Jump to content

Corona virus


Message added by Jim,

Please remember - this thread can get a bit heated at times... try to keep politics out of it, and be respectful to the views of others.

Recommended Posts

Yes, the visit, although within the rules was not altogether wise and he has paid with his life plus his son has to live with the consequences, as will his wife and rest of his family.

A tragedy all round and just one of many.

But if any one insists to me that it is just a cold...

Colin

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We've a young crowd in here today!

It will be pasta and rice next, how have they got through the stockpiles from March?

Thanks everyone! 5 hours in theatre, all done. They misrouted the catheter and can't get a new one in. Pray I manage to pee before 10pm or the stick a pronged tube through my stomach.

Posted Images

I just thought I'd post an end-of-year pool update. 

I have decided to keep it in place and filled throughout the winter.

I was told that once the temperature of the water drops below a certain point then bacteria can't develop nearly as easily as long as the chlorine levels are regularly topped up.

It's currently at a rather fresh 6 degrees which means putting my hand into the water to attach the vacuum is pretty painful. I've been cleaning it with the vacuum every 3 weeks and running the pump at weekends, weather permitting, and it's manageable. 

The cover is preventing most of the leaves etc. flying around from getting in the water but there is still some dirt at the bottom that needs vacuuming up. 

Ed

DSC_0709.JPG

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just for curiosities sake I've had a trip down memory lane to look at what medical facilities were available in my home city the last time this country was crippled by a virus. 

Obviously medical research, discovered drug therapies and after care has changed the landscape but in terms of actual medical centres - centres which have beds and the staff to care for inpatients, many if not most have gone, sold off to be converted to University sites and halls of residence..

I was interested why today a virus which on a global scale has such a low mortality rate but requires days or even weeks of convalescence puts so much strain on our modern NHS.

The answer seems to be that we simply don't have the facilities or staff anymore.

1968, the year I was born, was in the throes of a flu outbreak that by 1970 had directly accounted for the lives of 3 million men, women & children. No vaccine, no real drug therapies, Andrew Allen's life changing drug which he discovered at Boots, Ibuprofen, was still a year away from marketing. 

The outbreak is what has partly given us the flu jabs we have today combined with the strain that was the cause of the 1957 & 1967 outbreaks. These are the viruses the A & B vaccines are produced from which are used annually in differing quantities to deal with the specific strain doing the rounds. 

Historically the city of Liverpool was in decline which peaked around 1986 but in that 20 - 25 year period we also saw the building of overspill dwellings due to the cities slum clearance programme, dwelling built in areas which where previously rural... Kirkby, Halewood, Huyton, Cantril Farm & Speke not to mention those a little further afield such as the  Liverpool New town of Skelmersdale who's residents travelled to Ormskirk for medical treatment. (I was born there so I'm really a woolly back and not a true scouser!)

At this time Liverpool and the surrounding boroughs of Sefton & Knowsley which form part of the city but are beyond the boundary was well catered for.

Eight major hospitals with A&E/Casualty/ED facilities, Bootle, Fazakerley, The Royal, Broad Green, Walton, Sefton, Newsham Park & Whiston.

Five separate maternity hospitals, Fazakerley Lower lane, Broad Green Thomas Lane, Mills St, The Myrtle Oxford St, Whiston Stoney lane.

Four children's hospitals, Alder Hey, Myrtle St, Olive Mount, Rathbone.

One women's hospital, Catherine St.

 Today for a population which has increased to nearly 1.6 million?

It's scary stuff...

Three major hospitals with A&E, Fazakerley, The New Royal, Whiston.

Two separate maternity hospitals, Lower Lane & Stoney Lane which are now absorbed into both Fazakerley and Whiston.

One combined women's & maternity, The Liverpool Women's. This replaced The Myrtle & Catherine St but now has only 60% of the bed space.

One children's hospital, Alder Hey.

The borough of Sefton no longer has a hospital, residents travel to The Royal. Knowsley have Whiston but now that has to also serve St Helens too which has a greater population than here in Harrogate.

