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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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1 hour ago, richwarwicker said:

How about 3 options,

may/corbyn 

no deal

remain. 

 

If may/corbyn/ no have over 50% it tells us to proceed with leaving on the biggest scoring of those two options?

I think we need an absolute majority for one option only to avoid the result being contested down the line and I think the EU would probably insist on it too. Ed. 

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2 hours ago, Cabin-boy said:

I'm not against a second referendum being held, If a third option is added then it gets more complicated and you might need a transferable vote system

With a third option I would have thought a two stage vote would perhaps be the best course of action although it would probably involve bitter disputes over the order in which to stage any vote. We could introduce PR them hold a GE. The result would probably cause a hung parliament and force politicians to come to a mutually agreed position.

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50 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I think we need an absolute majority for one option only to avoid the result being contested down the line and I think the EU would probably insist on it too. Ed. 

I think you would have to have second preferences, we know all options split once eliminated and I feel we must correct the mistakes of the last referendum and make sure all options are well defined. Having a unicorn option got us into this mess in the first place. If the first referendum had been more certain (remain Vs EEA for example) then none of this would have happened.

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22 minutes ago, penguin said:

I think you would have to have second preferences, we know all options split once eliminated and I feel we must correct the mistakes of the last referendum and make sure all options are well defined. Having a unicorn option got us into this mess in the first place. If the first referendum had been more certain (remain Vs EEA for example) then none of this would have happened.

The genie is out of the bottle, it's too late to think what should have happened. If we had a two stage referendum we could have week one May's deal yes or no. If the answer is no then the following week vote on leave with no deal or continue the current arrangement and try to reform the EU from within. A bit of slight of hand but if the question was put that way then it is not a repeat of the original referendum because there would be a commitment to try for reform.

 

 

Edited by G4rth

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5 minutes ago, G4rth said:

 

The genie is out of the bottle, it's too late to think what should have happened. If we had a two stage referendum we could have week one May's deal yes or no. If the answer is no then the following week vote on leave with no deal or continue the current arrangement and try to reform the EU from within. A bit of slight of hand but if the question was put that way then it is not a repeat of the original referendum because there would be a commitment to try for reform.

 

 

Have we ever had two-stage elections like that in the UK before? It's the way they do things in France with a two-week gap for further campaigning. Would people in the UK find that too laborious a process? Ed. 

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9 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

Have we ever had two-stage elections like that in the UK before? It's the way they do things in France with a two-week gap for further campaigning. Would people in the UK find that too laborious a process? Ed. 

I don't think we ever have perhaps that's something we could learn from the French. I assume you are wise enough to have PR as well so everyone's vote counts.

 

 

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1 minute ago, G4rth said:

I don't think we ever have perhaps that's something we could learn from the French. I assume you are wise enough to have PR as well so everyone's vote counts.

 

 

Sadly not. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/is-there-proportional-representation-in-france/&ved=2ahUKEwiet6bSzrjhAhUHohQKHdozC2AQFjALegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw14egvJoyYO8HEjZPv3KfJ2

Ed

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Yes for local elections, but no for EU elections as the timeframe is too short and so there's just one round.

Ed

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Next week looks like fun. Parliament won't allow a no deal Brexit. France, Spain and Belgium don't want an extension. May asking for the same short delay that's already been turned down. If everyone sticks to their guns revoke article 50 would appear to be the only alternative.

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There have been an increasing number of reports on French TV in the last week or so about fears for the French fishing industry. As UK waters (particularly south of Plymouth) are much richer in fish stocks than the other side of the channel, a large number of Breton and Norman boats cross each week and then return to unload in France. If there is a 'no deal' Brexit this Friday, UK waters will be out of bounds and they fear large scale job losses and certain ports like Roscoff could loss a significant proportion of their fleets. The fish markets are also worried that they may have to close because they no longer have enough fish to sell. They accept that it may be necessary to buy stocks from British fishermen instead but that's unlikely to be a palatable option. Ed. 

