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Please remember - this thread can get a bit heated at times... try to keep politics out of it, and be respectful to the views of others.

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We've a young crowd in here today!

It will be pasta and rice next, how have they got through the stockpiles from March?

Thanks everyone! 5 hours in theatre, all done. They misrouted the catheter and can't get a new one in. Pray I manage to pee before 10pm or the stick a pronged tube through my stomach.

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2 hours ago, colin said:

We are still missing something .... 

Or they are, Cornwall has 15 according to this but the head of the hospital trust is on the radio every Friday and I'm sure last week they had 6 in the hospital.  Bristol according to this has as many as whole regions.

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Knitting this statistical treacle is all very well but there are too many variables to reach any conclusion - it will take years to sort things out.

Stats nave not helped us at all it seems to me as rhe real trouble with all this started when every action was justified by some sort of data.

Policy making has to be more than that - though I don't expect the Buffoon we have in No 10 to understand that, or his associates for that matter.  It's now time for everyone to stand back and ask some serious questions about quality of life and human rights and what is quickly becoming a quasi-police state.  Like? Well for example why my half hour visits socially distanced visits to dad have been stopped again - dictat of Gloucestershire County Council - when  every tom dick or harry of a tradesman seems to be allowed in without let or hindrance and the staff, who wear their work clothes outside, once off the premises can do - it seems - what they damn well like. 

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20 hours ago, Millsy said:

Knitting this statistical treacle is all very well but there are too many variables to reach any conclusion - it will take years to sort things out.

Stats nave not helped us at all it seems to me as rhe real trouble with all this started when every action was justified by some sort of data.

I couldn't agree less (though Buffoon is a completely inadequate description)!

Regarding the treacle I've waded through personally on this thread, there is one very obvious conclusion - there is something fishy with the SW NOIDS data.

More widely, we absolutely should be making decisions based on hard data, it's not acceptable to just throw your hands in the air and say it's just not black and white enough so it should be ignored.  To say that statistics have not helped at all is preposterous.  

I'd caveat the above by saying that we need to accept that the evidence evolves and that policy makers needs to recognise this and, just as importantly the impact of human nature. 

In your specific example, it sounds like two policies (that for visitors and trades) are at odds with each other.  If non-essential external contractors on site are getting closer access to patients than their families, then something has gone wrong.  Statistics are unlikely to be to blame.

Edited by VikingVoyager
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Our department in France, Maine-et-Loire, is the only one so far in the Pays de la Loire region to have  9pm-6am curfew imposed. I spent a few monutes this morning reading through and trying to work out what is and is not allowed to stay open. 

Stupidly it would seem that my wife and second daughter who go to the same private swimming pool for lessons (aquagym and young-swimmers respectively) are being treated differently. My daughter can continue her lessons (we are awaiting confirmation but that's my interpretation) but my wife can no longer do hers. However, given where we live, if she were to drive 10kms further along the Loire and cross over to the other side she'd be in Loire Atlantique and could do whatever she wanted in a similar club there.

My problem is that I now no longer have control of the TV remote on Thurdsday evenings and can't therefore watch whatever cheesy film I wish. I'm thinking of sueing the French government for infringing on my human rights. 

Ed

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President Macron is due to address the nation tomorrow night and the expectation is that he'll have to announce some form of lockdown to try and suppress the spread of the virus. My source within the fire department HQ for our department says that we are looking at the curfew being extended to run from 7pm to 6 am Monday evening to Friday morning. Then there will be a weekend lockdown from 7pm Friday to 6am Monday. It's possible that non-essential shops will be forced to close (frankly ludicrous as there is no evidence of mass contamination in shops) but the logic (if you can call it that) is to keep everyone at home as much as possible (after saying for the last few weeks that we should avoid congregating indoors whenever feasible). Schools seem likely to reopen on Monday as planned but there may be regional variations. Primary schools will need to stay open so that parents can still go to work. 

President Macron is likely to give us the bad news tomorrow and let PM Jean Castex flesh out the details on Thursday. I can see the rules kicking in on Friday evening even though some people will be heading back from the half-term holidays this weekend.

If Mr Macron were to announce that he's figuratively throwing Mr Castex under a bus I think a lot of people would be very pleased. He is extremely unpopular and has failed miserably to manage a foreseeable situation. 

Ed

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33 minutes ago, Rattler43 said:

As a matter of interest @jonno why is tetanus notifiable? If you have it you can't pass it on can you?

When the wife comes home I'll ask her, she's the medical boffin.

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36 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

If you can, Normandie is a death trap. Ed 

Well, it does live in dust Ed, just don't go cutting yourself on any of those sharp, rusty, pointy bits before heading back to your cabin.

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21 minutes ago, jonno said:

When the wife comes home I'll ask her, she's the medical boffin.

Apparently it's due to everyone in the U.K being vaccinated against it as a matter of course, like we are for the other bacterial nasty TB. She said that Tetanus boosters should be given every 10 years.

It's rife in countries with poor sanitation and can be passed through saliva plus throat & nasal droplets even in small cuts.

She even wonders why herself as it can't be passed through normal human interaction, maybe a throw back to times past?

Note that Small Pox is still there too although influenza has been removed.

Another point she made was that the WHO made Covid notifiable simply to get countries to take notice and to activate treatment protocols in third world countries.

Maybe this is another reason why we still have Tetanus on the list.

All of the gram negative Clostridiums are nasty, although C.Diff isn't on the list.

