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Corona virus


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Please remember - this thread can get a bit heated at times... try to keep politics out of it, and be respectful to the views of others.

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We've a young crowd in here today!

It will be pasta and rice next, how have they got through the stockpiles from March?

Neil’s photo reminded me of my own mother, also a Margaret and 88 years young, lives on her own in a retirement flat near Bristol. She hasn’t seen anyone for over a week now so really important point

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The aforementioned PM Jean Castex is currently setting out how he plans to ruin everyone's life for the next few weeks. 

Paperwork will be needed to go to work, come back from work, take your children to school, collect your children from school, go running, walk your dog, blah blah blah!

Children aged 6 and over will also have to wear masks at school.

President Macron's stated aim to bring cases down from 50,000 to 5,000 in four weeks has been poo-pooed by scientists and rumours are circulating that 8 to 12 weeks are more likely. A few people have told me today that they will do what they judge appropriate in order to see their family at Christmas suggesting that some sort of civil disobedience is on the cards which would obviously be very difficult to prevent if seen on a large scale. 

Ed.

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23 hours ago, cvabishop said:

Both here and in France and elsewhere it is by no means clear just what is fuelling this explosion in infections? The shops and other establishments I visit seem to have precautions under good control so where is the person to person contact ocurring to spread the virus so much?  Something is causing this second wave but it is not at all clear just what.

In Scotland the police refer to shutting down hundreds of house parties, many of which appear to have been organised by people deliberately booking Airnb accommodation for the purpose. Is this happening elsewhere?

Down here in SW Surrey our local authority is below the national average for infections but the the area of it we actually live in borders two authorities with well under half the national average. But then places like Mid Sussex with their high proportion of elderly residents are not noted for holding raves and most are probably in bed by 10pm. And when they do venture out they are very, very careful.

It is becoming really difficult to assess your local risk profile as there is no very local data to draw upon.

 

 

Try this Colin

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

There is a searchable post code map.

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A question. 

Lockdown in French translates as 'confinement'. Coming out of lockdown was described as 'deconfinement'. The new situation is being referred to as ' reconfinement'.

So, what will be the correct term for the end of the current situation?  'dereconfinement' or 'redeconfinement'?

Ed

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President Macron tried to scare the French people in his address on Wednesday night by saying that it was a new lockdown or 400,000 deaths. That figure apparently came from a scientific study published in a British medical journal (Nature Reviews Immunology) and conducted by a pair of French specialists from the Pasteur Intitute. However what he failed to mention was both the timescale (as long as it would take to develop around 50% herd immunity, and instead saying 'in a few months') and that the true range of figures suggested was 100,000 to 450,000 (and he chose the upper end of that scale because it suited his agenda). Whether the modelling is correct or not is another question. They estimate that 30,000 deaths (so far) has only prduced 5% immunity and have scaled up the figures. 

Apparently 67% of French people currently believe that the lockdown is necesary. I wonder what that figure would be if he had said 100,000 deaths? Presumably if we use the same method of calculation he did it would be 20%. I was in Angers today and there were certainly a lot more people out and about than I expected. 

Ed

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4 minutes ago, colin said:

The concept of herd immunity for Covid-19 has been widely rejected by the scientific community in light of the evidence of antibody loss and therefore potential reinfection.

That just reinforces the point that President Macron was citing research which does not form part of the national strategy and is therefore misleading. Ed 

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One of my brothers-in-law sometimes works as a volunteer at weekends in a comic book shop in Le Mans owned by a friend. The shop has today started a revolution to remain open despite the new rules. Here's the report from BFM.

https://www.bfmtv.com/people/indigne-par-l-ouverture-des-fnac-ce-gerant-de-librairie-du-mans-refuse-de-fermer-sa-boutique_AN-202010300223.html

Ed

 

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FNAC have announced that their rayons culture will be closed for at least two weeks. Was pressure applied, or is it a gesture of solidarity?

Several instances of lock down rebellion being reported with individual shops and even some mairies saying they will not close, or will issue orders allowing businesses to stay open. Likely to be stamped on quickly.

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11 minutes ago, colin said:

FNAC have announced that their rayons culture will be closed for at least two weeks. Was pressure applied, or is it a gesture of solidarity?

Several instances of lock down rebellion being reported with individual shops and even some mairies saying they will not close, or will issue orders allowing businesses to stay open. Likely to be stamped on quickly.

It seems pressure was applied by private booksellers to eliminate what they judged to be unfair competition. And they have probably shot themselves in the foot. Our local book and toy shops have set up a click and collect system to avoid losing too much business and that's perfectly legal, for now. Those who protested and have now got what they wanted may find their customers go to Amazon, pay 50€ for the Prime option, and never bother coming back. Ed 

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And it looks like the toy section will be next. 

This government has clearly got its priorities wrong. You can't buy a copy of the Koran or a Muhammed costume for Halloween but you can go home from Carrefour with a large kitchen knife if that's what takes your fancy. 

Ed. 

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1 hour ago, Macc2010 said:

Looks like England will be going into a full lockdown as early as next week going by the News websites this morning.

Bojo trying to save Christmas so they say!!!!!

One turkey trying to kill off millions of his brothers and sisters. Ed 

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Several towns and cities have allowed their shops to reopen this morning following decisions taken by the mayors to overrule the government. The prefects are now applying to the courts to overturn these decisions. Shops face fines and legal action if they persist. Hopefully the public will get behind the revolution and put a stop to this government's blatant stupidity. Ed. 

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DON'T DO IT BORIS!

There is an alternative. 'Any Answers' on BBC R4 is asking for suggestions so:

The logic needs to be that as you can't rely on other people not contaminating you (because they may be asymptomatic), you should be held responsible if you catch the virus through your own negligence when in contact with other people (outside of your household obviously and those in care homes who are dependent on help etc). You have been told how to behave and what precautions to take. There is no excuse! Therefore the first step is to make the contact tracing app mandatory for every phone. (Refusal to download and install it automatically means you lose your 4G and WiFi functions and steps you down to 3G). Then there will be a fine if you test positive outside of the situations mentioned above (plus schools or any place where masks are not obligatory but a limited list). It would be a very effective technique and people wouldn't make the same mistake twice. It would force people to think before doing anything. We can equate it to speeding. Don't do this of face a penalty. 

Ed

 

 

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