DFDS Rosslare - Dunkerque

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, David Williams said:

But he did say 24 hours a day and time of day doesn’t matter for unaccompanied.

Unaccompanied will remain a smaller part of the Rosslare traffic unless operators change their current business models.

There are very few unaccompanied sailings anywhere departing 0000 to 0600.

There are very good reasons for that and it's basically terminal management.  If you have a roro with 150 trailer capacity departing at 0300 you basically need space for 300 trailers.

It's all hype.

I could see some scope for Rosslare in the 2100 to 0000 time slot but quite honestly, from what I am hearing of many Ireland - France sailings, the Direct boom has been and gone.  The ROI - GB routes are recovering week on week.  

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, David Williams said:

I have no problems if we lose all landbridge traffic, however for purely Irish loads going to Europe the TIR system should make the paperwork and checks simple.

The issue is that it will be a lot more difficult to drop part loads in the UK or pick up stuff on the way through.

I still think that this trend will end up with containers, unaccompanied has inefficiencies as well

Agree fully with all of this and whatever way the full picture plays out, anybody who believes that there won't be modal shifts away from accompanied to unaccompanied and containers is living in a parallel universe. 

But on the accompanied stuff that uses/used the landbridge.....

Let's leave our ferry industry sympathies aside and adopt a "UK Interest" mentality.....

What does it matter if all Landbridge freight that has no interactions with the UK Supply Chain moves to Direct?

Yes - it has the potential to affect UK Ports and ferry routes and associated jobs but the actual impact on the UK economy is very, very marginal.   

Sometimes when I read commentary on this, it comes across as the "Irish socking it to the Brits over Brexit"....actually most of it doesn't matter.

Supply chain changes are quite different and have the potential to negatively affect the UK economy obviously.  We seen the Sports Direct news this week, for example.

Edited February 13 by RickOShea

[Paully]

The cost of these direct ferries must have impacted on Irish hauliers, some estimates putting their extras costs as high as 30% or more. Not to mention affecting company flexibility with the tractor and trailer units being unavailable for longer. Such economics are ok for the short term and in an emergency but long term unsustainable. Shame really as we don`t want so many trucks on the landbridge.

[RickOShea]

7 minutes ago, Paully said:

The cost of these direct ferries must have impacted on Irish hauliers, some estimates putting their extras costs as high as 30% or more. Not to mention affecting company flexibility with the tractor and trailer units being unavailable for longer. Such economics are ok for the short term and in an emergency but long term unsustainable. Shame really as we don`t want so many trucks on the landbridge.

Well this is the reality that's missed in a lot of the discourse on this.

Irish consumers face major increases in prices for all products over time I suspect if this continues.

Mind you I think same will happen for many things in UK too.

[lg12]

People must stop the panic here. 

The transport component of the total cost most consumer products in supermarkets is estimated to be in the low single digits (3-5%). Even a 30% increase in transport costs will only increase the end cost to a consumer by 1%.

In the short term, consumers may face higher prices because of supply chains build around the UK with few immediate alternatives (flour is one example). A few months will probably fix that. 

[lg12]

Second major mess in the DFDS Irish Sea operation.  

Kerry has been sitting in Dunkirk for 3 days. I assume she will operate tonight's 23:00 departure (unless Drotten does a quick turnaround). 

Drotten is due into Dunkirk in about an hour. After crawling down the Irish Sea (15-16 knots presumably weather related), she covered most of the English Channel at 28-29 knots and should arrive almost on time. 

Visby will be operating a merged Saturday departure from Rosslare this evening. 

[Chef]

3 hours ago, RickOShea said:

Irish consumers face major increases in prices for all products over time I suspect if this continues.

We're use to that .

[RickOShea]

7 minutes ago, Chef said:

We're use to that .

I am already noticing it in the North...

[RickOShea]

35 minutes ago, lg12 said:

People must stop the panic here. 

The transport component of the total cost most consumer products in supermarkets is estimated to be in the low single digits (3-5%). Even a 30% increase in transport costs will only increase the end cost to a consumer by 1%.

In the short term, consumers may face higher prices because of supply chains build around the UK with few immediate alternatives (flour is one example). A few months will probably fix that. 

Yes but even a 1% increase in a 100 Euro weekly shop is 52 Euro per household per year and that's only Supermarkets.

Not to mention all the other stuff.

It's fair enough for those that can afford it, but even 1% increase in prices is not to be taken lightly when all economies are under pressure due to Covid.

 

[RickOShea]

28 minutes ago, lg12 said:

Second major mess in the DFDS Irish Sea operation.  

Kerry has been sitting in Dunkirk for 3 days. I assume she will operate tonight's 23:00 departure (unless Drotten does a quick turnaround). 

Drotten is due into Dunkirk in about an hour. After crawling down the Irish Sea (15-16 knots presumably weather related), she covered most of the English Channel at 28-29 knots and should arrive almost on time. 

Visby will be operating a merged Saturday departure from Rosslare this evening. 

I am told but haven't verified for certain that KERRY is due to weather.

 

I am still puzzled why so many sailings ex Dunkerque are departing late.  

Edited February 13 by RickOShea

[lg12]

24 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Yes but even a 1% increase in a 100 Euro weekly shop is 52 Euro per household per year and that's only Supermarkets.

Not to mention all the other stuff.

It's fair enough for those that can afford it, but even 1% increase in prices is not to be taken lightly when all economies are under pressure due to Covid.

 

I agree that 1% is not to be ignored, but when supermarket profit margins are in the region of 5-7% of product end price and manufacturer margins about the same, there is scope to absorb a 1% increase in transport costs.

