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On a more serious point, the Stop COVID app provides the daily statistics relating to case numbers.

If we take the maximum time that people actually have COVID at 10 days and multiply that by 40,000 cases per day on average (actually higher than the official tally) and add in the 6,000 in ICU beds plus the approximately 30,000 being treated in hospital for less severe symptoms then that gets us to just shy of half a million. 

Therefore, the only way I can see there being a million active cases is if all the numbers are only half the real picture. 

Ed

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Depends how you look at it. If you don't have the infection the LFT test is 99.68% accurate. If you do and you have a high viral load the LFT test is 95% accurate. There's no such thing as PCR te

Not true! At least half of them are on strike. Ed

Of course, there are some members who still flirt with the need for post approval even when they get to 7263 posts! 😁😉

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33 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

On a more serious point, the Stop COVID app provides the daily statistics relating to case numbers.

If we take the maximum time that people actually have COVID at 10 days and multiply that by 40,000 cases per day on average (actually higher than the official tally) and add in the 6,000 in ICU beds plus the approximately 30,000 being treated in hospital for less severe symptoms then that gets us to just shy of half a million. 

Therefore, the only way I can see there being a million active cases is if all the numbers are only half the real picture. 

Ed

Current count I can find is total active 1,032,000, Hospital 30,596 with 6,000 in resuscitation - the Carte des patients en réanimation. Deceased is now 103,256.

I read that France was approx ten weeks behind the U.K. in terms of the variant found in Kent so I'd suggest these figures aren't too surprising, they're very similar to what we had in January and the peak 45,000 in hospital with 6,000 of those in ICU. We were pushing 2 million active cases then.

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Okay folks, 

So I decided to rebook my trip from June to September which was easy enough to do on the standard ticket. At least there was still a Club Plus cabin on the Armorique for our sailing out. 

Would loved to have gone across in June but the situation is just too fluid at the moment. Maybe a trip to Devon/Cornwall will suffice in June.

 

Regards,

Mark.

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Devon & Cornwall seem to be pretty much booked by all accounts.

First World problem though when you look at the appalling reports coming out of India. An utter nightmare when Covid runs riot.

Mrs B and I had our second vaccinations tonight and are profoundly grateful. Foreign holidays will be off the agenda for a while as far as we are concerned.

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On 26/04/2021 at 12:41, Gareth said:

17 May is pie in the sky.  There is zero chance of that happening.

The campsite we go to is planning to open on July 5th; I am not expecting that to happen as a result of the combination of Brexit (they normally employ students from the UK to run their children/young people activities) and covid-19. We have kept our options open by buying a tent and booking a holiday (with a £10 deposit) in the Lake District. Before booking our 2020 holiday I had worked out that we could do a PIP-France crossing on Bretagne (living in central Scotland, it's a very early start). Having done overnights between PIP and St Malo and return as a child, I want to do it one last time with my own offspring (my baby leaves school in a few weeks time).

 

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13 hours ago, FleetwoodMark said:

 

Would loved to have gone across in June but the situation is just too fluid at the moment. Maybe a trip to Devon/Cornwall will suffice in June.

 

Regards,

Mark.

We feel honoured to have you Mark!  Devon is looking beautiful this spring.

When this all kicked off my wife and I felt really lost without our frequent summer trips to Brittany. Then we realised that we had rather neglected our Devon home and roots. The old house and garden are looking good now, the hedges are all trimmed over Dartmoor. The 2 delis and the artisan baker in the local town are doing a roaring trade along with the dentist! The coffee shop in the old library is overflowing into the car park serving drinks. Hanging baskets next. I'm afraid to say we are now of the mind that we don't need France at the moment.
Devon is not second best by any means folks.

We await the winter when as loyal BF customers they drop us off the map and Arm seeks busier work away from Ply for 4 (or 5) months. The log store is full.

The "positives" per 100K in France haven't gone down steady enough for us to even think of France.

Still got a July/Aug booking but only really to check if all is ok with our place in Brittany.

Toodle pip

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On 26/04/2021 at 12:21, Eddies said:

At the moment travel is ment to open on May 17th from the UK, so what are the options for a trip over to Caen, from then.

See how things look a day or two in advance, then if the situation looks good book and pay for an economy ticket to Caen then. There’s no need to join the crowd who pay in advance and repeatedly re arrange their booking. 

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37 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

If anyone is really worried that Caen might have disappeared or come a cropper, I'm very happy to pop up there and check for you.

Ed

Still here! 

Just hoping that you can all come back soon to experience it. The only part of the hexagone [mainland France] where it never rains! If you feel wet stuff coming from the sky, it is simply the latest delivery of cow-fuel. The vital ingredient that makes the luscious grass that our cows enjoy so much as they provide the butter and cheese that we all enjoy so much!

