Jump to content

Corona virus


Message added by Jim,

Please remember - this thread can get a bit heated at times... try to keep politics out of it, and be respectful to the views of others.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We've a young crowd in here today!

It will be pasta and rice next, how have they got through the stockpiles from March?

Thanks everyone! 5 hours in theatre, all done. They misrouted the catheter and can't get a new one in. Pray I manage to pee before 10pm or the stick a pronged tube through my stomach.

Posted Images

52 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

That was my suggestion yesterday. DON'T stop people spreading it as that won't work as seen, but DO stop people catching it. If nobody catches it then nobody will die from it.

That is easily said but whatever measures I take to avoid catching it falls down on the behaviour of other people. The number of idiots not wearing masks show we live in a very uneducated and selfish society.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shipping Forecast said:

However it is clear the virus affects some people very badly and other not / hardly at all. Some will have long term consequences. But as we know more about the virus, we are still using the sledgehammer to crack a nut.

For example, the current best estimate survivability rates from the CDC (an estimate not exact and liable to change) are

0-19 Years      99.997%
20-49 Years   99.98%
50-69 Years   99.5%
70+*                94.6%

*80+ not included

In Italy they are estimating that 100,000 extra people will need transplants within 20 years because of Covid. I cannot imagine the figures being any different here. I only personally know two people who have had it. Neither were hospitalised but both have very serious side effects months later. Permanent kidney damage in one and lung damage in the other.

Deaths and survival are noot the only things to look at.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, colin said:

I appreciate that there are statistics, models and figures. The figure I worry about is the number of deaths. As simple as that. When an alternative is put forward which can reduce the deaths, I think most people will be delighted.

We all want as lower death rate as possible. Without looking at potential alternatives, trying different solutions, using correct data and modelling outcomes there will be no alternatives. And, until this is done we do not know whether an alternative may lead to a higher death rate. There can be an increase in infections but without an increase in deaths.

We also do not want the COVID zero deaths fallacy where very few / no-one dies of COVID, but more die of other conditions instead. There are also a lot of people with medical conditions who are not receiving normal (or any) treatment. Some of those outcomes will not be good either. 

Then there are cause cases like increase in mental health issues that can last a lifetime and lead to suicide, family breakup etc?

Looking at the ONS figures the excess deaths due to COVID currently are a blip on the horizon. Leading cause of death in England and Wales - Dementia and Alzheimer Disease.

A discussion on alternatives needs to be started to make progress.

 

Edited by Admin
Edited at user request
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, BobCrox said:

In Italy they are estimating that 100,000 extra people will need transplants within 20 years because of Covid. I cannot imagine the figures being any different here. I only personally know two people who have had it. Neither were hospitalised but both have very serious side effects months later. Permanent kidney damage in one and lung damage in the other.

Deaths and survival are noot the only things to look at.

I was replying to Colin's specific point on deaths and how it was driving the conversation.

There are many other consequences including after effects of the virus which I have mentioned before. However please let me know who wrote the report with the 100k deaths in 20 years prophecy as with that amazing foresight on a still developing situation, I would like next week's lottery numbers 😄

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, I am far from disingenuous. Every person who dies when they did not need to, is a real tragedy. Politicians, scientists and others live in the world of statistics, and as I said above I would hate to be responsible for making the big choices, but all too often the individual human being gets a little blurred in all this.

I won't argue further, and respect your opinions. My heart goes out for every death, to every family facing loss, to all those suffering and grieving.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BobCrox said:

That is easily said but whatever measures I take to avoid catching it falls down on the behaviour of other people. The number of idiots not wearing masks show we live in a very uneducated and selfish society.

That's true but you need to insist on people wearing a mask around you if you see them flouting the rules. I have to remind my university students three or four times per hour to wear their masks correctly as they seem unable to resist pulling them down below their noses etc.