Although there are huge economic pressures (which we will be paying for for decades to come), personal savings rates have increased massively over recent months in Ireland. A majority are still getting close to their normal salary (even those doing nothing), while the huge amount of disposable income normally spent on entertainment, pubs/dining and travel (Ireland is very high in the European league tables for all 3) is instead going into bank accounts. 

 

Edited February 13 by lg12

[lg12]

25 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

I am told but haven't verified for certain that KERRY is due to weather.

 

I am still puzzled why so many sailings ex Dunkerque are departing late.  

I would love to know that too.  

[lg12]

2 hours ago, RickOShea said:

I am told but haven't verified for certain that KERRY is due to weather.

 

I am still puzzled why so many sailings ex Dunkerque are departing late.  

It looks like Drotten will be the ship doing the Rosslare sailing tonight. It will be interesting to see whether they get her out on time. 

[Chef]

13 hours ago, lg12 said:

Although there are huge economic pressures (which we will be paying for for decades to come), personal savings rates have increased massively over recent months in Ireland. A majority are still getting close to their normal salary (even those doing nothing), while the huge amount of disposable income normally spent on entertainment, pubs/dining and travel (Ireland is very high in the European league tables for all 3) is instead going into bank accounts. 

125 billion euro in household accounts according to the Central Bank , that new Amazon Prime fulfillment centre in Baldonnel will be busy .

[Choucan]

DFDS have sold out every Rosslare - Dunkerque sailing to date, according to an article in The Guardian.

The article is about the reduction in demand for the land bridge; it adds little to what most on this forum will already be familiar with.  It does though suggest considerable concern for jobs at Holyhead.  I guess that is balanced at Rosslare .

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/20/ports-feel-the-chill-as-trade-re-routes-around-brexit-britain

 

[RickOShea]

15 minutes ago, Choucan said:

DFDS have sold out every Rosslare - Dunkerque sailing to date, according to an article in The Guardian.

The article is about the reduction in demand for the land bridge; it adds little to what most on this forum will already be familiar with.  It does though suggest considerable concern for jobs at Holyhead.  I guess that is balanced at Rosslare .

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/20/ports-feel-the-chill-as-trade-re-routes-around-brexit-britain

 

We know anecdotally that, although busy, this isn't true and DFDS' words in their most recent statement "enjoying near 100% utilisation from day one".  That's not "sold out".

 

https://www.dfds.com/en/about/media/news/dfds-direct-ireland-france-ferry-route

[lg12]

BBC news article on Rosslare mentions that additional DFDS services to Dunkirk are expected to be announced shortly.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/56201463

“An announcement of additional sailings is expected shortly.”

[colin]

7 hours ago, lg12 said:

“An announcement of additional sailings is expected shortly.”

That may be a way of saying they will announce the schedules going forward, as initially and with the current vessels, no one knows when things will change, stop, continue or whatever?

[lg12]

26 minutes ago, colin said:

That may be a way of saying they will announce the schedules going forward, as initially and with the current vessels, no one knows when things will change, stop, continue or whatever?

There have been a few reports of potential additional sailings (presumably to take the service to daily) in recent weeks. 

[jonno]

There's a big difference between the amount of full traffic heading out of Ireland direct to France to what is returning. For the extra €400 it costs and the added 6 hours it can't be sustainable.

Many Irish hauliers make up the difference by dropping loads through the U.K heading to the Welsh ports. They can't do that at sea 

[lg12]

50 minutes ago, jonno said:

There's a big difference between the amount of full traffic heading out of Ireland direct to France to what is returning. For the extra €400 it costs and the added 6 hours it can't be sustainable.

Many Irish hauliers make up the difference by dropping loads through the U.K heading to the Welsh ports. They can't do that at sea 

 

Where do you get the €400? Not saying it is wrong, but but curious. If heading to Germany/the Netherlands etc, the one way journey time is a few hours more (landbridge vs DFDS) but the overall journey time for a return (breaks included) is very similar IF the DFDS schedule works for you. Flexibility is still the huge advantage of the landbridge rather than a day (or in some cases 2) between sailings. 

With Ireland as a net exporter of goods, it is normal for trucks to leave emptier than they return. With supply chains built around the U.K., there was a natural opportunity to backfill with a stop on the way home. Brexit has changed that and we are seeing Irish companies progressively build new supply chains on mainland Europe, so the backfill opportunities will change too. 

There is total panic in the transport industry at the prospect of full customs controls in both the U.K. and EU from later this year. 

Edited February 28 by lg12

[David Williams]

24 minutes ago, lg12 said:

With Ireland as a net exporter of goods, it is normal for trucks to leave emptier than they return.

But the UK is a net importer so the Irish trucks on the land bridge perform a useful function  until everything is short sea containers.

 

[jonno]

3 hours ago, lg12 said:

Where do you get the €400? Not saying it is wrong, but but curious.

https://virginiacrosbie.co.uk/local-news/freight-customers-keen-to-return-to-holyhead-port/

Includes comments made by Stena's Ian Davis.

Edited February 28 by jonno

[colin]

10 hours ago, jonno said:

https://virginiacrosbie.co.uk/local-news/freight-customers-keen-to-return-to-holyhead-port/

Includes comments made by Stena's Ian Davis.

Bearing in mind that the Stena representative quoted is part of Stena's team operating the port of Holyhead, I would hope to find him pushing the advantages of the land bridge, especially against his group's direct competitor DFDS?

[jonno]

1 hour ago, colin said:

Bearing in mind that the Stena representative quoted is part of Stena's team operating the port of Holyhead, I would hope to find him pushing the advantages of the land bridge, especially against his group's direct competitor DFDS?

Yeah in many ways that's true but he's not about to quote figures and time scales which can be disproved putting Stena in a negative light, not on such competitive sea lanes plus as a first step they also increased their direct tonnage too although now they're beginning to return their ships to their usual routes, if they've not done so already.