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A roadmap for Optimism


Andy
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1 hour ago, RickOShea said:

I'm not sure this has been mentioned on this thread.  What is very clear is that the UK (English) Government is totally paranoid about variants of the virus entering the country.  This new measure only comes into effect from Monday.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/declaration-travel-government-exit-permit-b1813070.html

 

This is why I believe international travel will take longer than May to re-start.

The form is just a new version of 'you must have a valid reason to leave' - it just takes the civil servants a couple of months to design a form by committee   !

Re incoming virus, that is really what the hotel quarantine or 2 tests at home are all about. It makes sense for the UK to want to trace the new variants & I would expect a version of this to continue for some time, even when International movement is allowed - it would make sense to force one test at home for some time plus better enforcement of home isolation.

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

It seems that Wales is contemplating a 'go out but don't go too far' interim easing of restrictions:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56311143

I can’t understand the logic of keeping the stay at home message in England as from tomorrow, when the rules change.  When part of those restrictions are lifted to allow 2 people to meet outdoors and sit on a park bench and drink coffee.  You either say stay at home or not.

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

It seems that Wales is contemplating a 'go out but don't go too far' interim easing of restrictions:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56311143

Will Mr Drakeford be prepared to bend those rules if this turns out to be heading straight for Merthyr Tydfil? 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.indiatimes.com/amp/trending/environment/largest-asteroid-to-come-close-to-earth-533813.html&ved=2ahUKEwjaj5zPnp7vAhWRBGMBHQnSDUo4ChAWMAR6BAgCEAI&usg=AOvVaw2zVLcfcvZqaQD5i8-94E3r

Ed

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A very tricky issue coming to the fore. Choices ...

1. Maintain strict bans on travel. Air, sea and land.
2. Progressively allow travel based on reduced risk, probably some form of vaccine proof.

1. entails continuing government subsidies, support and so on for all travel related businesses, airlines, ferry companies, cruise operators, hotels, campsites ....
2. entails a measure of "discrimination" against those not yet offered vaccine, or averse to being vaccinated for one reason or another. Also throws up the issue of non vaccination of children, who could infect older people, who might travel with parents or grand parents. Reduces ongoing tax payer cost of supporting above mentioned sectors.

A dilemma!

I fully understand that younger people will be angry, but they may also be angry about the cost if things do not start moving?

Not taking sides or stating an opinion on this, although I have my own, but what a messy situation.

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A dilemma

Yes, I posted something similar a while back I think. To some extent it is a temporary situation until completion of the vaccination programme has more or less levelled things up between the generations (except children) so the sooner this can be done the better. If all goes to plan that could be late summer/autumn but in the meantime choking off the spending power of the older generations will delay economic recovery, particularly in the hospitality sector which could be critical. The authorities are going to be treading a tightrope and I don't envy them.

The other crucial issue is what is to be done about the sizable minority who refuse to accept the vaccination by choice? (not on medical grounds). I think they will simply have to bear any consequences of their decision in terms of what activities they might be unable to participate in or places they can visit. The vaccines are not 100% effective and the unvaccinated should not be permitted to place the vaccinated in potential danger. Would this entail having segregated areas in football stadiums or pub gardens perhaps? A real hot potato!

It looks increasingly likely that vaccination 'certificates' will be needed for international travel and cruising as it is the countries you travel to who will be setting the rules of entry.

Edited by cvabishop
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I wouldn't bet on a Euro 'Green Card'  just yet as there is still a lot of opposition from the the German Ethics Council and the EU's own European Court of Human Rights. For obvious reasons Germany is very,very sensitive when the word 'discrimination' rears it's ugly head in any form.

You then have to consider the EU's "four freedoms", what are they going to do, re write their single market policy? Just consider the can of worms that will lift the lid on.

A vaccination passport of any kind kills their freedom of movement policy - we're not talking about  the "Posting of Workers Directive" here, we're talking about re-writing the Schengen Agreement and creating some form of border control and basically telling those who can have and those who can't have free borderless movement.

