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BobCrox

Brexit effect on BF

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8 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I suppose so, but a low risk. However, the government might prefer people stay here this summer to spend their money in the country rather than give it to other nations. Ed. 

I'm sure that would be the government position. Not much joy there for BF though.

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4 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I suppose so, but a low risk. However, the government might prefer people stay here this summer to spend their money in the country rather than give it to other nations. Ed. 

As someone with lots of travel plans and other events going on between now and October, I'm very happy with the latest news. I'd certainly hope to pick up an offer in September and make a weekend trip to the foire aux vins.

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This year we have booked through Holiday France Direct, which as you know is part of BF..The property we have booked is usually very busy but this year, so far has just 2 bookings. So I did a very unscientific survey and spot checked a number of properties in popular areas. The result was pretty much the same. Sparse bookings with many more expensive ones already offering attractive discounts to entice you to book. A lot of the British owned properties also offering payment in Sterling not Euros, which must help. 

   The problem for operators such as BF is knowing the unknown. Brexit is almost quantifiable, compared to the loss of interest in holidaying in France by many British. It doesnt have the same appeal it used to (perceived as expensive). Bulgaria is now the cheapest place in Europe apparently with guaranteed sun, and packages are reasonable. France is neither. After last years belting, and unusual summer, I wonder how many people are staying at home this summer..

  Bf`s business is and always has been aimed at the holiday traveller market and that is their achilles heel. France has slipped out of fashion (at this time) Brexit is merely the coup de grace. As always its the French business people who will lose out and I feel for them. After all we seem to share the same opinion of Macron..Bon Chance

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59 minutes ago, The Ferry Man said:

What does this all mean for the "No-deal Brexit" ferry crossings? Since nothing is likely to happen soon, there is less need for them any time soon.

Well, I can't imagine they will roll back the amended timetable so they'll continue with weak loadings. The question then, I assume, is: are they economically viable with bookings down overall? They might not be losing money on them but the extra wear and tear might cost BF in the longer term. Ed. 

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24 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

Well, I can't imagine they will roll back the amended timetable so they'll continue with weak loadings. The question then, I assume, is: are they economically viable with bookings down overall? They might not be losing money on them but the extra wear and tear might cost BF in the longer term. Ed. 

See that was my thoughts - lower bookings combined with extra crossings don't sound good.

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Historically a late Easter always effects bookings as school holidays are very mixed, for many the school "Easter Break" runs from March 29th - April 15th followed by just a long weekend at Easter, ergo less Easter holiday bookings...

 

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5 hours ago, Cabin-boy said:

if a deal is ratified and then the transition period (where nothing reality changes for a couple of years) kicks in.

The transition period has an already fixed end date. By having extensions before leaving we are currently reducing the time available for any trade discussions although Mr Fox has told us that it will be the easiest trade deal ever done. So perhaps some good news for BF after all.

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3 hours ago, G4rth said:

The transition period has an already fixed end date. By having extensions before leaving we are currently reducing the time available for any trade discussions although Mr Fox has told us that it will be the easiest trade deal ever done. So perhaps some good news for BF after all.

OK, so that takes us through to 31 Dec 2020 if I remember correctly. That covers the current BF timetables and the new ones that will come out in July which should be enough for most people to get organised and sort out their documents. Ed. 

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3 hours ago, G4rth said:

The transition period has an already fixed end date. By having extensions before leaving we are currently reducing the time available for any trade discussions although Mr Fox has told us that it will be the easiest trade deal ever done. So perhaps some good news for BF after all.

Nothing has changed. Not really. Only the date. Yes the newspapers are wheeling out political 'experts' and MPs and lawyers who are in various stages of fury. Some of these lunatics genuinely believe there will be a general election, I can't see even the most turkey-like Tory voting for that particular Christmas. But the parliamentary maths is still the same and will not alter. Long term this situation will not be good for any carrier and BF might be forgiven for seeing the extra taxpayers money as some form of compensation - though I wouldn't be at all surprised if behind the scenes they were lobbying for some discretion in how many of these ludicrously low carrying voyages they actually have to make. 

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2 minutes ago, Millsy said:

 I wouldn't be at all surprised if behind the scenes they were lobbying for some discretion in how many of these ludicrously low carrying voyages they actually have to make. 

Well, they will have to make all of those onto which they have moved existing passengers and taken new bookings. Any that have not yet been reallocated could potentially be scrapped, I suppose, but it depends if there was such a clause in the original document. Ed 

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52 minutes ago, Millsy said:

 I wouldn't be at all surprised if behind the scenes they were lobbying for some discretion in how many of these ludicrously low carrying voyages they actually have to make. 

With the government throwing money about in desperation hopefully BF will have done their homework and negotiated a deal that will enable them to run crossings empty and still make a good profit.

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So what happens if the departure date comes around  again and there is no deal , another ferry contract ?

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3 minutes ago, G4rth said:

If considered relevant, I'm beginning to lose the will to live over what is and what isn't.

