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Gareth

General Discussions on Brexit

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50 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Well, the problem we have is that the current parliament will not countenance no deal, will not countenance a deal, will not countenance revoking article 50, and will not countenance a second referendum.  All of those options have been put to the vote and have been defeated.  Several times.  Which means that there is nothing that this parliament will countenance.  In the event of nothing being positively countenanced, leaving without a deal remains the default legal position.  The only way I can see that impasse changing is to change parliament.  If parliament therefore also refuses to countenance a general election then no deal remains a distinct possibility.  And the only circumstances under which I can see a majority in parliament for a general election is under a new Tory leader.  I agree that a general election would probably "reset" the EU's attitude.  But barring that, it is clear that Macron has had enough (he is why the extension was only until end October and not longer), and it was I think the Dutch PM that is on record as saying that "by 31 October the expectation is that the UK will either agree a deal, leave with no deal, or cancel Brexit".   In terms of PR, I think the EU can claim the moral high ground in agreeing to two extensions, and that no criticism of them can really be levelled in declining a third (barring a fundamental change in circumstances).  So unless May either gets a deal agreed or stands down (leading to a new Tory leader and then to a general election), then the "no deal" outcome, however much parliament says it doesn't want it, remains a very real possibility.

To be fair I don't think anyone has actually attempted to actually find out what MPs might pass. In the so called indicative votes in parliament all the parties whipped their MPs for the majority of the votes so not indicative of MPs feelings at all.

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12 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

I don't think there is anything to suggest that a general election would produce a significantly different result from the existing situation so what would that achieve?

Agreed - in terms of party representation at any rate.  Possibly a different group of people, with different views on Brexit.  But Brexit is clearly not a party political issue, so irrespective of party profiles, a general election may change the attitides to Brexit within parliament.  But if it doesn’t, we come back to the principle point, that a no deal departure on the new exit date remains a significant possibility.

(Was not intending to take this thread in a political direction - just correcting a misunderstanding that no deal is off the table - it is not, and unless parliament (this one or another one) agrees something else, it will ultimately be what happens).


 

 
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So not leaving without a deal is another backstop ( on the UK side of things only ) .

Edited by Chef

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So, rather than letting them all go off on a nice two-week Easter break, why haven't we confiscated their phones and locked the entire useless bunch in the house of commons with a 24-hour supply of baked beans, prunes and water and one chemical toilet. That should focus their attention on finding a workable solution. Ed

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On 12/04/2019 at 22:24, cvabishop said:

I don't think there is anything to suggest that a general election would produce a significantly different result from the existing situation so what would that achieve?

I'm not so sure. There's a very real chance of UKIP, or the new lot, getting a handful of MPs in any General Election - this could make them key coalition partners and they wouldn't have the same concerns about a border in Ireland as the DUP do, so who knows where that would end up?

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32 minutes ago, VikingVoyager said:

I'm not so sure. There's a very real chance of UKIP, or the new lot, getting a handful of MPs in any General Election - this could make them key coalition partners and they wouldn't have the same concerns about a border in Ireland as the DUP do, so who knows where that would end up?

Ukip support although significant is far too evenly spread across constituency's. Look at 2015 results nearly 3.9m votes and 1 MP. Tories three times as many votes 331MPs. They don't stand a chance.

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10 minutes ago, G4rth said:

Ukip support although significant is far too evenly spread across constituency's. Look at 2015 results nearly 3.9m votes and 1 MP. Tories three times as many votes 331MPs. They don't stand a chance.

 

I wish you were right. However, I think that there a number of constituencies where the sitting MP has a fairly slender majority and there's a lot of angry people out there. It's easy to imagine a Conservative or Labour MP in a working class area losing support to UKIP while maybe also losing out to the pro Remain parties.  They would only need 5 - 10 MPs to potentially have influence

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8 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

Of course we are assuming that anyone is going to bother voting...

And that we're going to have a general election.

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1 hour ago, G4rth said:

And that we're going to have a general election.

Compulsory voting is the way to go:)

Edited by hf_uk

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It’s precisely because the outcome would be so unpredictable that parliament will not have the confidence to trigger an early general election.  But anyway, let’s not stray into party politics here.  The point is that, like every other possibility, parliament is unlikely to countenance an election. Which is one more reason why a no-deal exit is still very much a possibility by default.

It will be interesting to see what sort of “revelations” in her thinking Theresa May returns from her holidays with this year.....

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