As to the number of deaths to date, France has seen around 37,000 fatalities directly linked to Covid. There are 36,681 communes in France ranging from small hamlets (55 people) up to the captial, Paris (2.25m people). Given that Paris and the other big cities are going to account for the vast majority of deaths, the impact in most towns and villages is negligable over and above the typical death rate for a given year. Obviously each death is a tragedy but In 2018 France saw 601,000 deaths which is around 1% of the population. If another 20,000 die in the next two months due to COVID that will mean a 10% increase and the total for the year will be 1.1% of the population. To put the figures in context, smoking-related illnesses cause 1 in 8 deaths in France (75,000 in 2015). If we were to see the 400,000 deaths that President Macron suggested on Wednesday then that would indeed be a massive increase.

In other news, France's pillock-in-chief, Jean Castex, has this evening announced that he will force supermarkets to stop selling non-essential items from Tuesday onwards. Cue a massive rush to buy toys and clothes tomorrow instead of a controlled flow of people over the next 4 weeks.

Ed

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

In other news, France's pillock-in-chief, Jean Castex, has this evening announced that he will force supermarkets to stop selling non-essential items from Tuesday onwards. Cue a massive rush to buy toys and clothes tomorrow instead of a controlled flow of people over the next 4 weeks.

Ed

Someone please define non-essential items.  To me If I need now it is essential.  Our integrated washing passed away last week and we have paid for a new one (supply, install & remove old one) and have a delivery date for Friday 6th November but I have a funny feeling it ain't gonna happen. We are both in our 70's and I am disabled and i can't expect Mrs. H to do do washing  by hand.

It's the same with any DIY emegency jobs.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paul W. H said:

Someone please define non-essential items.  To me If I need now it is essential.  Our integrated washing passed away last week and we have paid for a new one (supply, install & remove old one) and have a delivery date for Friday 6th November but I have a funny feeling it ain't gonna happen. We are both in our 70's and I am disabled and i can't expect Mrs. H to do do washing  by hand.

It's the same with any DIY emegency jobs.

As I understand it Paul, it means any product you can buy on the high street, aside from food and medicines, in small independant and chain shops. The primary targets of this strategy are books, music and other cultural items, clothes and shoes, toys, flowers (aside from orders for funerals) and any electronic items except those required for home-working. So the supermarkets will need to cordon off those items in store. How they actually intend to separate printers and cartridges from cameras and tablets or stop people sneaking in, vaulting the barriers and cheating I don't know as you can pay at automatic checkouts. Perhaps they'll programme the tills to refuse certain barcode categories.

Repair services can still operate in towns for breakdowns. You can for example get your TV antenna fixed or replaced. I would therefore be fairly certain that if an installation contract is included in the price of your washing machine then you will be fine. DIY stores are allowed to stay open but I'm not sure about garden centres at this time. Pet stores can open too, as can dry cleaners. Oh and let's not forget tobacco shops to be sure France continues to kill the requisite number of people each year and generate enough tax revenues to allow President Plonker to finish building the swimming pool at his holiday castle.

Ed

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets hope you are right about it still going ahead on Friday Ed.

I fail to see why there is a need to stop sales of certain types of product in supermarkets that are deemed non-essential but you can still purchase fillet steak and champagne.  The poor staff in these outlets will be the ones getting grief from disgruntled shoppers.

Edited by Paul W. H
Clarity
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

@colin 

After having time / headspace to pick up on the thread and reflect on my previous post in reply to you, I must offer you an unreserved apology for my comment earlier about being disingenuous. This is not what I meant towards you; in editing the sentence using cut / paste I left out a section of the sentence on political leadership. A case of doing too much at once, being distracted and not concentrating fully.

Having said that, this is not an acceptable reason for the mistake impugning your post. Less speed, more haste. I have asked the mods to edit the post accordingly removing the offending section.

I hope you can accept this genuine apology.
SF

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Cabin-boy said:

In other news, France's pillock-in-chief, Jean Castex, has this evening announced that he will force supermarkets to stop selling non-essential items from Tuesday onwards. Cue a massive rush to buy toys and clothes tomorrow instead of a controlled flow of people over the next 4 weeks.

