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Holiday Bookings for Summer 2021


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37 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

I don't think we will be booking anything until:

A. We can be sure we will be permitted to go.

B. Travel will be definitely available and relatively hassle free (and no risk of unexpected quarantine on return)

C. We will be able to enjoy a normal holiday experience at the destination without undue restrictions. (UK or abroad)

If we just want a bit of sunshine then the conservatory warms up nicely from March onwards.

It cost us over £700 in lost deposits and unrecoverable costs last year, an experience we don't wish to repeat. And we are not in the business of accepting vouchers s a result of kicking the can down the road for future bookings which may or may not go ahead.

So, realistically, maybe April onwards UK day excursions, Summer possibly UK overnight accommodation and just, faintly possible, leaving these shores sometime in the Autumn but I'm certainly not holding my breath on that.

 

|Definitely glass half empty then.

You are probably right but I prefer glass half full so will live in hope and expectation.  I don't think your criteria will be reached any time soon if ever. Restrictions are here to stay and the potential for quarantine will always be there but hopefully much reduced. Sun and travelling abroad is not top of my agenda but removal of lockdown within the UK in my opinion needs to happen sooner rather than later or my grand children's children's children will still be paying the bill.

Hope the effects of the Jab have worn off

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Hong Kong has had the benefit of dealing with SARS which at the time they treated as an atypical pneumonia. It killed 10% of the population of Amoy Gardens after it nearly wiped out the Prince of Wale

Loose talk! We will never get to the situation where 'everybody has been vaccinated' as people cannot be compelled to have it and making it compulsory simply isn't on the cards. I get really fed

It's not COVID per se that's causing the problem but the uncertainty. I'm afraid the only option is for all those companies in the tourist industry to band together and put pressure on those gove

16 hours ago, jonno said:

I'm sick & tired of the points scoring. New Zealand for crying out loud, It's the Southern hemisphere... the height of summer

I don't think that there has been any points scoring - just pointing out that other approaches are possible. I seem to recall that when such countries adopted this approach there was a feeling that they were being overly stringent and that we'd get back to a level of normality almost as quickly but without the same measures. That does not seem to have happened. 

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but removal of lockdown within the UK in my opinion needs to happen sooner rather than later or my grand children's children's children will still be paying the bill.

Yes Ian, that would be a great plus in the shorter term. Mind you there are a lot of people out and about at the moment. We shopped at the supermarket in the local town at 8:30 this morning and it was surprisingly busy. I had to drive through our village high street to pick up some items from Screwfix later in the morning and the M&S Food Hall and the local butchers both had about 25 people queuing to get in. We have been avoiding M&S for food shopping as the aisles are narrow and social distancing is not really observed very much. The high street seemed pretty busy generally, not sure what thy were all doing really.

I understand your glass half full philosophy but it is also nice to be pleasantly surprised! We live in hope.

The effects of the jab have worn off now. Let's hope it is working.

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Funny that our massive Asda only a mile or so away has been very quiet recently. We go once a week when the milk runs out, like you early in the morning. We pass a massive Sainsburys on the way and the car parks look vey quiet.  

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1 hour ago, VikingVoyager said:

I don't think that there has been any points scoring - just pointing out that other approaches are possible. I seem to recall that when such countries adopted this approach there was a feeling that they were being overly stringent and that we'd get back to a level of normality almost as quickly but without the same measures. That does not seem to have happened. 

Fair enough but why is New Zealand always given as the example. Why not Sweden for instance who haven't locked down at all?

This on the BBC from Nick Triggle who has a brain in his head

"Temporary suppression, which is essentially what countries like New Zealand have done, is about protecting people in the short-term. Unless they keep their borders shut forever, it cannot work long-term.

 

Vaccines mean immunity builds up and at the very least should stop most people falling seriously ill.

There will be an ongoing challenge of keeping up with a virus that will mutate - although this is likely to be less difficult than it seems as coronaviruses tend to be much more stable than flu, for which different strains circulate every year.

There will always be people who are susceptible, either the vaccine doesn't work or they have refused to have it. That is why the continued advances in treatments are essential.

But we should never again see the levels of deaths we have.

Thousands will still die in winters to come. But each year this should lessen until it gets near to the levels of mortality we see with flu - something which society readily accepts."

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31 minutes ago, jonno said:

Fair enough but why is New Zealand always given as the example. Why not Sweden for instance who haven't locked down at all?

