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Holiday Bookings for Summer 2021


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19 hours ago, richwarwicker said:

My personal thoughts are that their strategy might come back to haunt them. They aren’t building immunity and will be more susceptible when they eventually reopen. 
we on the other hand will have immunity from the vaccine and all those who had the illness will have built some natural immunity too.

Both countries have a vaccination schedule - Australia's begins this month. 

I think the negative effects of lower herd immunity would have to be pretty darn significant to outweigh the lives that have already been saved.

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Hong Kong has had the benefit of dealing with SARS which at the time they treated as an atypical pneumonia. It killed 10% of the population of Amoy Gardens after it nearly wiped out the Prince of Wale

Loose talk! We will never get to the situation where 'everybody has been vaccinated' as people cannot be compelled to have it and making it compulsory simply isn't on the cards. I get really fed

It's not COVID per se that's causing the problem but the uncertainty. I'm afraid the only option is for all those companies in the tourist industry to band together and put pressure on those gove

3 hours ago, David Williams said:

I may even try not booking hotels more than a day in advance, however that would be a big step for me.

Take the step. We have hardly ever booked much in advance. We once flew to Tenerife with nothing booked at all. Just drove around the area we wanted to stay and asked apartment block caretakers.

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Having toured Australia, NZ, Thailand, Malaysia, Laos, Bali, Sri Lanka, and India without booking I am never tempted that it's necessary to make reservations for destinations closer to home - but I do break that rule for first night after ferry arrivals in Roscoff and Ouistreham at 2100 .

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36 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

The BBC is reporting that Israel and Cyprus are planning to allow unrestricted travel between the countries to those vaccinated as soon as flights resume. 

Ed

I guess that it still all goes back to how one can prove acceptable proof of vaccination.

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22 minutes ago, colinschandler said:

I guess that it still all goes back to how one can prove acceptable proof of vaccination.

If it's a question of deciding whether a certificate is kosher or not, I think the Israelis are pretty well placed. 

Ed

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Travel passports could be open to forgeries. To me the only reliable way for travel is the goverment to put it onto passports.we do this in any case for suspected criminals and a lot of other things and this way is foolproof I don't you we are talking about boris and co.stay safe

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All paperwork is open to forgery as is a stamp in the passport. That is partly why a number of things including visas, residence status, driving licence points etc are moving online with a method for a status to be easily checked (but not accessed at random)

Vaccination certificates are a joke and are open to forgery with no common standards.

Over time, this will have to done in linked computer systems, for now it is likely to be paper that can be verified by contacting the issuing party if needed.

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Why do we need such a passport?

By the time the borders are opened every country will have reached their vaccination goal anyway so it won't improve any. Those who haven't been vaccinated will be at no greater risk to those who have... it's called herd immunity. France will reach this after jabbing 60% and the U.K. 70%.

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55 minutes ago, David Williams said:

Vaccination certificates are a joke and are open to forgery with no common standards.

Over time, this will have to done in linked computer systems, for now it is likely to be paper that can be verified by contacting the issuing party if needed.

100% agree David.

As I understand it, the details of the 1st and 2nd injections are inputted to the  individual's medical records held by their doctor but, as in my case, this was done at a local hub so there must already be some form of networking in existence. As with existing Vaccination Certificates, the Doctor would probably make a "non NHS" charge for providing evidence of the Covid vaccinations, obviously using a secure communication method.

Nationally there is already linking of the DHSS&HMRC databases; other sets of data bases exist , DVLC&:Insurance companies, all of the Banks&Credit card companies, the Mobile phone companies etc etc. The police and security services seem to have access to all of these separate entities. So apart from GDPR issues, it shouldn't be too difficult to have a UK wide NHS database linked to DHSS/HMRC or even beyond. 

Big Brother is already with us

Edited by colinschandler
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This whole "Virus Passport" thing is very risky politically.

The working age people will be very angry that they are effectively banned from travel until the autumn.

Also, when we aren't 100% sure how the virus is mutating and the full extent of how the vaccine works, governments are going to proceed very cautiously.

Somewhat negative of me but I think you can write off Summer 2021.  

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12 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

The working age people will be very angry that they are effectively banned from travel until the autumn.