I also looked at South Wales, an area close to my heart but that was too depressing.

This isn't to prove anything as such, just something to occupy the mind but it makes you wonder...

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, jonno said:

Just for curiosities sake I've had a trip down memory lane to look at what medical facilities were available in my home city the last time this country was crippled by a virus. 

Obviously medical research, discovered drug therapies and after care has changed the landscape but in terms of actual medical centres - centres which have beds and the staff to care for inpatients, many if not most have gone, sold off to be converted to University sites and halls of residence..

I was interested why today a virus which on a global scale has such a low mortality rate but requires days or even weeks of convalescence puts so much strain on our modern NHS.

The answer seems to be that we simply don't have the facilities or staff anymore.

1968, the year I was born, was in the throes of a flu outbreak that by 1970 had directly accounted for the lives of 3 million men, women & children. No vaccine, no real drug therapies, Andrew Allen's life changing drug which he discovered at Boots, Ibuprofen, was still a year away from marketing. 

The outbreak is what has partly given us the flu jabs we have today combined with the strain that was the cause of the 1957 & 1967 outbreaks. These are the viruses the A & B vaccines are produced from which are used annually in differing quantities to deal with the specific strain doing the rounds. 

Historically the city of Liverpool was in decline which peaked around 1986 but in that 20 - 25 year period we also saw the building of overspill dwellings due to the cities slum clearance programme, dwelling built in areas which where previously rural... Kirkby, Halewood, Huyton, Cantril Farm & Speke not to mention those a little further afield such as the  Liverpool New town of Skelmersdale who's residents travelled to Ormskirk for medical treatment. (I was born there so I'm really a woolly back and not a true scouser!)

At this time Liverpool and the surrounding boroughs of Sefton & Knowsley which form part of the city but are beyond the boundary was well catered for.

Eight major hospitals with A&E/Casualty/ED facilities, Bootle, Fazakerley, The Royal, Broad Green, Walton, Sefton, Newsham Park & Whiston.

Five separate maternity hospitals, Fazakerley Lower lane, Broad Green Thomas Lane, Mills St, The Myrtle Oxford St, Whiston Stoney lane.

Four children's hospitals, Alder Hey, Myrtle St, Olive Mount, Rathbone.

One women's hospital, Catherine St.

 Today for a population which has increased to nearly 1.6 million?

It's scary stuff...

Three major hospitals with A&E, Fazakerley, The New Royal, Whiston.

Two separate maternity hospitals, Lower Lane & Stoney Lane which are now absorbed into both Fazakerley and Whiston.

One combined women's & maternity, The Liverpool Women's. This replaced The Myrtle & Catherine St but now has only 60% of the bed space.

One children's hospital, Alder Hey.

The borough of Sefton no longer has a hospital, residents travel to The Royal. Knowsley have Whiston but now that has to also serve St Helens too which has a greater population than here in Harrogate.

I also looked at South Wales, an area close to my heart but that was too depressing.

This isn't to prove anything as such, just something to occupy the mind but it makes you wonder...

 

The biggest problem Jonno is that with modern medicine patients don't spend long in Hospital, so the brains said we don't need so many beds.  Also with more medicine being centred on super Hospitals they got rid of the smaller ones, keeping all the experts in one place.  Then something like Covid comes along and they haven't got the capacity, beds or staff.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The French authorities, if the leaks from Government are true, seem to be planning to roll out the 6pm curfew across the entire country from this weekend. 

The professor in charge of ICU beds at the hospital in Angers told me last night that he sees no need for such drastic measures in our area as they are not under any significant strain right now. His view was that they feel they need to do something each week just to pretend they are in charge otherwise people will get complacent. He's also concerned that it will lead to people crowding unnecessarily into public transport and supermarkets to meet the deadline and thereby increasing the risk of contagion. 

He said that the logical option, if they were serious, is a full national lockdown now for a short period to regain control of cases while they can before things get worse. The reason they won't do so seems to be that the (already delayed) winter sales are due to start next Wednesday and there would be a massive backlash from shopkeepers if they close everything down again right now. 