I think that would be down to relative death rates. Plenty of people were promoting Sweden until the approach seemed to come a little unstuck.  Meanwhile, places like NZ and Australia seem to be having medium term success at returning to a kind of normality, albeit one without international travel.

I need to be clear, I'm not suggesting that their approach was one that I advocated for the UK months ago - I think that anyone that tells you with certainty something about this virus months in advance is probably someone that is not worth taking too seriously - but I am certain that it has been more successful than our own and I'm prepared to learn from the success of others.

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As has already been said, NZ and Australia have simply fenced themselves off from the rest of the world. They don't have an ongoing vaccination programme to my knowledge so they will be forced to keep their borders closed until they do and that will play long term havock with their economies. The vaccination policy in the UK and elsewhere does provide an exit strategy as long as it can keep on top of the mutations and with an acceptable infection/death rate.

When we were in NZ a few years back, much of the traffic on the roads was rental camper vans and Toyoto Corollas trundling eternally around the two Islands. Tourism is absolutely huge there, and rightly so.

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47 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

As has already been said, NZ and Australia have simply fenced themselves off from the rest of the world. They don't have an ongoing vaccination programme to my knowledge so they will be forced to keep their borders closed until they do and that will play long term havock with their economies. The vaccination policy in the UK and elsewhere does provide an exit strategy as long as it can keep on top of the mutations and with an acceptable infection/death rate.

When we were in NZ a few years back, much of the traffic on the roads was rental camper vans and Toyoto Corollas trundling eternally around the two Islands. Tourism is absolutely huge there, and rightly so.

My personal thoughts are that their strategy might come back to haunt them. They aren’t building immunity and will be more susceptible when they eventually reopen. 
we on the other hand will have immunity from the vaccine and all those who had the illness will have built some natural immunity too.

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2 minutes ago, richwarwicker said:

My personal thoughts are that their strategy might come back to haunt them. They aren’t building immunity and will be more susceptible when they eventually reopen. 
we on the other hand will have immunity from the vaccine and all those who had the illness will have built some natural immunity too.

I think you are right there. 

The French authorities have announced they will give only single doses to anyone who has already had COVID. 

Ed

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58 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

I think you are right there. 

The French authorities have announced they will give only single doses to anyone who has already had COVID. 

Ed

I find amusing all of the stick that the UK got for not following the manufacturer's guidance, whereas Europe wanted to do things properly and in the same way.

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25 minutes ago, David Williams said:

I find amusing all of the stick that the UK got for not following the manufacturer's guidance, whereas Europe wanted to do things properly and in the same way.

Confused. France is giving 2 doses at recommended intervals - 3 weeks generally - obviously mostly Pfizer so far. People who have already been infected and have developed some immunity are getting a single dose. The point is the difference in time before 2nd doses for people not yet infected. The numbers are closing a bit when we look not just at number of first doses, but number who have received 2. Everyone in our retirement homes around St Malo who wanted vaccinated has now had 2 doses.

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2 minutes ago, colin said:

People who have already been infected and have developed some immunity are getting a single dose.

But that is a 'France only' logic at present and I have not read anything about the manufacturers or Europe supporting it.

My only point is consistency , I have no idea what is correct.

I note that the WHO now supports extended delays for AZ.

 

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20 minutes ago, David Williams said:

I note that the WHO now supports extended delays for AZ.

The doctor I spoke to on Wednesday, and who had the bad reaction, said it could be an 11-week wait for her second AZ dose.

Ed

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3 hours ago, David Williams said:

But that is a 'France only' logic at present and I have not read anything about the manufacturers or Europe supporting it.

My only point is consistency , I have no idea what is correct.

I note that the WHO now supports extended delays for AZ.

 

I was, as usual, trying to steer us away from polemic and points scoring across the ditch. I have not commented on the UK policy on spacing of doses, and I am not aware of any major EU criticism. This is a choice, and I understand the logic of both policies.

As of today more people in France have had 2 doses than in UK, but FAR FEWER have had a first dose. UK started earlier and has taken a different strategy, and I certainly cannot say whether one is better than the other, and simply try to urge all of us to avoid pointing fingers and getting kicks out of being ahead or behind on numbers, whether it be deaths, current cases or vaccinations. We are all in the same boat and every government and health authority is trying to chart a course through very stormy conditions.

As to the 1 dose for already infected people, I have not seen the vaccine manufacturers saying that those people should or should not be vaccinated, far less commenting on how many doses. I would guess that the issue is being studied, and perhaps someone has more information, but right now I am just trying to avoid upsetting anyone.

