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3 hours ago, RickOShea said:

I am not sure I can agree with that.   Unless the Inishmore stops her Welsh sailing, there is almost zero berthing capacity left at useful time slots.  (Maybe Thursday or Sunday when there is no sailing to Dunkerque but that's it and there is surely a good reason why nobody has taken these slots).

Additionally. it's very clear the check-in facilities, port lay out and access roads are creaking under the pressure.  These things could be addressed (e.g. the huge amount of unused foot passenger parking that even in normal times is only heavily used on rugby weekends) but you can't deal with that quickly.

I agree about the surrounding infrastructure but if Rosslare managed 5 departures in 3 hours on Monday, I can't see why it shouldn't be possible other days too with a bit of adaptation. The useful time window for departures to France isn't quite that narrow and could also be before 16:00 or after 22-23:00.

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EXACTLY! We are talking about 500% starting from a very small number.  The last figures I analysed suggested STENA HORIZON was averaging 70 freight units a sailing with 3 sailings each way per we

I`m at a loss to understand why the Welsh Government would get involved. Yes the reduction of traffic will cause a reduction in port charges but thats all. These lorries roll off at Holyhead and by an

Couple of pics of Drottens arrival from Rosslare Europort twitter    

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9 hours ago, lg12 said:

I agree about the surrounding infrastructure but if Rosslare managed 5 departures in 3 hours on Monday, I can't see why it shouldn't be possible other days too with a bit of adaptation. The useful time window for departures to France isn't quite that narrow and could also be before 16:00 or after 22-23:00.

There are 4 most nights.  I seriously think we have reached total peak capacity at Rosslare now.  Though if the Fishguard route disappears that might open up new opportunities.

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A new access road to the Europort has been designed for sometime plus the last stretch of the M11 (Oilgate to Rosslare) is planned, along with capital expenditure at the port itself. All it needs is Wexford County Council, the Irish Government, and port owners to pull their respective fingers out. It isn't as if there's no local support for all this.

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All this new business is great news for Rosslare and the area in general. However increased pressure tends to result in increased stresses and strains. I’m thinking here of Rosslare dock workers who’ve enjoyed a relatively quiet last few years, and suddenly they are expected to be on call on an almost 24/7  - 24h/24h basis. Does anyone here no whether they are publicly or privately employed, and if so have you heard of any potential rumblings about pay and conditions...?

Just à thought....

Chris

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4 hours ago, Fine Whine said:

All this new business is great news for Rosslare and the area in general. However increased pressure tends to result in increased stresses and strains. I’m thinking here of Rosslare dock workers who’ve enjoyed a relatively quiet last few years, and suddenly they are expected to be on call on an almost 24/7  - 24h/24h basis. Does anyone here no whether they are publicly or privately employed, and if so have you heard of any potential rumblings about pay and conditions...?

Just à thought....

Chris

Mostly Irish Rail publicly employed staff and highly unionised.

Things might have changed from my time there, but it wasn't the most flexible place to do business then.

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It is not impossible to imagine that in the medium-term a somewhat increased Cherbourg service (either in ship capacity or frequency) could survive alongside some form of DFDS Dunkirk runs.

Now, I am less convinced that will result in a 500% increase in overall Rosslare freight volumes over the course of the year, especially with reduced services to Wales. 

What will be quite interesting is whether the Dunkirk services really generate a new market of transporters wanting to arrive closer to Belgium/Germany/the Netherlands (accepting the added cost) that might otherwise have taken the landbridge, but would not consider Cherbourg attractive.

If that’s the case (and it is viable), it will be interesting to see if any other players try to grab a part of that (and not necessarily to Dunkirk).

 

 

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So where is this 500% increase coming from?  

If it’s all Dublin, then a 500% increase at Rosslare would probably equate to all Dublin traffic, which clearly isn’t happening.

If, for arguments’s sake, it’s an equal (in proportional terms) mixture of Dublin, Warrenpoint, Belfast and Larne, then a 500% increase would probably equate to something like an 80% decline at each of those ports.  That clearly isn’t happening.

So, if 500% is correct, then surely a good proportion of that must be due to new custom rather than existing custom re-routing?

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(Unless, of course, the pre-existing sailings from Rosslare were operating nowhere near capacity, in which case the starting base for traffic will have been lower than the sailing frequency would imply).

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4 minutes ago, Gareth said:

If it’s all Dublin, then a 500% increase at Rosslare would probably equate to all Dublin traffic, which clearly isn’t happening.

Aren't there about 8 sailings a day UK - Dublin? How many new sailings a day are there out of Rosslare? I thought there were only about three.

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3 minutes ago, VikingVoyager said:

Aren't there about 8 sailings a day UK - Dublin? How many new sailings a day are there out of Rosslare? I thought there were only about three.

There were previously about 5 or 6 departures a day out of Rosslare, so a 500% increase would equate to around 20 additional departures per day!  (Unless the existing 5 or 6 were sailing largely empty).

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The only plausible conclusion, if the 500% figure is correct, is that before the increase Rosslare was handling a tiny amount of traffic compared with the the number of departures.  The ships must have been sailing almost empty.  So most of this increase would have involved filling existing capacity.

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3 minutes ago, Gareth said:

There were previously about 5 or 6 departures a day out of Rosslare, so a 500% increase would equate to around 20 additional departures per day!  (Unless the existing 5 or 6 were sailing largely empty).

something doesn't stack up, agreed!

