Jump to content

A roadmap for Optimism


Andy
 Share

Recommended Posts

Quote

They look at something that 98.7% of people come through fine..and ask themselves why?

If that is the true figure then I must have been very unlucky with friends and acquaintances, quite a few of whom have not come through at all and others which are certainly not fine. My late friend's wife is still trying to throw off the effects of covid induced pneumonia and she caught the bug in mid December. Once you are older you often don't fully recover from serious afflictions anyway.

And anyway, that 98.7% would presumably apply to the population at large. If you are in a vulnerable age group or ethnic minority the odds don't look anything like as good. The overall % then has a whiff of 'I'm all right Jack!' about it. That's statistics for you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

I do agree with you Ian, I was effectively repeating reports in today's papers which listed the problems facing Leicester and similar cities. We are indeed going to have to live with this and hopefully the vaccines and their modifications to deal with variants will generate the confidence to enable most of us to live a normal life and exercise our own risk assessments so, for example, I'd be happy to take a holiday on the Isle of Wight but maybe not in Leicester! However the problems with the hot spots will have to be resolved by getting infections down one way or another as it would be entirely wrong to have a situation where the virus can be managed in the same way as flu across much of the UK whilst leaving the hot spots to sink or swim in the hope that they will eventually achieve herd immunity. The efforts to increase vaccine take up are pretty vital I would have thought.

But while infection rates remain generally high they are still putting a lot of pressure on the NHS and delaying normal treatment regimes so there is certainly a balance to be struck there when it comes to lifting retrictions.

With regard to international travel it is about hotspots again. Once fully vaccinated a stay in rural France or Greece outside of the two big cities should be safe enough and no doubt the same applies to Spain as well but you'd want to avoid Brazil perhaps!

We could try education how about sending the ones who refuse to vaccinate to Rural Sussex, Guernsey and the Isle of Man to see how it should be done. Maybe in batches of 1,000 to ensure the message gets spread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cvabishop said:

If that is the true figure then I must have been very unlucky with friends and acquaintances, quite a few of whom have not come through at all and others which are certainly not fine. My late friend's wife is still trying to throw off the effects of covid induced pneumonia and she caught the bug in mid December. Once you are older you often don't fully recover from serious afflictions anyway.

And anyway, that 98.7% would presumably apply to the population at large. If you are in a vulnerable age group or ethnic minority the odds don't look anything like as good. The overall % then has a whiff of 'I'm all right Jack!' about it. That's statistics for you.

Yes but if 98.7 vote for the Tory Party would you expect an Labour government. The majority must have a majotity say.

I personally think the majority have been brilliant over the last 12 months and I thank them.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lastest figures for our village show 'less than three' infections. So pretty safe to roam around really. Same with surrounding areas so it is frustrating that we can't drive a bit further away due to higher rates elsewhere many miles away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

France, like so many countries, has huge regional variations. Whether we can keep a country wide lid on until, and through the Easter holidays is THE big worry.

I understand around 100 ICU patients are being moved from Ile de France to the provinces this coming week.

A very close friend in Paris outskirts has a new negative development with her cancer, and with hospitals under such pressure, I am praying a lot for her.

Whether we can go on holiday seems less important, sorry. I do understand all the frustrations, be they our young people being deprived of education and social intercourse, so necessary in their development, or our 20s through 40s who think, perhaps not unreasonably, that risks are minimal for them, to all sorts of decent people just trying to stay sane and live their lives. I don't have the answers.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the UK, only Wales will get a social Easter, I hope it doesn't backfire. 

Re Europe., I note that a number of countries are stopping the AZ jab as it may cause death in a few people but probably doesn't.

However not speeding up vaccination is likely to cause more deaths. The classic conflict between the individual and the population.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

She and I had our AZ 1st doses Wednesday pm. Mild headache for her the next day. I excelled myself and didn't pass out after the jab. Think I managed to mock the wotsit out of myself, and a laughing, sneaky GP helped. Slight arm throb that night, OK in the morning, then dodgy from about 18:00 till 05:00 with stiffness, aches, cramps, gas ...., sore eyes. All quite minor really, though lost some sleep. Fine by mid morning and since.

We were initially sceptical about AZ after rushed approval in UK for political as well as health reasons, very poor clarity on test results, and AZ shafting us with wild promises which they have failed to honour, excuses about Belgian plant problems when the only problem was millions of doses heading elsewhere ... But the simple fact that so many doses have been administered in UK, and that good studies, first from Scotland, then England, showed very encouraging results on reducing hospitalisations, we accepted that we know so much less than our health authorities, and were just happy to be vaccinated a month before we expected.

Health is far more important than politics, so it is sad that we get side tracked.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The reports on AZ do not support it being given rushed approval. Rather the accreditation procedures were conducted in parallel instead of consectutively. This is all a matter of public record. And I don't think AZ made wild promises when you actually lok at the facts rather than the rumours on social media. Suggestions of being 'shafted' are irresponsible in my view.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, colin said:

rushed approval in UK

It was emergency approval where the checks were done in parallel, the decisions and logic were transparent. All regulators found it to be safe for all ages some Country bodies decided not to approve it for some categories due to lack of data.

This was all about saving lives and sometimes the perfect gets in the way of the good.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In Ireland vaccination very slow and blamed on poor delivery from AstraZeneca. This has lead to several changes in vaccination programme, plus Government have changed their minds on who gets jabs first. Also poor logistics have caused cancelled vaccination sessions. 
Haven't seen so much about poor AZ deliveries elsewhere in EU, so wonder if Ireland being short-changed (Irish Times has speculated).