He also had his first vaccination yesterday and said he's sure doses are being wasted due to inefficient organisation.

Ed

Link to post
Share on other sites

The French prime minister is apparently going to be accompanied by 6 other ministers at his weekly press conference this evening. 

I was wondering what the collective noun is for such a group. 

A shower of...

An embarrassment of...

A flange of...

Any other suggestions? 

Ed

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Cabin-boy said:

The French authorities, if the leaks from Government are true, seem to be planning to roll out the 6pm curfew across the entire country from this weekend.

I have to say I don't really see the point of a 6pm curfew if bars / restaurants / cinemas are already closed and mixing in other's homes is already banned. As you say, it's just going to artificially compress the travel of those who follow the rules.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Ferry Man said:

Notice the bit at the end about protecting doctors from legal action, when I heard that yesterday I said "any lawyer that does that wants to look hard at themselves, to even think about threatening Doctors at the moment unless they make a really bad mistake."

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The new pearl of wisdom doing the rounds:

No antibodies in previous sufferers means no immunity.

AAAAHHHH...!

Dear Lord save me from these brain dead imbecilic morons...!!!

There's no such thing as immunity from coronaviruses, your body simply produces antibodies to fight them when they appear. T & B Cell memory lasts for years, they're dormant until the specific virus tries to infect the subject again. The base DNA of Covid is no different to the common cold, if it was it wouldn't be a coronavirus.

The reason it's bad is because it's a new variant the body has never seen before so you either use herd immunity to produce T&B Cells or inject antibodies in order to create them artificially.

... but you will still catch it in some form.

The problem we'll face until later in the year is that those being vaccinated aren't the ones going out anyway, never were. Like it or not we who are on the vulnerable list, staying at home, doing what we're told & self isolating aren't the priority.

If you've had CV19 then go to the back of the queue, you've got the required T&B Cell memory. If you had it bad, you won't have it as bad when you inevitably catch it again... It's a coronavirus and not a very deadly one so...

We should be prioritising police, fire, ambulance, shop staff, transport workers, postal staff, utility workers, all those members of society who are still getting up every morning and going to work in an environment which can't help but expose others in close proximity.

It's the fit and healthy workers we should be worrying about They are the ones asymptomatically catching & spreading it unawares whilst still working their knackers off keeping us fed & watered. Line the workers up in the canteens and carparks and start jabbing them a bit like it was done to me as a teenager for the BCG.

I don't know what others definition of essential is but I think absolutely necessary & extremely important are top of the list on Google.

These workers are essential or they're not... HMG needs to make up it's mind and do something practical rather than political.

... but they won't as it's all about the hospitals and London, nothing more.

Londoners being transported to Newcastle filling their beds. What happens if or when the Kent Strain reaches their doors, an area which is already supposed to be a Covid hotspot. Those with the more severe strain moving around the country are taking it with them regardless of how supposedly controlled the environment is. 

It's flawed logic.

If anyone believes that all of the isolation protocols in our hospitals stops the spread within their walls then I suggest they get a subscription to Amazon's Audible and begin listening to the Famous Five.

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, but it is the oldies who are mainly clogging up the ICU beds and putting the pressure on the NHS and the vaccination policy is intended to address this, not to stop people who are less likely so suffer badly from getting it. Clear those out of the way with the vaccine and it frees up resources for non covid treatments. Most younger sufferers don't need hospital treatment.

There is a logic to that approach even if it is not the only one.

Anyway, despite regional diffrences there is good progress being made overall. I have had positive reports from people I know in various areas about vaccination progress.

The only thing I'm now worried about is the suggestion that it might stop at just one jab which could leave the bulk of the population more vulnerable than if the stipulated second one is not administered. It is still possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The benefits of vaccination in terms of ongoing resistance to infection have still to be fully identified and that will take time.

