Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Gareth

Hypothetical Second Referendum

Recommended Posts

So.....we now have on the table “The Deal”.

Suppose this was put to a second referendum, with three choices on a STV system.  The choices are:

A. Accept the deal

B.  Reject the deal and Leave the EU

C.  Reject the deal and Remain in the EU

The rules are:

1. Rank your order of preference down as far as you want to go.  First choice, second choice (if you want to give one).

2. Voting must be completed by 11pm on Saturday 24 November.

3.  At the first counting, the option with the fewest first-choice votes will be removed.  

4. Any second choice elected by voters whose first choice was the removed option will be transferred to the second choice option.

5.  The second count will decide between the remaining two options, with the transferred votes from the first count now added in.

6.  The option with the larger number of votes (aggregate of first choice and transferred second choice) wins the BFE Second Referendum.

7.  Any member who votes twice will have their votes subsequent to their first submission disregarded.

8.  Result will be announced in exactly 1 week’s time!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right, given what we know so far and that I haven't read all 500 odd pages of the draft deal (but then neither apparently has Mr Corbyn so I don't feel I'm at any real disadvantage) this would be my preference :

1st choice: A

2nd choice: C

Ed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If those are the only choices you're giving us then I suppose it's 

1st choice:  C

2nd choice:  A

3rd choice:  B

Personally I don't think option B would get through parliament and would more likely be replaced with EEA membership but that is not really for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, G4rth said:

If those are the only choices you're giving us

Only because I can't see any other choices being on the ballot paper if we did have one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Gareth said:

Only because I can't see any other choices being on the ballot paper if we did have one.

That's why I said it's not for now. I can see it may become an option at the end of the transition period though if things go pear shaped between now and then.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s hard to see even these choices on the ballot paper of any second referendum actually.  As soon as parliament has kicked it into touch, option A will come off the table.  And if, by some combination of fear, intimidation and magic, parliament does approve the May Plan, then there will be no referendum on it in any case.  That will simply become What Happens.

But the exercise of a mock referendum is fun to go through.  (I can already foresee what the outcome is going to be.....!) 😉

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Gareth said:

 (I can already foresee what the outcome is going to be.....!) 😉

I wouldn't worry too much - according to the papers it's only the metropolitan elite that can afford travel! We're too much of a select audience ;)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gareth said:

It’s hard to see even these choices on the ballot paper of any second referendum actually.  As soon as parliament has kicked it into touch, option A will come off the table.  And if, by some combination of fear, intimidation and magic, parliament does approve the May Plan, then there will be no referendum on it in any case.  That will simply become What Happens.

But the exercise of a mock referendum is fun to go through.  (I can already foresee what the outcome is going to be.....!) 😉

With an electorate of 14 the government will ignore the BFE voting at their peril.😂

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We know what Corbyn’s wish is for Brexit - it’s been consistent throughout his multiple decades of policital campaigning.  His problem now is he can’t say it, because he is at odds with most of his party and he knows that if he says what he really thinks his voters will desert him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1st choice B

2nd choice A

I'm beginning to think we should nave done B at the start and negotiate deals from outside, with the EU knowing that good deals are good for both sides, at the moment they are making things difficult knowing that our side will give way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1: A

2: B

Reasoning?

The real guts of negotiation won't begin until after March 2019 during the transition period. Barnier has also consistently stated publicly that any extension to this will be a short term measure.

No 2 isn't really realistic as it won't get through Parliament although the EU may insist on pulling the plug anyway, an outcome many seem to have forgotten. We can't  U-turn and remain on the same terms, Article 49 will be triggered which will have major consequences especially as it's likely that Weber will win the EU election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's starting to look as if May's troubles with her deal are not going to start with getting it through parliament - it's looking like the EU isn't going to approve it either.  Spain being opportunistic for a start.

Have to say, I don't quite understand this business of "no deal will not get through parliament".  If there is no deal approved, then no deal is just what happens by default, surely?  Unless parliament is able to vote to approve some other course of action that is (a) accepted by the EU and (b) allowed by the legislation surrounding the process of leaving, then leaving without a deal will just become the thing that happens.  It won't need a parliamentary vote.

What parliament's options are for instigating "some other course of action" that is accepted by the EU and allowed by the Article 50 legislation I am not sure.  We're well into uncharted territory.  What are the possibilities?  Extend or revoke Article 50?  Can't think of anything else.  We have no idea whether revocation is legally possible.  Extension probably is, subject to EU agreement, and it's hard to see the EU not agreeing to that.  But it's equally hard to see May going down either of those routes.  It's looking less and less like the Tory party is going to remove May.  So parliament's first order of business, if it wants to pursue this "some other course of action", will probably have to be to dissolve itself and remove the government.  That will all take time, and before you know it March 2019 will be here. 

Anyway....this is probably a post for the other thread.  I'll move all the non-mock referendum-related posts across to there when the mock referendum is done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, G4rth said:

It's the will of the people then! ☠️

And now the electoral role is expanding, mid-election!  All most irregular! :D

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Gareth said:

And now the electoral role is expanding, mid-election!  All most irregular! :D

Moved house and have only just got on to the electoral role. I'm more than happy registering to vote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...