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10 hours ago, colin said:

and I am not aware of any major EU criticism.

There are a number of articles quoting an interview with Clément Beaune where he states that the UK approach is too risky and that the French would never accept it as they will follow the manufacturers guidelines of 2 jabs with the correct spacing.

As I say, I am not commenting on what is the right approach, just the apparent contradiction.

End of Discussion

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Historically, I have booked holidays and flights as soon as booking is open.

I am now changing my view and will try less planning and more spontaneity in future.
 

As soon as I can get to the UK countryside or France I will do so & not worry about what month it is or whether I have the perfect deal or accommodation. I may even try not booking hotels more than a day in advance, however that would be a big step for me.

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Colin's point about fully vaccinated comes into play if people hope to travel from one country to another , there would have to be a certain level of compatibility between countries for this to happen ( fully vaccinated), as a share of the population fully vaccinated, several European countries are double that of that UK at the moment even with the UK starting vaccinations several weeks before Europe, so any hope of travel abroad from the UK based on the 0.79 % fully vaccinated ( Feb 9th) does not look very promising .

 

 

 

 

 

 

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At present scientists don’t know the affect of vaccinations on transmission, you need to get the virus in order for the vaccine to fight it. Arguably  it is more important for the Country being visited to have a high vaccination level. I think testing is probably more important for tourism.

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Cutting across all the vaccine stuff (we were both vaccinated dose one a few weeks back). 

I had thought of booking something early on - late March when Plymouth is supposed to re start. I don't feel confident in that now.

As it turns out, we got offered a block of work that runs till May, possibly longer, I would need a greater level of certainty to book anything even after that. We might not go till September at this rate.

On the plus side, some of the UK festivals that I work are looking more likely to run this year, so we might be able to afford a bottle of wine when we eventually get back to the house. The fuel bill for the strimmer and chain saw will probably be biblical though!!

Rhys

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From what I've been led to believe one of the reasons why the time between jabs has been extended is to increase the potency of the AZ vaccination.

A lot of data suggests that two doses given 4 weeks apart offers around 84% protection, by extending the time between jabs this figure rises to around 92%... It's to do with protein interaction and a lot of other cyto stuff which goes way over my head. 

I get to read a lot of the stuff but the missus doesn't have the time, energy or the inclination to explain it warts an all.

Increasing the time between the Pfizer jabs doesn't really make a difference as the first offers about 88% protection and the 2nd about 6%.

There's a new kid on the block called ADG-2 which is still in very early lab testing. It's derived from the Original SARS-CoV virus and basically disables the surface receptors of SARS Cov-2 and other coronaviruses.

The reason why the French have decided to only offer previous Covid sufferers a single dose is that although active antibodies reduce over a 6 month period the level of memory B cells which create the antibody remain constant.

 

 

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12 hours ago, colin said:

As of today more people in France have had 2 doses than in UK

Not necessarily. The French health ministry doesn't breakdown the data to reveal first and second doses although we do know that the first person to receive a vaccine in France, the 78 year old woman from the Paris suburbs, has had her 2nd dose. Is the French total reflective of 2 doses?

Over here Colin we've given about 550,000 2 doses.

The French vaccination program is really beginning to get it's skates on, the figure is pushing nearly 1.5m now an average of 1.8% of the population.

Interestingly although the French and British populations are very similar the U.K has stated that the vaccination target for the population is 70% whereas in France the population target is 60%.

Different population densities perhaps?

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10 minutes ago, jonno said:

The French health ministry doesn't breakdown the data to reveal first and second doses

Yesterday they stated +/- 650,000 2nd doses given.

I think the targets are based on what the current best guess is about willingness to receive vaccine, and in France the figures vary if they quote total or just adult population. As ever, one can pull statistics out of a hat to justify any opinion ...

Hope you are right that the clinical judgement on delayed 2nd doses won the day based on evidence of better results rather than the widely reported desire to deliver a maximum 1st doses as rapidly as possible in order to provide at least a significant protection to the largest number. Clement Beaune's comment, quoted above, was actually quite balanced as, at that point at least, manufacturers and leading scientists were strongly urging sticking to the recommendations which had been the basis and conclusions of the trial results.

I THINK most of western Europe will achieve somewhere in the region of 60-70% vaccination by late summer. The rest of the world poses a HUGE problem for us all, as the virus will go on mutating until much more widely controlled, and there is a significant risk that new mutations could blow up our current strategies. On BFE we are mainly dealing with travel within western Europe, but the same pressure we see here to get things moving exists across the world.

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