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Anyone notice the vase of tulips beside Mrs May when she did that video today.  Wonder if she visits here...😂😁👍

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13 hours ago, Khaines said:

Anyone notice the vase of tulips beside Mrs May when she did that video today.  Wonder if she visits here...😂😁👍

Presumably supplied by our Dutch friends. I think that says everything we need to know about the viability of hard brexit 🤣

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41 minutes ago, wortley said:

No deal has been ruled out. 

That’s not quite right.  It has been ruled out as parliamentary policy, but that does not mean it can’t happen.  The law recently passed obliges the PM to ask for an extension if exit date approaches with no deal approved.  But that’s it.  Some voices in the EU have suggested there will not be an approval for a third extension.  In the absence of an extension request being approved, it remains the law that we will leave on the new exit date without a deal unless one has been agreed by then or unless article 50 is revoked.  Any one of the three outcomes is still possible by then (and you’d have to say that if we get to anywhere near 31 October without a deal having been agreed then it is almost inconceivable that we will have the same government in power, so anything is possible depending on who actually is in power by then).

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There is no government in power at the present time. There is a government in office. That's the problem. Present polling and electoral maths suggests that an election would return pretty much the same complexion of parliament. Hung or with a miserable working majority. Where we are now though is proof once again I'm afraid of the fact that stubborn mediocrity is the most toxic of combinations.

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1 hour ago, wortley said:

No deal has been ruled out. 

Whereas  the EU has not backed itself into a corner as regards a no deal situation just the UK .

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4 minutes ago, Chef said:

Whereas  the EU has not backed itself into a corner as regards a no deal situation just the UK . 

The fact of the matter is it will hurt them far less. "I'll shoot myself in the foot" has never been much of a threat, unless you subscribe to the madman theory.

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8 minutes ago, penguin said:

The fact of the matter is it will hurt them far less. "I'll shoot myself in the foot" has never been much of a threat, unless you subscribe to the madman theory.

Cutting off the branch of the tree that you happen to be sitting on comes to mind .

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Cutting off the branch of the tree that you happen to be sitting on comes to mind .

Especially if you are a stranded Moggy.......

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4 hours ago, Gareth said:

 Some voices in the EU have suggested there will not be an approval for a third extension. 

I would have thought that really depends on what the state of play is in October. If those in charge of the government still have no workable plan then no extensions so if parliament won't countenance no deal revoke A50 the only course the government can take. If however there is a plan for a general  election or a new referendum on possible courses of action then I would have thought it unlikely that any request for a delay would be refused.

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Well, the problem we have is that the current parliament will not countenance no deal, will not countenance a deal, will not countenance revoking article 50, and will not countenance a second referendum.  All of those options have been put to the vote and have been defeated.  Several times.  Which means that there is nothing that this parliament will countenance.  In the event of nothing being positively countenanced, leaving without a deal remains the default legal position.  The only way I can see that impasse changing is to change parliament.  If parliament therefore also refuses to countenance a general election then no deal remains a distinct possibility.  And the only circumstances under which I can see a majority in parliament for a general election is under a new Tory leader.  I agree that a general election would probably "reset" the EU's attitude.  But barring that, it is clear that Macron has had enough (he is why the extension was only until end October and not longer), and it was I think the Dutch PM that is on record as saying that "by 31 October the expectation is that the UK will either agree a deal, leave with no deal, or cancel Brexit".   In terms of PR, I think the EU can claim the moral high ground in agreeing to two extensions, and that no criticism of them can really be levelled in declining a third (barring a fundamental change in circumstances).  So unless May either gets a deal agreed or stands down (leading to a new Tory leader and then to a general election), then the "no deal" outcome, however much parliament says it doesn't want it, remains a very real possibility.

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I don't think there is anything to suggest that a general election would produce a significantly different result from the existing situation so what would that achieve?

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