Same here Boris has given 4 days notice so I guess our local out of town shopping centre will have been packed yesterday and will be until Wednesday. Around here the weekend activity seems to be to wander round shopping so its busy a the best of times. ( Not my idea of fun but we do have to drive past it as we live close by) If the problem is so urgent why was it not introduced from midnight on Saturday or if Parliament has to approve get them voting on Sunday morning. Mixed messaging again about the urgency of the situation. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, IanN said:

If the problem is so urgent why was it not introduced from midnight on Saturday or if Parliament has to approve get them voting on Sunday morning. Mixed messaging again about the urgency of the situation. 

Precisely! Why not let everyone go out and have a Halloween party, catch the virus and spread it to their friends on Wednesday (4-day incubation seems common for a lot of people) before lockdown? Maybe they were hoping that all the ghoulish masks would help to prevent transmission. 

Ed

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, IanN said:

 If the problem is so urgent why was it not introduced from midnight on Saturday or if Parliament has to approve get them voting on Sunday morning. Mixed messaging again about the urgency of the situation. 

An admirable concept, but it's not just the voting, it's all the required process, documentation and legal text that goes with it. My suspicion is that much of this was already done based around Thursday as the timeline they planned to go to before it got leaked (the more suspicious amongst us may think it was leaked in order to try to expedite the whole process).

There's also the fact that Boris has got a kicking, including from his own party, about just announcing things without briefing or consultation with parliament. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Shipping Forecast said:

However please let me know who wrote the report with the 100k deaths in 20 years prophecy as with that amazing foresight on a still developing situation, I would like next week's lottery numbers 

My post mentioned 100k transplant operations, not deaths.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jim said:

An admirable concept, but it's not just the voting, it's all the required process, documentation and legal text that goes with it. My suspicion is that much of this was already done based around Thursday as the timeline they planned to go to before it got leaked (the more suspicious amongst us may think it was leaked in order to try to expedite the whole process).

There's also the fact that Boris has got a kicking, including from his own party, about just announcing things without briefing or consultation with parliament. 

I understand the issue but my point is that the situation is supposed to be critical and probably is but like Ed we nipped out for essential supplies this morning into Leicester the first time in three months. The town was OK but we were only going  to the market. Drove past B&Q, cars were queuing down the road to get in. Just up the road a branch of The Range just the same. We wanted to use both but decided against it. I hate to think what the Shires Shopping centre is like by now.

Internal Party Politics against helping to reduce the burden on the NHS?

I include all political party's in this comment

Link to post
Share on other sites

It is odd that people seem to be behaving very differently across the country. Could this be associated with infection rates I wonder?

I drove through our local 'village' of Cranleigh (almost a small town really) this moring. We have two decent supermarkets plus a M&S food hall. No queues, people were out and about pretty much as normal. Absolutely no evidence of panic buying. I was on my way to the local Screwfix to pick up a replacement shower head. Just one other person at the counter when I wemt in and a couple outside when I came out. No different to what it has been all year.

Why would people be queuing down the road to get into B&Q when it looks as if they will remain open as hardware stores according to the latest lists or, if they do close, will still be available for click and collect?

Edited by cvabishop
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

It is odd that people seem to be behaving very differently across the country. Could this be associated with infection rates I wonder?

I drove through our local 'village' of Cranleigh (almost a small town really) this moring. We have two decent supermarkets plus a M&S food hall. No queues, people were out and about pretty much as normal. Absolutely no evidence of panic buying. I was on my way to the local Screwfix to pick up a replacement shower head. Just one other person at the counter when I wemt in and a couple outside when I came out. No different to what it has been all year.

Why would people be queuing down the road to get into B&Q when it looks as if they will remain open as hardware stores according to the latest lists or, if they do close, will still be available for click and collect?

