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KenTownley

Corona virus

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We need perspective, but it seems that we sometimes stray into putting our opinions forward to contradict what we see as lack thereof. Being a moderator on a forum with subjects like this being discussed is seriously tough when one feels strongly about the subject oneself. BFE and its forums are its members, not its staff, so it is incumbent on each one of us to be civil, polite and to avoid confrontation. Solidarity in a hard place I believe we can all sign up to. And thank you to our "staff" for your selfless efforts.

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17 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.
 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

This measure, based on statistical spreading, must surely be affected by the fact that many people are vaccinated against flu and therefore will not catch it when otherwise they would?  Is it therefore an accurate measure of the inherent contagiousness of the virus in the absence of medical intervention?  I think it must also be affected by the fact that very many cases of flu are not reported or positively tested.  Mind you, that will be the same for CV19.  And, ultimately, I agree, this might be a bit of a digression.

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It's all a fine example of the "unknowns". We are all trying to make some sort of sense out of the various statistics that are being bandied about. At the moment we just don't know how this is going pan out. Come September, it all may be over and we will wondering what all the fuss was about. Taking a more pessimistic view we could be house bound until Christmas (which is a great shame because I should have an excellent Father Christmas beard by then ...it's not bad as it is ...

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Well the SNHS are working on a 6 month timescale so far with a dip in October ish then a slight lesser peak in the winter months hopefully there will be a vaccine by them or nearly then.

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4 hours ago, Gareth said:

I think there are issues to do with proximity and mode of infection too.  The “2 metre rule” for CV19 implies that you need to be within 2m of someone to catch it.  My understanding is that you can catch flu from someone much further away from you.  Not sure why.

Interestingly enough, when listening to the 'Alerte Coronavirus' on French radio they have have been talking about a 1 metre distance, as opposed to the 2m in all media in the UK.

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13 minutes ago, AdamW said:

Interestingly enough, when listening to the 'Alerte Coronavirus' on French radio they have have been talking about a 1 metre distance, as opposed to the 2m in all media in the UK.

It’s not media in the UK it’s government regulation.

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13 hours ago, neilcvx said:

It’s also worth remembering that some of us on this forum will lose loved ones to this virus and that’s why it’s an emotive issue almost without parallel certainly in my lifetime.

I agree my father is 90 this year and my mother 87. He suffers badly from skin cancer and has difficulty breathing all the time both curtesy of working all his life down the pit.

So I also get emotive over this  hence my post re prince Charles and ventilators.

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1 hour ago, IanN said:

I agree my father is 90 this year and my mother 87. He suffers badly from skin cancer and has difficulty breathing all the time both curtesy of working all his life down the pit.

So I also get emotive over this  hence my post re prince Charles and ventilators.

Not quite a valid comparison, though, is it?  I agree that 87 and 90 year olds will not fare well in the triaging process when they are deciding who to ventilate and who not to.  Not sure where people of Prince Charles’ sort of age would come, maybe 71 would fare differently in different parts of the country.  A better comparison would probably be how they would deal with the Duke of Edinburgh, were he to come down with it.  On that comparison, I am sure he would have access to a ventilator were he to need one - in which case your point is proved.

I wish all our elderly relatives well through this.

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Posted (edited)

The French government has announced a further two-week extension to the lockdown taking us to April 15th. They will review the results as that date approaches and decide on whether a further extension is then required.

An updated document to justify any trips out-and-about has been produced. This was to crack down on abuse and give more information about your reasons. The link is below. I believe the old version is now unusable and have heard people are being fined for still using it! So the 30 copies my wife made at work last week to simplify our lives will become colouring sheets for my daughter.

https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/attestation_de_deplacement_derogatoire

Ed

Edited by Cabin-boy
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The old one can still be used, but you must add time as well as date.

Already more than one person locked up for 4 offences.... Around us yesterday several groups of strollers (not locals or even second home owners I recognised), adult and 3 teenage girls, 4 teenage boys, 3 adults and a child. Some people still think they are above it all. We live on the edge of the village, with the old slipway just down the hill, and fields behind.

If we get another day like that, we will be "verbalising" them ourselves!

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10 minutes ago, colin said:

The old one can still be used, but you must add time as well as date.

OK, thanks. I'll just have to make sure I don't present one on which my daughter has drawn an arrogant-looking chicken!  😀

Ed. 

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I don’t understand why this government aren’t using a similar certificate system there seems to be an amount of disregard for social distancing and other violations of the stay at home rules I suppose we would need to recruit more police or Stay at home wardens to monitor it and enforce it though.

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Just been to Boots to get some migraleve, was queuing outside and watching a couple of coppers remonstrating with a couple of homeless men.   Men whom I know quite well, and they were arguing with these coppers and shouting it was their *expletive* life and they will do what they *expletive* like.  On the verge of getting themselves arrested.  Why do it?  These guys are tramps and refuse to conform, and they come under the most difficult to help as they refuse everything offered.  Boots security guard said that the police were dealing with a lot of belligerent homeless people/street drinkers yesterday who were refusing to move or go into accommodation.  This morning I spotted quite a few rough sleepers in town, and they are supposed to be in accommodation at this moment.  Reckon the police cells will be their quarantine sooner or later if they refuse to do as they are told.  Shame, but if they refuse...