Totally agree, we just have to wait and see what the Summer brings, it may look very different in a couple of months.

Spain is making welcoming noises, they are desperate for the Tourism as is Greece.

Re BF, it can't be that long before they start cancelling the mid March fleet restart.

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I think things could be quite 'messy' in the medium term. There will be countries such as Spain and Greee welcoming the fully vaccinated and this may well exclude the younger generations who normally holiday there.

The possible 'bridge' might be an enhanced testing regime for non vaccinated travellers. There is a huge economic pressure to get something workable in place and this could result in viable options for foreign travel in Western Europe at least.

A critical factor is whether vaccination does suppress transmission of the virus. Ir would make all the difference.

The next few weeks will hopefully result in a clearer picture.

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25 minutes ago, David Williams said:

Totally agree, we just have to wait and see what the Summer brings, it may look very different in a couple of months.

Spain is making welcoming noises, they are desperate for the Tourism as is Greece.

Re BF, it can't be that long before they start cancelling the mid March fleet restart.

Countries can be as keen as they like for tourism but it's very, very clear that the UK Government will be ultra cautious this time.. They will not take any chances and the travel industry is a small consideration to them.  If you read the subtext of a lot of what is being said, they are hopeful of domestic tourism this summer but don't expect to be going abroad.

But yes - let's see what evolves.

Given where things are at, you can fully imagine the BF re-start soon being pushed back by a month.  I put together a full list of suspended passenger routes across Northern Europe. It's quite a staggering list https://www.niferry.co.uk/covid-19-passenger-ferry-route-suspensions/

 

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The working age people will be very angry that they are effectively banned from travel until the autumn.

Quite right, but that is what they call 'Tough Titty! Sometimes life is hard.

Edited by cvabishop
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10 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Given where things are at, you can fully imagine the BF re-start soon being pushed back by a month. 

I think that it will be like last year, ie cancel a month at a time which makes sense as no one really knows what will happen.

ps, if anyone wants a refund move the booking to the first St Malo crossing !

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23 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

Quite right, but that is what they call 'Tough Titty! Sometimes life is hard.

And that's been a huge issue of this whole Pandemic period.  It has set young against old the whole way.  

But trust me - I see zero way the government will allow a scenario to occur that creates two classes of people for travel purposes in the immediate term.  At least until the vast majority of people have been offered the vaccine.  After that well then it's your own hard luck if you are a refuser.  Though I do feel sorry for those that have medical reasons for not being vaccinated.

Edited by RickOShea
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2 minutes ago, David Williams said:

I think that it will be like last year, ie cancel a month at a time which makes sense as no one really knows what will happen.

ps, if anyone wants a refund move the booking to the first St Malo crossing !

Fully agree, month by month cancellations will be commonplace again.  Jet2 have already cancelled Easter and are working on 14 April.

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I hope BF aren’t clutching at straws or wearing the rose tints.

HMG are estimating end of April for first jabs for the priority groups which will be end of July with second dose and to take effect (assuming 11 weeks etc), at the current average daily rate of 450k. This is around 60% (there are 10m more adults over 50 or in vulnerable health groups than healthy 18 to 49 year olds). The estimate for reaching 70% is end of August / start of September, and theoretically all adults by 2022.

France could reach 60% around the same time if they started injecting around the same rate as the UK tomorrow which we know is not going to happen. But is 60% going to be good enough for the UK for travel anyway with HMG now going for NZ lite?

A discussion paper I read today estimates community immunity vaccination levels mid October for France with current position, estimated vaccination rates etc. It also proposed ways of easing the situation in permitted groupings, so for example second home owners, or those with family in two countries could travel to start with, but bulk tourism still not on.

Aiming to be realistic, being optimistic it is sooner, or “the science says” one jab will do or whatever they come up with.

As a side note, the hospital I was at today still had Swine Flu (2009 to 2010) posters up - same spreading and hand washing message less the masks.

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11 hours ago, cvabishop said:

Quite right, but that is what they call 'Tough Titty! Sometimes life is hard.

Hi Colin

 

Not very charitable to a group of people who are facing restrictions to keep you and me fed cared for and alive. 

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