I have no idea. It could be that in certain areas of Leicester higher levels of restrictions have been in place since March. people are seeing that the sacrifices they are making has made little or no difference and so are trying to live a nearer normal life as possible. I suspect that as far as the current shopping sprees are concerned Leicester will be little different to other cities in the UK 

B&Q Leicester was a nightmare last time they tried click and collect. Que for hours and then find that they haven't actually got it. Screw Fix have been brilliant all through. Same parent company. B&Q must have a problem with stock control / lifting. Cranleigh is a lot different to Leicester. Enderby our local village is fine. Two small co ops (don't ask) a Chippy, Chinese, a couple of cafes three pubs and that's about your lot. Any way no need to venture into Leicester for 3 or 4 months.

Ian 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 31/10/2020 at 14:12, Cabin-boy said:

DON'T DO IT BORIS!

There is an alternative. 'Any Answers' on BBC R4 is asking for suggestions so:

The logic needs to be that as you can't rely on other people not contaminating you (because they may be asymptomatic), you should be held responsible if you catch the virus through your own negligence when in contact with other people (outside of your household obviously and those in care homes who are dependent on help etc). You have been told how to behave and what precautions to take. There is no excuse! Therefore the first step is to make the contact tracing app mandatory for every phone. (Refusal to download and install it automatically means you lose your 4G and WiFi functions and steps you down to 3G). Then there will be a fine if you test positive outside of the situations mentioned above (plus schools or any place where masks are not obligatory but a limited list). It would be a very effective technique and people wouldn't make the same mistake twice. It would force people to think before doing anything. We can equate it to speeding. Don't do this of face a penalty. 

Ed

 

 

For the suggested approach to work, you would need to know exactly where and when you caught Covid. Our government can't even test people routinely, so good luck there.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BobCrox said:

My post mentioned 100k transplant operations, not deaths.

As per apology to Colin, a mistake trying to do too much, and sorry for misquoting you. However, deaths, transplants or otherwise, the intention of comment still stands. Now not trying to do things quickly, here is a fuller reply.

Predicting anything in an ongoing situation where more is being found out everyday, the numbers of people being infected changes, and it could go up, down or sideways. The after effects are real but we do not know yet whether the virus just uncovered or exacerbated a dormant / underlying condition that would emerge later or is additional to that person’s health, or more likely a combination of both.

Plus, and this is main point, that far into the future when medical treatments will definitely improve is no more than a guess.

For example 20 years ago smart phones did not exist, and now not only can you get heart and oxygen monitors for smart phones, there are ultra sound, urine and blood analysis, ophthalmic units and even trial genetic analysers (COVID perhaps). There is even a ‘Tricorder’ unit that measures seven core aspects of health available, with Tricorder competitions to improve this.

Using the ultra sound as an example, compare iPhone unit that fits in a pocket to the R2D2 units on wheels, the size of a chest of drawers that are in current use. A tube of lube is bigger than the detector. The smart phone units are being used in A&E departments today as a quick use tool to diagnose issues immediately saving time and distress.

We even have a consumer watch that does a 2 line ECG and measures your blood oxygen levels available to buy today. Smartphones are really mini supercomputers and while not treatments, it is an illustration of ever faster improving technology.

There are as many advancements in treatments too from keyhole surgery to drugs, again trials of genetically based drug regimes specifically designed for that one individual, no one else. I could rattle on for hours about all the advancements being made but will stop here so not to bore anyone.

Some areas of technological are moving ever faster, granted not all good, but light speed compared to other fields. So you will have to forgive me if I take the pronouncements of doom and gloom, 100k this, 400k that from people with a vested interest, with a hefty pinch of salt.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/11/2020 at 02:09, Shipping Forecast said:

Everyone should be able to easily assess this (if they want to) when new factors are known, then make personal choices depending on their known risk factors like we do with every other aspect of life. Then we can weigh up what is important. Cancer treatment or risk of catching COVID? Seeing elderly relatives or risk of catching COVID? Disadvantaging those in education or risk of catching COVID?

I agree. The problem here is that we all have very different attitude to risk. I continually hear members of the public on Radio 4 saying that they haven't been out since March as they are shielding. Why? You can still go outside.

So if we take the approach suggested above, how do we deal with parents that won't send their kids to school or people who won't go to work because they have made their own assessment with the available data?

Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...