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Would you still go away if stayed home 2 weeks?


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Is this not likely to be the same for the coronavirus so a vaccine is unlikely to be 100% effective.

Flu vaccine data for 2017 - 2018 only 10% effective in over 64 age group. Cannot seem to find data for 2018-2019.

There seems to be a suggestion that this virus has already mutated in some reports. So being very simplistic is the vaccine for the original strain or the possible new strain

 

Source Public Health England

Public Health England (PHE) has today (Wednesday, 18 July 2018) published data on the effectiveness of the flu vaccine in the 2017 to 2018 season. The data show that overall, flu vaccine was 15% effective in all age groups. However, effectiveness varied considerably. By age-group, the vaccine was overall:

  • 26.9% effective in children aged 2 to 17 years (who received the nasal spray)
  • 12.2% in at risk groups aged 18 to 64 years
  • 10.1% in those aged 65 and over
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Yes but during the more modern ones, 1957, '67-70 when millions in the U.K died and herd immunity was used there was no instant media, everyone got on with life and HMG didn't pander to the overly pol

I would still go. However, because the threat of quarantine was enough to worry the other half we cancelled our trip 48 hours before sailing (and got a full refund).  We were due to sail home on the d

Throughout England there were 100 hospitalised cases during week 33 spread across 51 of the 300 authorities. That's fact based on hospital reports. The week before the West Yorkshire lockdown eff

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11 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

I’m not sure what more evidence folk need WHO, UN, most western governments, university of Oxford and more all recommending wearing masks but still some folk say “aww there useless because one or two experts say so” , make your judgement based on research not on hearsay , any way masks aren’t going anywhere anytime soon .

Its a bit like Tesco (every little helps)

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47 minutes ago, VikingVoyager said:

I think I must have missed the study that backs that up

There are several studies that show the material of the mask is important - Oxford, Harvard, Duke, CDC etc. Mask research is still ongoing as there is not a definitive answer and one mask may not fit all situations.

N95 masks are good except those with valves.
General surgical masks currently offer the best all round protection but work better for larger droplets than aerosols
Tightly woven double layered fabrics can also offer good all round protection, better at transmission from you rather than protecting you.
Some fashion masks and replica (fake) surgical masks give the least protection of effective masks
Even vacuum cleaner bags (preferably unused) make good mask materials.

But the biggest finding is many single layer / loosely woven / fashion masks have demonstrated to actually increase the spread of aerosols and virons.

However as said before, the biggest issue is not the material but how they are worn. How many chin slings and nose peepers do we see everyday? Then there is touching masks and face, thought to be one of the biggest causes of infection. Face touching is quite often autonomic so people don't realise they are doing it. A study in the AJIC (American Journal of Infectious Medicine) showed people on average touched there face 23 times an hour, many of these unconsciously.

However still the most effective method of not transmitting any contagion person and person, mask or no mask, is physical distancing.

If the government, or government were really serious about masks, they would have a minimum standard, after all we have standards for everything else. They are all still going for managed slow community spread for long term societal immunity.

Edit: mistype correction

Edited by Shipping Forecast
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1 hour ago, neilcvx said:

I’m not sure what more evidence folk need WHO, UN, most western governments, university of Oxford and more all recommending wearing masks but still some folk say “aww there useless because one or two experts say so” , make your judgement based on research not on hearsay , any way masks aren’t going anywhere anytime soon .

Neil, you're clearly a great supporter of masks and I have no problem with that. For me I have yet to see any comprehensive research that conclusively concludes that the wearing of masks is of greater benefit than not. If one starts with a preconceived idea then problems arise. It's no point in only looking at one side of the equation and drawing conclusions from that. Even if masks were shown to be effective it would still not encourage me back into shops. I just don't want to be surrounded by people wearing masks and if that means I can't go into shops etc then I'm fine with that just sorry I won't be contributing at job and business retention.   

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55 minutes ago, Shipping Forecast said:

But the biggest finding is many single layer / loosely woven / fashion masks have demonstrated to actually increase the spread of aerosols and virons

Is that a finding common to many studies and is there a hypotheses as to why this is the case?

