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Nick Hyde

UK-CI pax ferry figures

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I wonder if Condor's UK-CI pax figures for 2019 will show any improvement on 2018 and the downward trend dating from 2015, from when Libby was introduced?

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Well, Nick, I am glad to see you are asking this question on the main forum as well as the PM you sent me with it earlier.  I wondered why you PM’d me that rather than put it out in the open here.  I’ll give my answer here.  Be a case of waiting to find out.  To be honest there are a variety of reasons and not just Libby.  From 2012 to 2016 is the biggest drop - that would be the question to ask, why the figures have dropped since 2012, before Libby was even considered.  The drop since she has appeared on the scene is pretty minor!

Edited by Khaines

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More like from 2006 to 2014 figures were relatively stable, even increasing in 2013. Since 2015 they've plummeted southwards and our tourism product in Guernsey has been the worse for it.

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So what was the big drop from 2012 all about then that is a HUGE plummet - since 2015 no different to 2007-2008, yet you don’t mention that.  The big drop I mention is nothing to do with Libby, so what explanation does it have.  I am not interested in the drop since Libby, the drop from 2012 is much more concerning.  It is the unreliability of the cats around that time and is the reason WHY they were replaced.

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Incrementally the drop from 2015 through 2016 is the biggest, 47,000 in one year?

Surely it's availability? Before the Libby there were multiple day sailings from the U.K. aboard an HSC.

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Nick, are the numbers arriving by air increasing to off set the decline in passengers coming to you by sea?

 My children, for instance, have flown recently from UK to Brest, Nantes and La Rochelle .  They would never think to use Brittany Ferries and I am sure they would never use Condor either. They fly - that's what younger people do. A change of ship on the Channel Islands service wouldn't tempt them back. Perhaps your older visitors who came by sea are dying out, and the younger generation are travelling differently ?  What do you think? 

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2 hours ago, Khaines said:

Well, Nick, I am glad to see you are asking this question on the main forum as well as the PM you sent me with it earlier.  I wondered why you PM’d me that rather than put it out in the open here.  I’ll give my answer here.  Be a case of waiting to find out.  To be honest there are a variety of reasons and not just Libby.  From 2012 to 2016 is the biggest drop - that would be the question to ask, why the figures have dropped since 2012, before Libby was even considered.  The drop since she has appeared on the scene is pretty minor!

Surely it's where the figures are now, at an all time low that is the area of major concern. Air travel figures meanwhile are stable.

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35 minutes ago, wortley said:

Nick, are the numbers arriving by air increasing to off set the decline in passengers coming to you by sea?

 My children, for instance, have flown recently from UK to Brest, Nantes and La Rochelle .  They would never think to use Brittany Ferries and I am sure they would never use Condor either. They fly - that's what younger people do. A change of ship on the Channel Islands service wouldn't tempt them back. Perhaps your older visitors who came by sea are dying out, and the younger generation are travelling differently ?  What do you think? 

Air travel figures are stable. As I see it reasons for decline...loss of Weymouth day trip market, reduction in rotations per day, bad publicity and bad experiences when Libby had her problems, decline in tourism for C2, DE and take your own car markets and lastly greater popularity of air travel by new generation of youngsters and adults.

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A lot of younger people now do not drive and, as Wortley says, it would not occur to them to take a ferry with low cost flights available anyway. I rather suspect that only older people now take their cars abroad on holiday and those that do prefer to use the Tunnel despite the potential additional driving distances.

As far as the Channel Isles are concerned, they were once considered to be an exotic holiday destination but have not been seen as such for many years now. For people visiting on a short break or business travellers, taking a flight is the obvious option really otherwise you simply spedt too much time on a probably uncomfortable boat.

We may be ferry enthusiasts on here but the reality is that the majority of people dislike the idea of travelling by ship on principle. ( unless maybe it is a cruise). Sad but true.

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8 hours ago, cvabishop said:

A lot of younger people now do not drive and, as Wortley says, it would not occur to them to take a ferry with low cost flights available anyway. I rather suspect that only older people now take their cars abroad on holiday and those that do prefer to use the Tunnel despite the potential additional driving distances.

As far as the Channel Isles are concerned, they were once considered to be an exotic holiday destination but have not been seen as such for many years now. For people visiting on a short break or business travellers, taking a flight is the obvious option really otherwise you simply spedt too much time on a probably uncomfortable boat.

We may be ferry enthusiasts on here but the reality is that the majority of people dislike the idea of travelling by ship on principle. ( unless maybe it is a cruise). Sad but true.

But there can be a better future and getting rid of the obvious problem would be the first step. IOM Steam Packet's traffic figures are far healthier and the Isle of Man has less tourists than we do. Britrany Ferries involvement will hopefully make a difference in the long term. Condor gets a mention in BFs Voyage magazine - the first help we are getting in turning things around.

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Nick, my nearest airport is Exeter.     I can fly from there with Flybe to Jersey in June for £70 return. The flight wil take 45 minutes . 

Or I can take a train from Exeter to Poole taking over four hours, with two changes. Then an overnight stay in a hotel and six hours on tne morning service on the new ship that you hope will be introduced. 

Guess which ! 

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Voyage article in more detail...Business as usual for now as they say, but hopefully in the longer term....change.

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2 minutes ago, wortley said:

Nick, my nearest airport is Exeter.     I can fly from there with Flybe to Jersey in June for £70 return. The flight wil take 45 minutes . 