Now Scandinavia has reported several adverse reactions to AZ vaccine so Irish Government has suspended AZ jabs. Lots of speculation that this is a ploy to cover up other issues with delivery, etc. Will we get out jabs before Christmas? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The reports I have seen show that out of 5 million vaccinations, there have been 30 cases of DVT in people vaccinated by AZ. Normally there is about 1 case per 1000 people every year. This means that of those 5 million, 5000 will likely have a DVT event this year. Even if all the 5 million AZ vaccines had occurred this week, then we should have seen 96 cases of DVT. Therefore if there have only been 30 so far, there is the possibility that the AZ vaccine actually reduces the risk of DVT.

Perhaps we should remember that the Russians are currently waging a disinformation war on vaccines for various reasons, one of them being to promote their vaccine.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, SRN4 said:

The reports I have seen show that out of 5 million vaccinations, there have been 30 cases of DVT in people vaccinated by AZ. Normally there is about 1 case per 1000 people every year. This means that of those 5 million, 5000 will likely have a DVT event this year. Even if all the 5 million AZ vaccines had occurred this week, then we should have seen 96 cases of DVT. Therefore if there have only been 30 so far, there is the possibility that the AZ vaccine actually reduces the risk of DVT.

Perhaps we should remember that the Russians are currently waging a disinformation war on vaccines for various reasons, one of them being to promote their vaccine.

The majority of clots appear to be the ones making decisions to suspend the vaccination programmes.

Ed

  • Like 3
  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here in France the minister of employment, Elizabeth Bourne, who has spent the last twelve months lecturing to the population, threatening people with sanctions and warning of dire consequences for companies if they don't follow her instruction and tell their employees to 'WORK FROM HOME' has now tested positive for COVID herself. I wonder how that happened? 

Ed

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, SRN4 said:

The reports I have seen show that out of 5 million vaccinations, there have been 30 cases of DVT in people vaccinated by AZ. Normally there is about 1 case per 1000 people every year. This means that of those 5 million, 5000 will likely have a DVT event this year. Even if all the 5 million AZ vaccines had occurred this week, then we should have seen 96 cases of DVT. Therefore if there have only been 30 so far, there is the possibility that the AZ vaccine actually reduces the risk of DVT.

Perhaps we should remember that the Russians are currently waging a disinformation war on vaccines for various reasons, one of them being to promote their vaccine.

Exactly, and the ratios are even better than you suggest as 17 million people have received the AZ vaccine so far in the UK and EU according to this safety update issued by AZ yesterday: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/update-on-the-safety-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

France has now jumped on the bandwagon and suspended AZ vaccinations until tomorrow afternoon. They are waiting for the European Medicines Agency to check the data on complications and approve the resumption of the roll out.

Ed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a view form afar, speaking to friends in a developing part of the world today, they see the EU countries, their leaders and more worryingly their people, as acting like "privileged spoilt brats" with the vaccines and the 'luxury of being able to lockdown'. They would be over the moon to receive 1m vaccines of any type, let alone the 1.2/1.4 million unused AZ vaccines in Germany and so on after the leaders rubbished it.

To paraphrase - either we are in an biological emergency and everyone should be treated asap with whatever is approved, instead of being picky about it as Merkel, Macron and co. have been. Choosing is not seen as good, but making it public is not leadership, more like fiddling while Rome burns and denigrates the EU. Choice of vaccine is indeed a first world problem.

But they are worried too. Goodwill is disappearing fast for the EU with their empty platitudes and promises, as in the end it is just like "colonial days" - Europeans before anyone else.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems that Italy has opened a manslaughter investigation into the death of one woman who died after receiving the AZ vaccine. That may be standard procedure in the country but won't help reassure the public. The J&J vaccine can't come soon enough. 

Ed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

The J&J vaccine can't come soon enough

The EU will find some way of delaying / not using it. It may cause anti European sentiment as a side effect and so be banned. (I was a firm believer in the EU and thought we were insane to leave still think it was wrong but now not so sure. I state this as my opinion and with no political overtones.)

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The  suspension  of the AZ vaccine is by individual European countries not the EU , Norway was the first to react ( not in the EU) when several health care workers developed complications  after receiving their shots .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Chef said:

The  suspension  of the AZ vaccine is by individual European countries not the EU , Norway was the first to react ( not in the EU) when several health care workers developed complications  after receiving their shots .

Agreed but within the EU main players they do seem to act a bit like Sheep. How many will die because the Vaccine is delayed / not used compared to the number from a clot which may or not be caused by the vaccine.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aren't stereotypes and groupthink great. Individual countries, EU, Europe - many see them as the same in other parts of the world. Bit like England is the UK to Americans.

There are probably better battles to fight right now.

46 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

The J&J vaccine can't come soon enough. 

Bit like the AZ vaccine is not approved in the US to favour the US manufacturers. Many not happy about it over there. Vaccine politics, the pinnacle of achievement for our worthy leaders.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

People in the U.K. suffering from Antiphospholipid syndrome - sticky blood, have been receiving the AZ vax. Personally I think that answers the question. 

Could the plan be to shake U.K. confidence in the drug so our vaccination program is slowed?

  • Haha 1
  • Shocked 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Gareth locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...