 

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Just now, Gareth said:

The only plausible conclusion, if the 500% figure is correct, is that before the increase Rosslare was handling a tiny amount of traffic compared with the the number of departures.  The ships must have been sailing almost empty.  So most of this increase would have involved filling existing capacity.

yes - if you took the Covid/brexit numbers for the existing routes and compared them to the current surge then 500% might make sense, but it sounds ambitious long term.

Though I can see the Dublin UK would only need to loose a few sailings to have a big percentage impact on Rosslare

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The number and analysis is direct from the horses mouth although I have no idea how they've reached their figures. The port manager has been speaking to the shipping press.

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Even if you allow for an extra 3 sailings per day, that’s a 50% increase in departures.

A 50% increase in departures but a 500% increase in traffic.  If all sailings are now sailing full, then the maths is that the existing 6 sailings were sailing at about 25% capacity.

It then follows that, of the 500% increase, about a third of it is being catered for by the new sailings and two thirds of it by filling the existing sailings.

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22 minutes ago, jonno said:

Rosslare had one ship sailing to France - circa 100 trailers. Today they have five ships serving France - circa 500 trailers.

But the figure wasn’t just for traffic for France - it was for “traffic through Rosslare”.

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1 minute ago, Gareth said:

But the figure wasn’t just for traffic for France - it was for “traffic through Rosslare”.

All it said was that there was a 500% increase in freight volume.

Previously Rosslare to France had a capacity of 1 ship & 95 trailers a 500% increase in freight volume equates to 475 trailers. There are currently 5 ships and a trailer capacity far exceeding 616.

 

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2 hours ago, Gareth said:

The only plausible conclusion, if the 500% figure is correct, is that before the increase Rosslare was handling a tiny amount of traffic compared with the the number of departures.  The ships must have been sailing almost empty.  So most of this increase would have involved filling existing capacity.

EXACTLY!

We are talking about 500% starting from a very small number.  The last figures I analysed suggested STENA HORIZON was averaging 70 freight units a sailing with 3 sailings each way per week.  So that's 1050 units each way per week today. This probably accounts for a good chunk of the reported 150,000 landbridge units per year - especially given it is January (a quiet month) and Stockpiling.  But let's not get hung up on figures when we don't have all the data.

But to sound like a very repetitive record, anybody claiming what is happening now means anything is simply creating spin and hype.  

We need to see what happens in the coming months regarding whether Brexit paperwork settles down, what happens with Covid, what modal shifts occur etc etc.  

If we consider that in the past up to 4 drivers were being placed in one cabin that now only accommodates 1 driver, that is a huge factor too in how many ships are required.

The current level of capacity ex Rosslare simply won't continue forever.  (Though without a doubt some of the additional capacity will remain)

And if it does, the axe will soon fall on some services, Fishguard - Rosslare, already down to 1 roundtrip per day, probably first in line.

Also - there continues to be widespread mixing up on Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland traffic patterns.  Whilst, there have been some supply chain issues to the North (mainly supermarkets) which are gradually getting resolved, NI traffic is actually quite healthy as the NI traffic previously using Dublin is now mostly using Warrenpoint, Larne and Belfast.  For example, Stena has just announced a ramping up of sailings to Belfast again

 

https://www.facebook.com/607950665958717/posts/3748162961937456/?d=n

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I believe Stena have announced that freight through Holyhead has increased by 20% since last week when they announced a 70% drop off. It's now currently down 50% on last year.

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Channel 4 News had a substantial and striking report tonight on loss of traffic at Holyhead.  In particular they highlighted that the Welsh administration is getting involved and spoke of traffic diverting to routes to Northern Ireland instead of Dublin.  Stena Estrid was shown, nearly empty.

The report was nearly 45 minutes into the programme (which is on Channel 4 +1 now, if you are really quick).

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Boris, in PMQs this week said that ferry traffic was travelling freely and unfettered on the UK-Belfast routes, as evidence that trade was not being hampered by Brexit. What he didn't say was this increase in traffic was due to hauliers diverting from Dublin routes.

The 500% increase in Rosslare traffic is the comparison with Jan 2020. I'm not sure where Gareth got his 5-6 sailings per day previously. All I recall is four sailings a day to Wales and 3 sailings per week to France. 

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1 hour ago, BigDW1946 said:

I'm not sure where Gareth got his 5-6 sailings per day previously. All I recall is four sailings a day to Wales and 3 sailings per week to France. 

I thought there was at least a daily sailing to France from Stena, making the 5.  I couldn’t remember whether there was a second one on some days previously.  Maybe I should have said 4-5, but a 500% increase on that would still have equated to an extra 16-20 sailings per day if those original 4-5 were sailing full.  (Which we’ve established was far from the case).

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I`m at a loss to understand why the Welsh Government would get involved. Yes the reduction of traffic will cause a reduction in port charges but thats all. These lorries roll off at Holyhead and by and large don`t stop until they arrive at the final channel exit port. The lorries are full of diesel, their drivers rested and fed on the ferry. The plus for the UK has to be a goodly reduction of HGV`s on UK roads.

   Sadly I don`t think this situation will improve as the landbridge will always be more attractive to hauliers already on wafer thin margins. Just the Covid requirements by the French making these new routes temporarily attractive.

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