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A roadmap for Optimism


Andy
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1 minute ago, David Williams said:

Yes, however you are getting it supervised (ish) with a link to your passport and a 'certificate', it saves the hassle of finding a local provider. The alternative would be to make the carriers perform the test at checkin.

Yes but you can download the Verifly app yourself link it to a test time stamped image, your passport number & flight details.

Remember too that at this time it won't halt the need to quarantine her in the U.K., it's just to get you on the aircraft and most of the countries us brits want to fly to want a PCR test anyway.

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

What does continue to bug me is that we are living through the worst pandemic of modern times

Not by a long shot. The worst current pandemic is the HIV/AIDS that has taken at least 12x the number of lives taken. 

Only the 9 bands will be fully vaccinated by mid July which is 54% of the adult population and 46% of total population. The first dose rate is also slowing as second doses are administered.

However we are still in a moving feast, as data comes in things might change like the suggestion that those who have had COVID will have the same level as immunity with one shot as those who haven't with two.

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2 hours ago, Shipping Forecast said:

like the suggestion that those who have had COVID will have the same level as immunity with one shot as those who haven't with two.

I was quite ropey for about 10 days after my first jab, missus was too although she was only spluttery for about 4 days. She said it was expected due to already having T Cells, the vax reawakens the antibodies so they 'lock in' together. Local healthcare staff who've also had the virus are reporting the same. They had the Pfizer jab as did I. I don't know if it's the same for AZ.

GP has moved my 2nd jab appointment to 6th April... can't wait😵

Triple protection, might change my online name to Aquafresh!

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On 11/03/2021 at 15:55, nottingham said:

One of the UK manufacturer/exporters of Stilton cheese, based in Derbyshire has stopped exporting to the EU (about 20% of its small order business on line) as they reckon the cost of the certification for each consignment is £180, irrespective of size.  (This according BBC East Midlands)  Not clear if this is due to Brexit or Covid!

 

Funny you should mention cheese.... (it’s a Super-U special) 

 

4DD69FB8-9F8C-4D3E-8E80-C2996B7F7D55.jpeg

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No idea, saw it on a tweet, thought it was amusing selling Irish cheddar with a uk flag on it.

completely impartial to Brexit views - but purely on the advertising side, I don’t think that is quite legal, unless it is a legal loop hole?

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4 hours ago, PGTV said:

 

Funny you should mention cheese.... (it’s a Super-U special) 

 

4DD69FB8-9F8C-4D3E-8E80-C2996B7F7D55.jpeg

I would imagine the size of a Super U consignment would be adequate to make the certification costs worthwhile to the supplier.  Notice the adjacent Irish cheese is 'out of date' !!

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2 minutes ago, nottingham said:

Notice the adjacent Irish cheese is 'out of date' !!

Depends on when the pic was taken , if not, that's why it's ' extra mature' 

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Don’t get me wrong, I love going to France - I like to see and try the different food they have in the supermarket. But I do avoid the cheese aisle - that it one smell I just cannot take.

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Seems like frustration has set in and people are cheesed off with the travel situation.

Re Shipping Forcast's earlier post:

Quote

Not by a long shot. The worst current pandemic is the HIV/AIDS that has taken at least 12x the number of lives taken. 

This is certainly true but Covid victims have succumbed when simply going about their daily business whereas transmission of HIV/Aids has mainly been due to other activities. It is equally tragic but I'm not sure to what extent you can draw parallels. A better comparison is with the post WW1 Spanish Flu.

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1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

A better comparison is with the post WW1 Spanish Flu.

I'd suggest the 1968 -1970 flu epidemic is more realistic, by then we had painkillers & the first anti inflammatory drugs by then. It killed 3 million in the U.K.

the 1967 outbreak wasn't as bad due to the strain being the same as the the 12957 outbreak so many already had immunity.

Our flu jabs are constructed using the 1918 & 1968 strains. 

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On 12/03/2021 at 18:30, Le Quiberon said:

I think you are being quite over pessimistic there.

With that kind of attitude things will never get any better. Thankfully not everybody thinks like you.

I agree with Eddie.

Four holidays since March 2020 cancelled. Bonehead & the Sycophants have made it practically impossible to leave England legally. 

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2 hours ago, westy said:

I agree with Eddie.

Four holidays since March 2020 cancelled. Bonehead & the Sycophants have made it practically impossible to leave England legally. 

