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Holiday Bookings for Summer 2021


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IATA (Airlines organisation) have a system being trialled called Travel Pass which meets several requirements like verifiable test / vaccination and addresses privacy concerns from the EU etc.

Details in the PDF

travel-pass.pdf

IATA being an international body already have connections and will only have to talk / get agreement from the big blocks - US, EU, China etc and everyone else will follow.

18 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

My point is that if the EU judge the AZ vaccine to be inefficient in those aged 65+ then they might refuse older UK residents access to France etc. Likewise if the USA believe the Sputnik V vaccine is risky then they could refuse EU visitors given it with no choice from coming into the country.  Basing the certificate/passport on antibodies would be a fairer solution, preserve some sort of medical confidentiality and reveal which variants people are protected against.

 

The issue is that the knowledge is always changing as time proves / disapproves efficacy, especially since there are now several million guinea pigs that have been injected with each vaccine. With B117 showing signs of the E484K mutation limiting the ability of current antibodies to lock onto to the virus and rendered less effective, testing will still have to be done at point of travel.

Going on holiday will be a small problem compared to people having the wrong vaccine to go to where they want to go if AZ proves effective against B117, 501.V2 etc and says Pfizer doesn’t.

Cue revaccinations, money changing hands etc

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Hong Kong has had the benefit of dealing with SARS which at the time they treated as an atypical pneumonia. It killed 10% of the population of Amoy Gardens after it nearly wiped out the Prince of Wale

Loose talk! We will never get to the situation where 'everybody has been vaccinated' as people cannot be compelled to have it and making it compulsory simply isn't on the cards. I get really fed

It's not COVID per se that's causing the problem but the uncertainty. I'm afraid the only option is for all those companies in the tourist industry to band together and put pressure on those gove

 

Just looking at the UK only. If, as seems increasingly likely, vaccinated people are shown not to transmit the disease to any appreciable extent, then HMG will want them out in the economy spending their pent up savings as soon as possible. And by mid March there will be a lot of people who have had their jab+3 weeks kick in time desperate to want to do exactly that. Yes, it will be discriminatory but it will be a case of needs must.

You can't have a situation where 'nobody is vaccinated until everyone is vaccinated' indefinitely because that will never happen as there will always be a significant minority of refuseniks.

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The reality is we just don't know anything yet about how the year will look.

Best guess is we will achieve some steps towards domestic normality by late Spring when the most vulnerable are vaccinated but it's going to be careful steps until most of the population is vaccinated.

The picture really doesn't look good for international travel this year.

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70% is the UK goal so the refuseniks can refuse, some of them will be immune anyway naturally. The UK and EU expectation is/was vaccinating adults by mid September, depending on vaccine ramp up there predictions are end of the year. EU could be end of 2021 depending on how delays affect things.

As of today from doses ~22% of the adult population have had a single dose and a couple of percent have had double. If you take 3 months as the time between first and second plus second dose efficacy then ~ 22-24% will be fully vaccinated by May.

Extrapolating out then all the bands should be done by 23-26 March which means second doses for this vulnerable group by mid June. This is still way below any kind of immunity / community immunity.

Bear in mind too that the largest group in hospital are not the over 65's but those between 40 and 65, not dying at the same rate as over 65's but still needing treatment. With the vulnerable groups done, there will be less deaths, but that doesn't stop the virus from spreading amongst what is still the majority of the population who are also the majority in hospital.

At this point it is the politics says the bands are enough to open up the economy, or it is now 50%, still 70% etc? Other factors come into play like how much will a summer at home (UK, France or where ever) spending all that saved up cash bolster the UK economy and help it get back up and running. A week or so ago two thirds of the accommodation and hospitality industry said they had less than 3 months of reserves left.

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Easy to automate the process via app or online portal. Can make a chargeable item to cover costs and bring extra income into surgeries. Apps / portals already exist.

Unless verifiable open to massive fraud, that is why something Travel Pass above will be implemented.