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1 minute ago, Rattler43 said:

Neil, you're clearly a great supporter of masks and I have no problem with that. For me I have yet to see any comprehensive research that conclusively concludes that the wearing of masks is of greater benefit than not. If one starts with a preconceived idea then problems arise. It's no point in only looking at one side of the equation and drawing conclusions from that. Even if masks were shown to be effective it would still not encourage me back into shops. I just don't want to be surrounded by people wearing masks and if that means I can't go into shops etc then I'm fine with that just sorry I won't be contributing at job and business retention.   

Yes I’m a supporter of following the research by multiple experts that’s not one side of the equation it’s a massive chunk of it , I feel like it’s getting a bit like arguing with anti vaxers, the research into the effectiveness of masks is there hence nearly most of the civilised worlds governments enforcing the wearing of them in enclosed spaces at least.

I’ve  posted the research by WHO and Oxford uni to prove their effectiveness ignore it or rubbish it if you want.

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Just now, VikingVoyager said:

Is that a finding common to many studies and is there a hypotheses as to why this is the case?

There’s an American study that proved bandanas increased the harm caused every other mask was at least partially effective.

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6 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

There’s an American study that proved bandanas increased the harm caused every other mask was at least partially effective.

Out of interest, how did bandanas make things worse - was it reduced social distancing (or another effect of misplaced confidence) or are they somehow actually spreading the virus more?

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37 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

Yes I’m a supporter of following the research by multiple experts that’s not one side of the equation it’s a massive chunk of it , I feel like it’s getting a bit like arguing with anti vaxers, the research into the effectiveness of masks is there hence nearly most of the civilised worlds governments enforcing the wearing of them in enclosed spaces at least.

I’ve  posted the research by WHO and Oxford uni to prove their effectiveness ignore it or rubbish it if you want.

Perhaps your level of proof is different to mine. No problem with that regarding masks you may be right I may be wrong. The one thing I do take very strong objection to is your inference that anyone who has any questions about the effectiveness of masks is an antivaxer. Perhaps an apology might be in order.

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4 minutes ago, Rattler43 said:

Perhaps your level of proof is different to mine. No problem with that regarding masks you may be right I may be wrong. The one thing I do take very strong objection to is your inference that anyone who has any questions about the effectiveness of masks is an antivaxer. Perhaps an apology might be in order.

I may be right the experts at the WHO might be right , the researchers at Oxford uni may be right but as I’ve said before there’s more and more evidence to show that most masks are at least partially effective it’s not an opinion that’s baseless it’s literally backed up by multiple world leading researchers.

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28 minutes ago, neilcvx said:

there’s more and more evidence to show that most masks are at least partially effective

If masks are only a couple of percent effective it would help, as someone said earlier "like Tesco, every little helps".

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My norm is not to wear the mask. It is a face covering so therefore I wear one of those plastic "welder style" shields so its solid, doesn't hold moisture that seeps through and people can see my stunningly good looking face 😂

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The WHO said... and I quote:

" Wearing a medical mask in a community setting is one of the prevention methods that can limit the spread of certain respiratory viral diseases, including COVID-19."

Dr Jake Dunning Head of Emerging Infections and Zoonoses at PHE (and a very active participant in SAGE meetings) said:

"Face masks play a very important role in clinical settings, such as hospitals and for people with symptoms. However there is very little evidence of widespread benefit."

Again this from the WHO... Interim guidance report

Guidance on the use of masks for the general public.

Available evidence Studies of influenza, influenza-like illness, and human coronaviruses (not including COVID-19) provide evidence that the use of a medical mask can prevent the spread of infectious droplets from a symptomatic infected person (source control) to someone else and potential contamination of the environment by these droplets.(54, 55) There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in households, in particular those who share a house with a sick person, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a measure preventing transmission.(41, 56-61) A recent meta-analysis of these observational studies, with the intrinsic biases of observational data, showed that either disposable surgical masks or reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks were associated with protection of healthy individuals within households and among contacts of cases.(42)

This could be considered to be indirect evidence for the use of masks (medical or other) by healthy individuals in the wider community; however, these studies suggest that such individuals would need to be in close proximity to an infected person in a household or at a mass gathering where physical distancing cannot be achieved, to become infected with the virus.

