling block in the current negotiations, and I think that was the point being made by the poster that asked why Scotland was being brought into a discussion about the Northern Ireland situation.  Crossed wires, I think. 

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why Scotland is coming up for?is this thread not about brexit not what may or not happen in the future.at the moment we are all in the uk wherever some people like it or not that what it is at the moment.said before the hard work is getting agreement on the cross border customs.sombody has said Ireland could stay in the eu for a short while but that is not going to happen we are called the United Kingdom that means England,Scotland,wales and Northern Ireland  and we have the same rules has each other and nothing more.i don't think May would dare to dilute  any of our rights in the United Kingdom that would bring the goverment down without any doubt.

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This thread is about Brexit and the effects Brexit will have on the UK currently and going forward, if you don’t want to be involved in the discussion about how it affects Scotland skip that post and move onto the next post that you personally regard as important and stop moaning about a discussion that other people find relevant.

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17 minutes ago, nodwad said:

why Scotland is coming up for?is this thread not about brexit not what may or not happen in the future.at the moment we are all in the uk wherever some people like it or not that what it is at the moment.said before the hard work is getting agreement on the cross border customs.sombody has said Ireland could stay in the eu for a short while but that is not going to happen we are called the United Kingdom that means England,Scotland,wales and Northern Ireland  and we have the same rules has each other and nothing more.i don't think May would dare to dilute  any of our rights in the United Kingdom that would bring the goverment down without any doubt.

As you say nodwad "we happen to be called the United Kingdom" but that is just it. That is what we happen to be called because someone in the distant past just happened to have an army that fought slighty better then someone else did or had a sister that he could marry off to some neighbouring warlord. What you feel is nothing to do with what you're called. The large proportion of Scots, Welsh, Irish, Brittany, Cornwall and Glica inhabitants see themselves as a group. It is little wonder that if Ireland is seen to be getting a better outcome than Scotland, Wales or indeed Cornwall then there is going the be trouble for the Union. 

 

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1 hour ago, neilcvx said:

This thread is about Brexit and the effects Brexit will have on the UK currently and going forward, if you don’t want to be involved in the discussion about how it affects Scotland skip that post and move onto the next post that you personally regard as important and stop moaning about a discussion that other people find relevant.

Whoa what is this all about,just because I will not agree with you on this point and Iam not the only one.why cannot you not just say I disagree.?

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,most country's over the years have fought over land and the winners still to this day have the land they won.a little reminder when England won the battle many many Scottish soldiers fought for the English side and a lot of French fought for the Scotland side .iam going to stop myself because this thread was about brexit LIKE now not in the future whatever may happen will be and I have no axe to grind against Scotland at all .has all my relations in Scotland could tell you.

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Simple solution is to just rejoin EFTA. The Ascension process is very simple, cost's around £17m a year, offers single market access whilst allowing third country negotiation.

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2 minutes ago, jonno said:

Simple solution is to just rejoin EFTA. The Ascension process is very simple, cost's around £17m a year, offers single market access whilst allowing third country negotiation.

That seems like a brilliant suggestion .............. I didn't think the organisation still existed!  Why haven't our esteemed politicians come up with the idea?

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do you not think the most important thing at this moment is to get agreement on the border issue first?we all live in the uk and the decision the goverment has to make could make or break the whole uk.i did not mean to look I was having ago at Scotland furthest thing from my mind.yet I do think we are straying a bit on this topic when it is Northern Ireland is where the main sticking point is on a brexit deal.how they are going get around this a do not know but there cannot be different rules for any part of the uk.at this moment in time we are all in the uk wherever we like it or not.

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2 hours ago, nodwad said:

do you not think the most important thing at this moment is to get agreement on the border issue first?we all live in the uk and the decision the goverment has to make could make or break the whole uk.i did not mean to look I was having ago at Scotland furthest thing from my mind.yet I do think we are straying a bit on this topic when it is Northern Ireland is where the main sticking point is on a brexit deal.how they are going get around this a do not know but there cannot be different rules for any part of the uk.at this moment in time we are all in the uk wherever we like it or not.

Joining EFTA means the border issue goes away.

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2 hours ago, nottingham said:

That seems like a brilliant suggestion .............. I didn't think the organisation still existed!  Why haven't our esteemed politicians come up with the idea?

Two reasons why they haven't thought of it. 1/ there is no political will or desire to leave the EU. 2/ wearing a tie cuts off the oxygen to the brain.

 

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4 minutes ago, jonno said:

Two reasons why they haven't thought of it. 1/ there is no political will or desire to leave the EU. 2/ wearing a tie cuts off the oxygen to the brain.

 

One other reason perhaps is that when we and other countries were in EFTA it acted as a virtual waiting room for those wishing to join the EEC and would probably do so again for the EU.

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