Look at the abuse Germany has faced already and continues to face restricting free movement into and out of the Czech Republic & Austria.

How about their "Pillar of Social Rights", will they rewrite that too?

The reality is that the only option when considering any type of vaccination passport is to make the jab compulsory for those fit and able to have it.

Israel is a totally different kettle of fish.... or plate of Shawarma, whatever's your preference.

 

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Trouble for the EU though is that quite a number of member states have already  gone their own way. Greece and Cyprus have openly said either Vax or test and you`re in from May. Sweden and Denmark pretty much likewise. Cyprus has already opened a travel corridor with Israel. Spain is hesitating but likely to come down the same way. Some want to go one way but others are already going another.

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I just cannot see vaccination being made compulsory unless people start dying like flies.

There has been a lot of talk about discrimination but you can't drive without a licence so does that discriminate against people who haven't taken their test? I don't think so.

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1 hour ago, jonno said:

The reality is that the only option when considering any type of vaccination passport is to make the jab compulsory for those fit and able to have it.

That also causes issues stemming from recent Germany history. You can inform people of the reasons to / not to be vaccinated but it is still down to the individual to agree.

There are solutions, one of which from IATA I have mentioned before, that separates right to travel from medical status, and meets the EU's concerns.

20 minutes ago, Paully said:

Trouble for the EU though is that quite a number of member states have already  gone their own way. Greece and Cyprus have openly said either Vax or test and you`re in from May. Sweden and Denmark pretty much likewise. Cyprus has already opened a travel corridor with Israel. Spain is hesitating but likely to come down the same way. Some want to go one way but others are already going another.

They may be open, but will you be allowed out to play and will the door be locked behind you?

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1 minute ago, Shipping Forecast said:

That also causes issues stemming from recent Germany history. You can inform people of the reasons to / not to be vaccinated but it is still down to the individual to agree.

There are solutions, one of which from IATA I have mentioned before, that separates right to travel from medical status, and meets the EU's concerns.

They may be open, but will you be allowed out to play and will the door be locked behind you?

Greece has been in open negotiations with the UK Government about this aspect for quite some time now and recently joined by Spain. I think we`ll be back to travel corridors but we`ll hopefully know more next month.

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3 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

There has been a lot of talk about discrimination but you can't drive without a licence so does that discriminate against people who haven't taken their test? I don't think so.

A licence shows you have reached a level of proficiency.

To qualify for that proficiency you may have to meet a certain number of criteria / conditions to do with the ability to carry out that proficiency properly. Not meeting those conditions is not a form of discrimination, as once you meet those conditions eg age, everyone eligible can access the licence if that is their desire.

However, when everyone does not have the exact same rights due to their inability to access aspects to satisfy a condition equally like the vaccine, it is a form of discrimination as the right is not equal across all.

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23 minutes ago, cvabishop said:

I just cannot see vaccination being made compulsory unless people start dying like flies.

There has been a lot of talk about discrimination but you can't drive without a licence so does that discriminate against people who haven't taken their test? I don't think so.

Yellow Fever only kills around 30,000 annually but the vaccination is still compulsory when travelling to and from the countries where it's endemic. As an example If you travel from Bermuda to Barbados you have to have the vaccine. You want to go to  the posh beach resorts in Cameroon? it's compulsory.

Covid is not only a threat to life it's also a threat to the largest economies on the planet, personally whether you have the vaccine or not shouldn't even be up for negotiation.

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2 minutes ago, Shipping Forecast said:

A licence shows you have reached a level of proficiency.

To qualify for that proficiency you may have to meet a certain number of criteria / conditions to do with the ability to carry out that proficiency properly. Not meeting those conditions is not a form of discrimination, as once you meet those conditions eg age, everyone eligible can access the licence if that is their desire.