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Well, lockdown in France from Friday. Less totally strict than the spring, schools stay open, government services and offices, post offices etc. Remote working as much as possible, but employers can authorise employees to travel to work. Old folks homes can still receive visitors, funerals can continue ....

Travel restrictions to be defined tomorrow. European (Schengen) borders stay open. Lockdown till at least 1st December, with carrot of some loosening after two weeks if the figures go the right way.

Macron went through the options, explained why this action required, and almost apologised for what has not been done as well as it might have been. Hopeful that the lessons learned will now help and assured that plenty of stocks of masks etc and medical stuff was fine, but that the time taken to train nurses or doctors meant no magic wand on that front, and most countries affected so no recourse to outside help.

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Universities going 100% remote. Tolerance this weekend for returning from holidays, going to fetch kids, family or whatever. Restaurants and bars closed. Essential shops open - more detail on this tomorrow. No public gatherings. Back to our signed forms when we go out for food shopping, medical appointments etc.

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Colin has beaten me to posting details of the new restrictions. The only thing Macron didn't mention is that he's grown a pair of balls in the last 8 months. Probably because he hasn't and is still slavishly following the advice of scientists rather than economists. Ed. 

Edited by Cabin-boy
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Both here and in France and elsewhere it is by no means clear just what is fuelling this explosion in infections? The shops and other establishments I visit seem to have precautions under good control so where is the person to person contact ocurring to spread the virus so much?  Something is causing this second wave but it is not at all clear just what.

In Scotland the police refer to shutting down hundreds of house parties, many of which appear to have been organised by people deliberately booking Airnb accommodation for the purpose. Is this happening elsewhere?

Down here in SW Surrey our local authority is below the national average for infections but the the area of it we actually live in borders two authorities with well under half the national average. But then places like Mid Sussex with their high proportion of elderly residents are not noted for holding raves and most are probably in bed by 10pm. And when they do venture out they are very, very careful.

It is becoming really difficult to assess your local risk profile as there is no very local data to draw upon.

 

 

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Will the truck arrive from UK on Monday to pick up the boat I just sold?

Will I be able to collect my DELF B1 certificate from the Alliance Française in St Malo who have been closed during the school holidays? Everything else ready for citizenship application ...

Will there be any bog roll at Super U tomorrow? So long as they don't run out of Ricard I will manage somehow.

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1 minute ago, cvabishop said:

Both here and in France and elsewhere it is by no means clear just what is fuelling this explosion in infections? The shops and other establishments I visit seem to have precautions under good control so where is the person to person contact ocurring to spread the virus so much?  Something is causing this second wave but it is not at all clear just what.

In Scotland the police refer to shutting down hundreds of house parties, many of which appear to have been organised by people deliberately booking Airnb accommodation for the purpose. Is this happening elsewhere?

Down here in SW Surrey our local authority is below the national average for infections but the the area of it we actually live in borders two authorities with well under half the national average. But then places like Mid Sussex with their high proportion of elderly residents are not noted for holding raves and most are probably in bed by 10pm. And when they do venture out they are very, very careful.

It is becoming really difficult to assess your local risk profile as there is no very local data to draw upon.

 

 

Here in our village it was one couple in there 50s coming from Paris to see daughter and grand children 10 days ago. he felt ill on the Sunday, tested back home on Monday, positive and his wife too. Daughter and 9 year old positive Thursday. But .... daughter runs a market stall in Dinard and still went Saturday, Tuesday ... Still running around the village maskless, she and kids mixing with friends and family. 5 more positives this week. What a surprise!

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Apparently there have been fairly lengthy queues of traffic leaving Paris this evening as the older, retired population decamp to their seaside holiday homes before it's too late and not to get caught out again like last time. Ed 

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Back to my comments about our village. I doubt that any of the twits involved have been using the Covid App. Very French of course, and in cases like this, very silly.

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4 minutes ago, colin said:

Back to my comments about our village. I doubt that any of the twits involved have been using the Covid App. Very French of course, and in cases like this, very silly.

I had an animated discussion with my doctors' class last night about this type of situation. My argument was that as you can't rely on other people not contaminating (as they may be asymptomatic) you you should be held responsible if you catch the virus through your own negligence when in contact with other people (outside of your household obviously and those in care homes who are dependent on help etc). I suggested that the imposition of a fine if you test positive would be a very effective technique and people wouldn't make the same mistake twice. Ed 

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15 hours ago, cvabishop said:

Both here and in France and elsewhere it is by no means clear just what is fuelling this explosion in infections? The shops and other establishments I visit seem to have precautions under good control so where is the person to person contact ocurring to spread the virus so much?  Something is causing this second wave but it is not at all clear just what.

In Scotland the police refer to shutting down hundreds of house parties, many of which appear to have been organised by people deliberately booking Airnb accommodation for the purpose. Is this happening elsewhere

It is becoming really difficult to assess your local risk profile as there is no very local data to draw upon.

 

 

The ONS have a very handy too which breaks down the UK by LSOA so you can see the infection rate by local area.  It's most handy to see the number of cases plus rate per 100,000.

I'm ooop north near Leeds and it's interesting, albeit not at all surprising, to see how there the highest number of cases in the city almost follow a line from the halls of residence near Clarence Dock through the city centre past the Universities and into Headingley where you find student digs and haunts.  As such I'm giving them a wide berth!

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16 hours ago, cvabishop said:

Down here in SW Surrey our local authority is below the national average for infections

Are there any reasonably priced hotels in the area. When we hit tier three it could be worthwhile coming down for a month or two😏 (Very much tongue in cheek)

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