Results from cluster randomized controlled trials on the use of masks among young adults living in university residences in the United States of America indicate that face masks may reduce the rate of influenza-like illness, but showed no impact on risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.(62, 63) At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.

Many countries have recommended the use of fabric masks/face coverings for the general public. At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider.

WHO regularly monitors all emerging evidence about this important topic and will provide updates as more information becomes available.

 

The WHO suggested fabric mask, which they make clear are not PPE but to be worn for source control when self distancing of less than 1 metre is unavoidable should be made of three layers with a replaceable polypropylene centre, the inner layer should be cotton and light in colour so it's easily identified when damp.

They should be washed at 60 degrees using a biological detergent.

The WHO now recommend handwashing with detergent for 40-60 seconds and the massaging use of sanitiser spray/gel for 20-30 seconds.

 

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Imagine the science of the effectiveness in masks changing due to the massive amount of research going into their effectiveness with combating a new virus .

https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleid=27691&publicId=395

“If 95 percent of people wear cloth masks when within 6 feet of other people in public, it will reduce COVID-19 transmission by at least 30 percent. So if every infected person transmits the virus to 30 percent fewer people,“

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5 hours ago, cvabishop said:

The 50 pack of Optipro disposable masks I bought on Amazon are marked 11R Surgical. They cost no more than the flimsier ones on sale. Are they any good Jonno?

They are very good, Three medical suppliers we use ( I say we, I'm just the driver!) for the private work have Optipro in stock, I think they're a Canadian manufacturer and also produce sterile wipes, respirators etc etc. They're well regarded.

Type 2 R is fluid repellent and is efficient in high bacterial filtration to about 98%. They are recommended for outpatients, community use and primary & social care. 

The EN number is 14683 and they are made from three layers... outer is polypropylene, inner is polyester and the centre blown melt which I'm sure you're familiar with. 

We have them from Medisave, box in both cars and the van and I've also got a Virustatic shield which is a bit like a snood and pulls up over the nose and mouth.

Medisave have just dropped the price of one of their brands, a box of 50 Type IIR masks, to £13.99 which I think is less than 30p each but if you can get a box of 50 for under £20 then that's a good deal.

...Was at Fountains Abbey today, the National Trust are flogging flimsy thin cotton masks no thicker than a cotton handkerchief for £5 each!

I was not shy in letting them know how I felt about such exploitation.

Colin I get the feeling that there are a few on here who think that I think masks are a waste of time, I don't., I just believe that if we are to wear a face covering wear one that'll protect you and also offer some protection to those around you rather than looking to cut the cost by looking elsewhere.

Give it a few months and we'll probably see them on prescription for those in the more vulnerable categories... me included.

 

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There's no doubt that masks have a place in fighting this pandemic. But what concerns me is that some people see wearing them as a replacement for social distancing. They act as if a mask is some sort of magic bullet that negates the need for other measures. 🙄 

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9 hours ago, jonno said:

Colin I get the feeling that there are a few on here who think that I think masks are a waste of time, I don't., I just believe that if we are to wear a face covering wear one that'll protect you and also offer some protection to those around you rather than looking to cut the cost by looking elsewhere.

I know that you have a well founded view on masks and I broadly agree with you. Some other contributors still seem to believe masks in general have no value, and demand evidence of their value. Strangely, even in the face of said evidence, they never produce rational or scientific arguments to support their position .... A bit like Brexit?

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I wear a mask whenever I am in a public place. It works because when they see it people remember they are supposed to keep a distance. If I didn't wear one people would happily bump in to me.

Not wearing a mask is incredibly selfish. Do those non-mask wearers really want to keep infecting people?

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16 hours ago, jonno said:

The WHO suggested fabric mask, which they make clear are not PPE but to be worn for source control when self distancing of less than 1 metre is unavoidable should be made of three layers with a replaceable polypropylene centre, the inner layer should be cotton and light in colour so it's easily identified when damp.

We have just such masks. Hand-made and they look lovely.  Easy to wash.

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