Too many people seem to be thinking that three weeks after vaccination they are home free and I doubt it it is anywhere as simple as that so don't bank on booking a BF trip to France anytime soon. I rather think it will just be staycations for 2021 at best as things stand at the moment.

Edited by cvabishop
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

Yes, but it is the oldies who are mainly clogging up the ICU beds and putting the pressure on the NHS and the vaccination policy is intended to address this, not to stop people who are less likely so suffer badly from getting it. Clear those out of the way with the vaccine and it frees up resources for non covid treatments. Most younger sufferers don't need hospital treatment.

There is a logic to that approach even if it is not the only one.

Anyway, despite regional diffrences there is good progress being made overall. I have had positive reports from people I know in various areas about vaccination progress.

The only thing I'm now worried about is the suggestion that it might stop at just one jab which could leave the bulk of the population more vulnerable than if the stipulated second one is not administered. It is still possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The benefits of vaccination in terms of ongoing resistance to infection have still to be fully identified and that will take time.

Too many people seem to be thinking that three weeks after vaccination they are home free and I doubt it it is anywhere as simple as that so don't bank on booking a BF trip to France anytime soon. I rather think it will just be staycations for 2021 at best as things stand at the moment.

I'd agree to a point but most of the country is occupied by those of us in the 18-64 & 65-84 age groups which has always represented the bulk of those in hospital suffering from anything.

Currently there are 4751 patients in ventilated beds in England, 2654 are Covid patients. 958 between 18-64 and 1126 between 65-84, the bulk of the rest are 85+. We can see by this that nearly 50% of our ventilated beds are occupied by none Covid sufferers

There have been 986 discharges between 18-64 and 937 between 65-84. what is very encouraging is that there have been 427 discharged in the age group of 85+.

If you've not glazed over yet.

There are 116,901 occupied beds in England, 28,246 are Covid patients. You'd agree that this represents just less than 25%.

What is also crucial is that there are currently 99,934 hospital staff off sick in England, 49,704 of those are Covid related due to infection or isolation.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

With vaccines, everyone forgets we are still in massive trial and in 6 months the advice maybe very different. One dose maybe enough. 

AZ in it's trials had 59% of the participants have a second dose 9 to 12 weeks after the initial dose. Those who had the longer gap had a stronger immune response 14 days after the final dose than the 2 -3 week. The 2-3 weeks comes from the mRNA type vaccines not AZ.

However what is important to stress is that in the first 10 to 21 days days after the first dose, you had a very similar probability of having COVID as not having the injection and it takes a while to build full immunity even with doses 2 to 3 weeks apart.

If you were in charge would you keep to the initial script and give half the people the double dose with 80 to 95% protection for them and the rest can wait, or give everyone 60 to 80% protection initially before finalising? I suspect the answer depends on which age bracket you are in.

And while everyone is warbling on about death rates compared to other countries (maybe a large part a reflection on the general health of the population ...), the after effects of COVID will have a lifetime's impact on many multiples more.

I do agree with @jonno a more selective process should have been used across all age ranges, as there are many forgotten especially in the background who keep the energy flowing and transport going, bring us necessities from food to safe water, protect us and really keep the country running come rain or shine. 

Plus the educators. The damage we are doing to our future by crippling our education systems is criminal Catching up is not an option for many, as vital time at impressionable ages is being lost every day. And these are the people who are going to keep society going, fund the Ponzi schemes we call pensions and care for the increasing older population.

Unfortunately the real costs are yet to come.

References - The Lancet, BMJ, vaccine manufacturers, PHE, MHRA, LSHTM, RCPCH.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Shipping Forecast said:

With vaccines, everyone forgets we are still in massive trial and in 6 months the advice maybe very different. One dose maybe enough. 

AZ in it's trials had 59% of the participants have a second dose 9 to 12 weeks after the initial dose. Those who had the longer gap had a stronger immune response 14 days after the final dose than the 2 -3 week. The 2-3 weeks comes from the mRNA type vaccines not AZ.