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An online portal for those without a smartphone.

However like vaccines, if you need a smartphone to host the system to travel, how long will it be before everyone travelling has one?

Especially if a price incentive is put in place compared to a paper alternative.

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I think if you mentioned 'online portal' to certain typical cruise passengers they'd be looking for some sort of window in the side of the ship!

A heck of a lot of travellers, mainly elderly, ones are not computer savvy at all, but many do have lots of dosh, especially merry widows.

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2 hours ago, cvabishop said:

And not everyone has a smart phone, although this is a common assumption!

You may find that becomes compulsory for incoming passengers, even if they have to rent one,

Hotel quarantine is silly given the numbers and tags that are used for bail etc are expensive.

Some countries have a good smartphone based system for enforcing quarantine including having to take a picture / record something on demand with GPS location. That would make sense in the UK given the volume,

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3 minutes ago, David Williams said:

Some countries have a good smartphone based system for enforcing quarantine including having to take a picture / record something on demand with GPS location. That would make sense in the UK given the volume,

Sounds like a kidnapping and ransom demand. Take a photo of the victim with today's Glasgow Herald in the background to be sure they are not only where they say they are but also suitably embarrassed by the headline.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19070308.calmac-fire-running-full-service-empty-ferries-day-green-credentials-boast/&ved=2ahUKEwj0rIXOw9juAhVOyoUKHZPPCfEQxfQBMAB6BAgCEAY&usg=AOvVaw3u7mgb8nMEM-l8fBgGYT3D

Ed

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Here me thinking this was enthusats web page.low and behold we must have the best brains in the scientific world amongst the members of this page .i know everyone have there own views but some are now decrying one of the vaccines not effective against the South African variant.what I have read it was only a very small trial of younger people.i feel we have a long way to go before we know if there is a problem with one or more of these vaccines.if it is going to reduce the death rate surely it is better to have it than not.stay safe

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3 minutes ago, nodwad said:

Here me thinking this was enthusats web page.low and behold we must have the best brains in the scientific world amongst the members of this page .i know everyone have there own views but some are now decrying one of the vaccines not effective against the South African variant.what I have read it was only a very small trial of younger people.i feel we have a long way to go before we know if there is a problem with one or more of these vaccines.if it is going to reduce the death rate surely it is better to have it than not.stay safe

I have not seen any posts saying that.

I had the AZ vaccine yesterday and am quite happy with it !

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No vacine is future proofed against any mutation that might occur. As I understand it neither of the current vaccines in use in the UK are as effictive against the new mutations as the origional strain. However they both appear to be effective at guarding against death or hospitalization. To me that is the importent thing as I fear it is totally unrealistic to expect 100% immunilty. Whether the majority of the public will want to travel knowing that they might pick up a strain that they may not be effectivly protected against remains to be seen.

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59 minutes ago, David Williams said:

I had the AZ vaccine yesterday and am quite happy with it !

So did I. I have had flu-like symptoms today though. Just to bring this post to be relevant to BF, I had mine in the Ferry Port in Poole. The BF counter was closed, and the Condor one was being used as part of the reception. Cotentin was tied up (for the weekend), and there were only 6 trailers on view, although I couldn't see the main lorry park as I was otherwise engaged!

The whole vaccination process was well organised and they were due to do 800 there yesterday.

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35 minutes ago, David Williams said:

A lovely place to have a jab.

If you don't mind sharing it with the temporary mortuary also at the port. It does rather bring it home to you though. If you make use of one facility you won't need to make use of the other. The choice is yours.

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15 hours ago, cvabishop said:

I think if you mentioned 'online portal' to certain typical cruise passengers they'd be looking for some sort of window in the side of the ship!

A heck of a lot of travellers, mainly elderly, ones are not computer savvy at all, but many do have lots of dosh, especially merry widows.

Evidence of this is that almost the only travel advertising now carried by newspapers is for cruises.

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