Or I can take a train from Exeter to Poole taking over four hours, with two changes. Then an overnight stay in a hotel and six hours on tne morning service on the new ship that you hope will be introduced. 

Guess which ! 

Yep I can definitely see the attraction of flying if living in Exeter. When I took the BF ferry from Plymouth to Santander a couple of years back I got to the UK from Guernsey by flying to Exeter first and then down by train. I do however use Condor a lot to the UK when I can.

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Posted (edited)

Nick, you just seem obsessed with the Libby issue.  There are loads of reasons why these things are happening but it seems you just want to think it is Libby    Did you pm anyone else with that graph or just me, I waited to see if it was posted here before I answered.   I do apologise for a bit of a rant, but at the end of the day there are many issues to do with the downturn.  Yes, Libby has her part to play, but there are a lot of other factors to take into consideration.  She is a lot more reliable nowadays as has been pointed out many times, it is Rapide that has been unreliable of late.  And Clipper has her issues as well.  People will only see and hear what they want to see and hear on this issue.  I think people need to look at the wider issue and not concentrate on one particular one they feel is to blame.  

 

 

 

Edited by Khaines
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Brigette you can't argue with the fact that figures dropped after Libby came in, was in the bad publicity that she got, was it false expectations that were put on her and when she didn't run the service expected people reacted.  Perhaps if Condor had started with a more reasonable timetable for her, as they have now, people would have been happier with her and therefore less bad publicity.

Slightly off topic, we keep hearing how the youth want to save the World but then we say how they jump on planes to fly every where.

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41 minutes ago, Khaines said:

Nick, you just seem obsessed with the Libby issue.  There are loads of reasons why these things are happening but it seems you just want to think it is Libby    Did you pm anyone else with that graph or just me, I waited to see if it was posted here before I answered.   I do apologise for a bit of a rant, but at the end of the day there are many issues to do with the downturn.  Yes, Libby has her part to play, but there are a lot of other factors to take into consideration.  She is a lot more reliable nowadays as has been pointed out many times, it is Rapide that has been unreliable of late.  And Clipper has her issues as well.  People will only see and hear what they want to see and hear on this issue.  I think people need to look at the wider issue and not concentrate on one particular one they feel is to blame.  

 

 

 

Libby, the move to Poole and reduction to one sailing a day have all not helped.

Fact is Libby was sold as an improvement on the Incats weather performance wise and she clearly is not. Infact in addition to wave height related cancellations she also gets cancelled in certain wind conditions at island harbours when Rapide does not.

Granted things have got better with Libby and I actually quite like her onboard layout. However, I understand the new Fred Olsen Austal craft are also different in design to Libby. I wonder why?

 

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Slightly off topic, we keep hearing how the youth want to save the World but then we say how they jump on planes to fly every where.

Well of course they want to save the world but giving up their fortnight in the sun is taking things a bit too far...

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Tweaked to make it a bit clearer - correlation isn't always causation but I'd like to see evidence to the contrary in this case.

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Flights are so cheap.

 I mentioned £70 return from Exeter to Jersey with Flybe, but with EasyJet from any of their ring of airports around London it's only £35 return to Jersey. It takes an hour.

Why would any of the ten million people in that area want to trundle down to Poole on a train and wait for a ferry ?  

 

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15 minutes ago, hhvferry said:

Tweaked to make it a bit clearer - correlation isn't always causation but I'd like to see evidence to the contrary in this case.

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Good analysis. Spot on. I really hope the year end 2019 pax figures at least flat line or go up. We have got to think how low can these pax figures go before a high capacity pax service becomes unviable? There must be a point and there is no automatic right for us to be "blessed" with a daily pax service. Also looking to 20 years time will self drive cars and less car ownership mean less people rsking cars by ferry? Will that be the real decider as to whether ferry services such as these have a future?

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1 hour ago, hhvferry said:

Tweaked to make it a bit clearer - correlation isn't always causation but I'd like to see evidence to the contrary in this case.

image.jpeg.ddd5b71e698e7e8bee4e069df894ca20.jpeg

What's really needed is a monthly break down for those 2 years, were numbers steady until Libby started? Did they drop right away or after the bad publicity started and obviously the reduction of sailings must have had an effect.  What about the figures from France have they stayed steady or have they dropped as well?

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3 hours ago, Solo said:

 

Slightly off topic, we keep hearing how the youth want to save the World but then we say how they jump on planes to fly every where.

You'll be complaining their rock music is too loud next!

 

Do we actually think ferry travel is any better for the environment than flying? Whilst it's not had the same media attention, I can't imagine it's any better, especially not the fast cats in question.

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1 hour ago, Solo said:

What's really needed is a monthly break down for those 2 years, were numbers steady until Libby started? Did they drop right away or after the bad publicity started and obviously the reduction of sailings must have had an effect.  What about the figures from France have they stayed steady or have they dropped as well?

These passenger movements stats would suggest St Malo to Guernsey is stable. Very different market though. A large chunk is locals going to France for motoring holidays plus no air competition as there are NO flights from the islands to Normany, Brittany or Paris.

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By the way Portsmouth is lower for Sep 19 as Clipper was out of service for some of that month.

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23 minutes ago, Nick Hyde said:

By the way Portsmouth is lower for Sep 19 as Clipper was out of service for some of that month.

And Poole has a rise that month probably because of this.

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