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Posted (edited)

A lot of homeless people also suffer from mental health issues and it’s not as easy as saying we’ve got you a room somewhere sleep there as they have a distrust of authority figures and sharing accommodation due to being robbed or sexually abused in such accommodation it’s a tough nut to crack.

Edited by neilcvx
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13 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

A lot of homeless people also suffer from mental health issues and it’s not as easy as saying we’ve got you a room somewhere sleep there as they have a distrust of authority figures and sharing accommodation due to being robbed or sexually abused in such accommodation it’s a tough nut to crack.

Very true. Yes it will be a tough nut with these guys, they cannot abide the police telling them what to do.  This is going to be a difficult one for forces up and down the country, if they try and crack down too hard on the homeless then they are just going to look really bad. I saw these two giving two coppers abuse earlier on and just felt they were likely to be arrested.

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Posted (edited)

From Bournemouth Police Facebook page.  As expected earlier one was arrested as I knew he would end being...🙄

58850576-1AED-4533-8C3F-00C0DCF61461.jpeg

Edited by Khaines
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20 hours ago, neilcvx said:

It’s not media in the UK it’s government regulation.

By 'media' I was meaning 'sources and then methods of sharing information'. Government regulation is distributed by means of 'government media' on the subject. 

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42 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

The BBC is currently running an article about what it would have been like if this was 2005. Unsurprisingly this wasn't an area that was mentioned! 

(And I did initially mis-read that as 'Macron', which takes on an even weirder twist!)

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22 hours ago, AdamW said:

Interestingly enough, when listening to the 'Alerte Coronavirus' on French radio they have have been talking about a 1 metre distance, as opposed to the 2m in all media in the UK.

... and Germany's 1.5. I've also seen the UK's measure described as 6 feet, which would only be 1.8m... but the gist in all of this is to keep apart and give space!

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2 minutes ago, Jim said:

... and Germany's 1.5. I've also seen the UK's measure described as 6 feet, which would only be 1.8m... but the gist in all of this is to keep apart and give space!

Waited in line at Tesco 2 metres apart 1 person in at a time lines in the aisles and at checkouts etc , saw an old wifey at least  80 years old being pushed about by a caring member of staff whilst another member of staff put the goods in her trolley which was attached to her wheelchair, also saw members of staff being trained on home shopping whilst both pushed the home shopping barrow and to top it all off the skate park we passed on the way home had at least 10 kids at it, 1 , 2 or 1.5 metres seems rather irrelevant.

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3 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

Waited in line at Tesco 2 metres apart 1 person in at a time lines in the aisles and at checkouts etc , saw an old wifey at least  80 years old being pushed about by a caring member of staff whilst another member of staff put the goods in her trolley which was attached to her wheelchair, also saw members of staff being trained on home shopping whilst both pushed the home shopping barrow and to top it all off the skate park we passed on the way home had at least 10 kids at it, 1 , 2 or 1.5 metres seems rather irrelevant.

Our local branch of Sainsbury's was well organised - we went late afternoon today and after waiting outside a few minutes were able to go in and shop with no issues. Spacing at the tills was marked out, with every other self-service till out of service to allow for spacing. I must admit it was a considerably calmer experience than we were expecting. 

A large percentage of the car park was cordoned off - not sure if this is to manage demand now on in potential preparation for an increase in click and collect capability, which I understand is something the supermarkets are looking to implement in the coming weeks.

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Here in Irish Republic things have got a little stricter with almost a lock-down for but essential workers. The Prime Minister did cause a bit of a panic in his Saturday evening address. Folks are supposed to exercise within 2 Km of home, but people thought this meant shopping as well and there was a rush to the shops.

I'm over the magic age of 70 and thus am supposed to be cocooning, i.e. stay indoors for at least 14 days and abide by 10 pages of rules. Not even supposed to eat with my wife, and not share bathrooms or beds - some hopes

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5 hours ago, BigDW1946 said:

Here in Irish Republic things have got a little stricter with almost a lock-down for but essential workers. The Prime Minister did cause a bit of a panic in his Saturday evening address. Folks are supposed to exercise within 2 Km of home, but people thought this meant shopping as well and there was a rush to the shops.

I'm over the magic age of 70 and thus am supposed to be cocooning, i.e. stay indoors for at least 14 days and abide by 10 pages of rules. Not even supposed to eat with my wife, and not share bathrooms or beds - some hopes

Here in the UK we’re getting a letter.

Boris letter.

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2 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

Here in the UK we’re getting a letter.

Boris letter.

Yep.  Warning that if people don’t abide by the rules then the rules will get tougher.  This is probably the last chance for people in the UK to do as they’re told before stricter rules and heavier enforcement become necessary.  In that eventuality, I wouldn’t rule out deployment of the army.

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