However, when everyone does not have the exact same rights due to their inability to access aspects to satisfy a condition equally like the vaccine, it is a form of discrimination as the right is not equal across all.

I understand that but where do you set the bar. Humans aren't machines, no one person will have the same level of efficacy of an other.

Our we missing something?

Once 3 quarters of any countries population receives both jabs we'll also see a high degree of herd immunity too.

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29 minutes ago, Paully said:

Greece has been in open negotiations with the UK Government about this aspect for quite some time now and recently joined by Spain. I think we`ll be back to travel corridors but we`ll hopefully know more next month.

You can be in negotiations about anything like ferries to Tangier, but it does not mean it going to happen.

The issue with travel corridors to any part of the EU is the open borders within. After all people take the ferry to Santander / Bilbao for the south of France. Easy to solve if all parties are willing.

It will be interesting to see if there are any conditions set like only holidays where you stay within the resort, and whether people will be happy to travel under those conditions.

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34 minutes ago, jonno said:

Yellow Fever only kills around 30,000 annually but the vaccination is still compulsory when travelling to and from the countries where it's endemic. 

 

30 minutes ago, jonno said:

Once 3 quarters of any countries population receives both jabs we'll also see a high degree of herd immunity too.

To go to those countries it is your choice and therefore by choosing you are also choosing to have the freely available to everyone vaccine as a condition of travel. There is no discrimination or compulsion  If the proposition is that once we reach 75% of the population that we can travel freely everywhere, we need to wait for that condition to be meet internally before travel everywhere starts. 

Edited by Shipping Forecast
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24 minutes ago, jonno said:

Covid is not only a threat to life it's also a threat to the largest economies on the planet

That depends on how the situation is managed. The UK is one of only two countries where the economy is still going backwards despite our 'vaccine win'. A reflection of pervasive can't do / aspic attitude in the UK?

There are far greater threats and changes coming to the economies on the path ahead than a relatively mild virus.

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5 minutes ago, Shipping Forecast said:

That depends on how the situation is managed. The UK is one of only two countries where the economy is still going backwards despite our 'vaccine win'. A reflection of pervasive can't do / aspic attitude in the UK?

There are far greater threats and changes coming to the economies on the path ahead than a relatively mild virus.

Yeah I can go along with that.

Why not offer those vaccinated a plastic credit card sized record card rather than the paper one issued now as it comes with the dates vaccine type & batch number?

I'm happy to laminate the one I've got when I have my 2nd jab.

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3 minutes ago, jonno said:

Yeah I can go along with that.

Why not offer those vaccinated a plastic credit card sized record card rather than the paper one issued now as it comes with the dates vaccine type & batch number?

I'm happy to laminate the one I've got when I have my 2nd jab.

I’m having mine laminated when I get my 2nd jab in May, discussed that last week during a support session.  I think something like that is perfectly adequate, only thing with that is that it might need a signature on it?

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To add, have them feature a QR code which must be scanned in order to activate them on handout rendering them worthless without it being done. This will do two things, register your full inoculation and stop sticky light fingers. It's how they activate the lottery scratch cards in Northampton, worthless bits of paper otherwise.... hologram too?

Now there's a thought... the place which makes everyone's debit & credit card is based on Brackmills just around the corner, small world.

Edited by jonno
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6 minutes ago, Khaines said:

only thing with that is that it might need a signature on it?

Easy enough, the practitioner giving you the jab can sign it just as quickly as they fill out the injection details.

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You can't, but you can put measures into place to help prevent / spot them. Just like bank notes but that is expensive.

The easiest way is to link to current ID like photo driving licence as a regulated time valid document. But then you are marching down the ID card route and civil liberties kerfuffles. However once the herd figure is reached, do you need them?

International travel will be an agreed system, not some dog-eared scrappy piece of paper from the vaccination centre.

If people are really worried then there is always the route of a GATTACA style antibody check on the way in and out of everywhere. I can hear Orwell spinning in his grave now.

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