If you agree that’s fair enough. But I don’t. There is a realisation that we must learn to live with this virus as it will never go away....countries can’t shut down the tourism industry every year. We will travel again in some form from summer onwards.

L’Q.

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33 minutes ago, Shipping Forecast said:

Just a small quibble, was it not 1m worldwide?

A big quibble more like! You're right of course. 1957 outbreak killed 1m worldwide, 1968-70 killed 3m worldwide. 

Got a clip round the ear from the missus for posting that to

Just read that the London smog of 1952 killed 12,000 and hospitalised 150,000, it only lasted 5 days!

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Just wanted to make sure wasn't going mad.

Even today when I go flying, if you look over big towns and cities you can see a orangey brown haze sitting over the urban sprawl that can go up over a thousand feet in the right weather conditions. Makes you wonder how many are being affected today; I have seen 30,000 fatalities a year estimated in UK alone.

Just reading a preliminary paper published yesterday about the Ebola virus showing it could survive in a human for over 5 years. It is this long hibernation that is causing the reoccurring outbreaks in the same areas, and may not be continual spillover from animals as originally thought. The virus is thought to adapt to hide from the immune system in specific places like the eyeballs (plus other unmentionable places on here) and the person has mild symptoms / could possibly be asymptomatic for one of the most deadly viruses in the world. Makes COVID look positively friendly.

A useful demonstration of how virus knowledge constantly changes, why we cannot as a species be complacent and have to adapt as the viruses do.

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I don't think the problem lies so much in people leaving but that most of them want to come back again having visited places with much higher infection rates than in the UK and maybe being exposed to variants our current vaccines won't be fully effective against. You can't stick them all in quarantine hotels for extended periods and neither can you rely on them to self isolate because most of them won't be able to afford to and the checking regime has been pretty useless.

Domestically, there are still worrying hot spots of infection which could fuel home grown variants and of course repeated surges. The infection rate in Leicester (sorry Ian!) is still five times what it is down here in Surrey. That's a lot. Those hot spots have to be damped down one way or another if the whole country is to 'move as one'. Otherwise we will be back to messy regional tiers, probably with buffer zones around the hot spots.

Obviously the vaccines should help but not so much if a sizable minority is unwilling to have them.

We aren't out of the woods yet by any means.

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Whilst skirting the politics of this, I, like many others on here, are comfortable to well heeled crusties. We have solid reliable incomes. True they were paid for and earned. No question of that. But my heart goes out to the younger generation, who are missing out on education, life experiences, job opportunities or career progression. Instead suffering mental health and despair.

I also think of those older generations, but younger than me, who had senior roles they had worked all their lives for (Debenhams and BA 747 flight crews for example) now made redundant in their 50`s with no hope of every working again. Many wondering what will happen after furlough. We can afford to sit it out but there are many, many who are shocked, demoralised and bewildered.

They look at something that 98.7% of people come through fine..and ask themselves why?

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Colin 

It's easier said than done in certain areas. Picture back to back terraced houses. A low skilled workforce, (No working from home). Sweatshops, small local shops, language barriers, false information about the vaccine and multi generational households.

As far as infection rates go I would not hold the UK up as a shinning example.

As others have said it's here and is going nowhere and variants will happen. In my opinion we need to get on with life. Another twelve months of like the last is not an option we should consider. Protect life by all means but at my age I do not want to waste the time I have left stuck in home limited to meeting family on a Park Bench.  This should be the last lockdown period. 

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I do agree with you Ian, I was effectively repeating reports in today's papers which listed the problems facing Leicester and similar cities. We are indeed going to have to live with this and hopefully the vaccines and their modifications to deal with variants will generate the confidence to enable most of us to live a normal life and exercise our own risk assessments so, for example, I'd be happy to take a holiday on the Isle of Wight but maybe not in Leicester! However the problems with the hot spots will have to be resolved by getting infections down one way or another as it would be entirely wrong to have a situation where the virus can be managed in the same way as flu across much of the UK whilst leaving the hot spots to sink or swim in the hope that they will eventually achieve herd immunity. The efforts to increase vaccine take up are pretty vital I would have thought.

But while infection rates remain generally high they are still putting a lot of pressure on the NHS and delaying normal treatment regimes so there is certainly a balance to be struck there when it comes to lifting retrictions.

With regard to international travel it is about hotspots again. Once fully vaccinated a stay in rural France or Greece outside of the two big cities should be safe enough and no doubt the same applies to Spain as well but you'd want to avoid Brazil perhaps!

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