However what is important to stress is that in the first 10 to 21 days days after the first dose, you had a very similar probability of having COVID as not having the injection and it takes a while to build full immunity even with doses 2 to 3 weeks apart.

If you were in charge would you keep to the initial script and give half the people the double dose with 80 to 95% protection for them and the rest can wait, or give everyone 60 to 80% protection initially before finalising? I suspect the answer depends on which age bracket you are in.

And while everyone is warbling on about death rates compared to other countries (maybe a large part a reflection on the general health of the population ...), the after effects of COVID will have a lifetime's impact on many multiples more.

I do agree with @jonno a more selective process should have been used across all age ranges, as there are many forgotten especially in the background who keep the energy flowing and transport going, bring us necessities from food to safe water, protect us and really keep the country running come rain or shine. 

Plus the educators. The damage we are doing to our future by crippling our education systems is criminal Catching up is not an option for many, as vital time at impressionable ages is being lost every day. And these are the people who are going to keep society going, fund the Ponzi schemes we call pensions and care for the increasing older population.

Unfortunately the real costs are yet to come.

References - The Lancet, BMJ, vaccine manufacturers, PHE, MHRA, LSHTM, RCPCH.

We have to remember the vaccine is to keep people out of hospital not to stop the spread, at the moment.  You say about the different groups we rely on, of which there are more than people think about, there are that many that vaccinating all in the first waves would not be possible.  If the vaccine does stop the spread then it would pay to do the people who are moving around more.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Solo said:

We have to remember the vaccine is to keep people out of hospital not to stop the spread, at the moment.

?? Fortunately the vaccine does both at the same time - enabling the body to tackle the virus more effectively reducing the intensity of the infection, thus preventing spread and hospitalisations.

2 hours ago, Solo said:

You say about the different groups we rely on, of which there are more than people think about, there are that many that vaccinating all in the first waves would not be possible.

I am sure the estimated 1.1m key workers could have fitted somewhere into the 4.7m doses given to date. And these are the people who do move more or have more contact with different sets of people.

Perhaps all the UK drivers who were caught in the debacle before Christmas, should have been dosed at the same time starting the transition to less restricted transport movements and less likely to drag it back and forth in their travels?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Our hospitals are remaining full as during the first lockdown all elective procedures were cancelled, since July the NHS have been attempting to raise the service back to a level which resembles something more normal.

They are also remaining full as we are now more successful recovering Covid patients.

At the height of the pandemic during April & May 2020 if a Covid patient entered hospital under blue lights with SATS of 92 or lower then 63% would either be in ICU or dead within 30 days... only 37% would recover.

Now in January 2021 it's the complete opposite we now have a 65% recovery rate for those presenting in the same way, we need twice as many recovery beds whilst still attempting to offer a normal level of care.

There is an interesting learned theory doing the rounds... a theory, nothing more.

Based on previous years figures at this time collectively English hospitals would have seen around 25,000 Influenza admissions over the 4 month period from October and an associated mortality rate of 5% - 1250. The patients are usually very sick by the time they present. 

Since October 2020 NHS England has admitted just 4000 and the mortality rate is less than 5%.

Thinking is that Covid is getting there first meaning that many of the 28,000+ in English hospitals being treated for CV19 would be there being treated for flu.

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is from an article published in November:

Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54‚ÄČyears or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI‚ÄČ=‚ÄČ7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64‚ÄČyears, and more than 62 times higher (IRR‚ÄČ=‚ÄČ62.1; 95%CI‚ÄČ=‚ÄČ59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR‚ÄČ=‚ÄČ1.77, 95%CI‚ÄČ=‚ÄČ1.74, 1.79).

If you accept the main reason for vaccination is to prevent death and overwhelming ICU wards then, for me, there's little to argue about here. Vaccinate the elderly and others at risk.  I speak as someone not expected to get their dose until the summer at the earliest.

Knowing our government, we can expect a U-turn soon and we will have the worst of all worlds - a shambolic vaccination programme which may even risk the overall effectiveness of the vaccine itself.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...