Regarding this thread, if it’s related to Brittany Ferries then it is relevant. 😉

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29 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Regarding this thread, if it’s related to Brittany Ferries then it is relevant. 😉

One man's relevance is another man's irrelevance. That's the problem.🤔

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2 hours ago, G4rth said:

One man's relevance is another man's irrelevance. That's the problem.🤔

It's not a problem... If there are those commenting who are of the belief that a forum designed and constructed for ferry enthusiasts is irrelevant then they have no place here.

In fact I'll go as far to say that there are many members who will only engage with others on the condition of central government & the referendum, no doubt attracted to the forums ease in allowing such posts... No other non political forum created for transport or recreation enthusiasts has the subject discussed to such a high profile.

Every hint of ferry travel negativity reported is instantly an excuse for it to be turned into a Brexit debate.

There are thousands of sites both in the U.K and Europe dedicated to more mainstream Brexit topics wherein a more informed and knowledgeable discussion can and does invariably take place.

So... does anyone want to bother discussing the topic?

Holiday bookings are down over Easter, fine. Everyone has ignored the simple fact that no one, least of all the schools, have much time off over the period... 4 days max, most are already back at their desks having returned yesterday from having a fortnight at home.

Many have enjoyed trips & holidays but of course BF won't count those even though they are relevant as this year they have replaced the traditional Easter getaways.

If BF want to use this as some form of Brexit bashing to suit their agenda, again that's fine too - the same can be said for the summer, holiday bookings are down but bookings for crossings aren't. Anyone can check the figures, the DFT publish them quarterly.

BF can cry all they want but for me they lost the argument the day they signed on the dotted line in Flensburg and with Stena. You simply can't publicly moan about the state of your business then invest over half a billion euros to increase capacities on 50% of your UK routes.

The financial hit to French ferry travel has actually come from a company who's routes south aren't effected by any decision the U.K makes. Irish Ferries, how many crossings to Roscoff have they cancelled?

 

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1 hour ago, jonno said:

The financial hit to French ferry travel has actually come from a company who's routes south aren't effected by any decision the U.K makes. Irish Ferries, how many crossings to Roscoff have they cancelled?

 

It's a very sharp observation, in stark contrast to BF who are building capacity to avoid freight getting tangled in the UK. To the causal observer it does look like IF are killing the golden goose. Perhaps IF see their future at Cherbourg, but it surely can't be hard to run a marketing campaign citing the uncertainly around the land bridge routes.

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If B/F is struggling for passengers the company might need to look at its pricing structure.

My neighbour is taking car, Caravan and partner to France in May.  B/F was quoting him £420 return without cabins on Plymouth/Roscoff daytime crossings - so I offered him a 10% Friends and Family code to bring the price down to £378.  He smiled and showed me that the Caravan Club was offering him the same crossings on Armorique on the same dates for £280.  If an agent can sell those tickets for £280 ( and presumably show a profit on the deal ) then B/F own prices are too dear . 

Edited by wortley

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23 minutes ago, penguin said:

It's a very sharp observation, in stark contrast to BF who are building capacity to avoid freight getting tangled in the UK. To the causal observer it does look like IF are killing the golden goose. Perhaps IF see their future at Cherbourg, but it surely can't be hard to run a marketing campaign citing the uncertainly around the land bridge routes.

Again though none of the Irish Sea carriers are looking at any issues with the land bridge, just like the channel they are in the process of securing larger ships to transport more goods to the U.K west coast ports and beyond. 

Not one carrier effected by the referendum result has said "let's wait and see" if anything they've gone in completely the opposite direction. Stena have now purchased both Superfasts and will of course have the first three E-Flexers, Irish Ferries will have an even larger stablemate for Ulysses. They are expecting and gearing up for a greater demand for freight and passengers.

The same can be said for DFDS on the eastern channel plus P&O who are building larger RoPax' to partner the Spirits.

BF have increased crossings in the short term but the move to shift Normandie to Le Havre is about route expansion not U.K freight congestion and the introduction of Honfleur and the E-Flexer triplets for Spain is due to the same expectation.

We also have the positive news coming out of Rosyth which hopefully will give Scotland a dedicated European link and another option for us to enjoy.

It's not just the RoPax market either. RoRo's & ConRo's based at Felixstowe, Immingham, Teesport and Tilbury are getting busier with ongoing expansions to deal with larger numbers, Immingham for example is seeing a large amount of goods historically destined for the Dover crossings heading their way.

This is an indication not only of the Brexit effect on BF but the effect on all of the major players in sea borne freight which either transits the U.K or has it's origins there.

 

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15 minutes ago, jonno said:

Again though none of the Irish Sea carriers are looking at any issues with the land bridge, just like the channel they are in the process of securing larger ships to transport more goods to the U.K west coast ports and beyond. 

Not one carrier effected by the referendum result has said "let's wait and see" if anything they've gone in completely the opposite direction. Stena have now purchased both Superfasts and will of course have the first three E-Flexers, Irish Ferries will have an even larger stablemate for Ulysses. They are expecting and gearing up for a greater demand for freight and passengers.

 

Can one conclude that ferry companies are hell bent on expansion into and out of the UK just because they have ordered new ships? I would have thought that conclusion could only reasonably be arrived at if the arrival of newer more efficient ships result in new routes or increased frequency of sailings. It may coinside with the sale of older less efficient ones and less sailings on fewer routes but, as HT would say, only time will tell.

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