Camembert de Normandie AOP.jpg

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On 24/04/2021 at 11:11, jonno said:

Welcome to Nutters Anonymous! I think we'll be waiting until 2023 and the arrival of Santona before there's a hope of PA replacing Bretagne.

Do you have a T4 A/S Clubman by any chance? Never understood why the monocoque was phased out, that thing could survive a nuclear winter.

Sadly not, we have a T4 Auto Trail Cheyenne... was hoping to travel on the PA to St Malo, we loved being amongst the  only ones dining in the Fleur restaurant during a storm force 10, crossing the Bay.. catching the crockery as it fell from the table was a great sport .. "you have done very well" said the waiter when we finished!

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It's looking like France will be letting tourists in from 9 June providing they can supply proof of vaccination or COVID immunity (presumably a quite recent positive test rather than a very recent negative one! 😕)

https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/monde/deconfinement-les-touristes-etrangers-seront-de-nouveau-accueillis-en-france-a-partir-du-9-juin_AN-202104290400.html

Ed

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6 hours ago, Reginald Slight said:

Sadly not, we have a T4 Auto Trail Cheyenne... was hoping to travel on the PA to St Malo, we loved being amongst the  only ones dining in the Fleur restaurant during a storm force 10, crossing the Bay.. catching the crockery as it fell from the table was a great sport .. "you have done very well" said the waiter when we finished!

Yep, been on Bretagne  a few times many moons ago crossing in very heavy seas, staircases trying to go over my head as I climbed and corridors disappearing under my feet.

T4 AT Cheyenne... a 614 perhaps? (bit of an AT anorak!)right back to the days of Len Funnell and Abbey before he began building Broads cruisers.

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52 minutes ago, Cabin-boy said:

It's looking like France will be letting tourists in from 9 June providing they can supply proof of vaccination or COVID immunity (presumably a quite recent positive test rather than a very recent negative one! 😕)

https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/monde/deconfinement-les-touristes-etrangers-seront-de-nouveau-accueillis-en-france-a-partir-du-9-juin_AN-202104290400.html

Ed

I hope that is correct and I hope that the figures will be improving soon. The balance will soon be taken for my Spanish / French trip at the beginning of July and I haven't written it off yet.

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I guess that the French news will prompt BF to announce the next set of cancellations, at least until the end of May.

However that would mean refunds for those with bookings for the Whit half term, it can't be easy in BF towers !

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Two things have to happen, and they are independent.  One is that France decides to allow tourists in.  And the other is that the UK decides that France is safe to travel to/from.  I suspect that the former will happen before the latter.

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8 hours ago, Reginald Slight said:

Sadly not, we have a T4 Auto Trail Cheyenne... was hoping to travel on the PA to St Malo, we loved being amongst the  only ones dining in the Fleur restaurant during a storm force 10, crossing the Bay.. catching the crockery as it fell from the table was a great sport .. "you have done very well" said the waiter when we finished!

BF feels like an extension of the transporter owners club sometimes....

 

Rhys

(2000 T4 AJT in blue)

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46 minutes ago, Gareth said:

Two things have to happen, and they are independent.  One is that France decides to allow tourists in.  And the other is that the UK decides that France is safe to travel to/from.  I suspect that the former will happen before the latter.

I know, however we all have different criteria.

If France cases are on the way down and I can get from UK to Spain and Spain to France without onerous conditions, I will be happy to hang around in our French Flat for a few weeks if needed. The return crossing is on a different ticket so will be easy to change. I have also had the second jab and my wife has her's soon.

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3 hours ago, Gareth said:

T One is that France decides to allow tourists in.  And the other is that the UK decides that France is safe to travel to/from.  I suspect that the former will happen before the latter.

And the Scottish government will decide otherwise. Currently we need to quarantine in a hotel at £1750 per adult in a hotel if we land in Scotland from anywhere overseas.

 

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We should hear the UK announcement next week concerning the 'traffic light system', and if France has got green! Once declared, how often will it be reviewed?

One of the current criteria for getting a green light is that 40% of the population of France must have had at least one jab. This equates to about 26 million people. At present, the figure is about 15 million, and at the present rate of vaccination it will take at least 40 days to reach this target. I can't find any figures for the infection rate criteria, but clearly that remains very high in France at present.

Even if we do get away on our June 12th sailing, there will still be a curfew (23:00-06:00 I think), and some sort of 'covid passport' arrangement, including a PVR test.

We'll see next week hopefully. I'd have thought the entire travel industry is chomping at the bit to get some clarity, along with many potential travellers. We hope to be able to travel, but it's going to be a close run thing, and I'm guessing we'll be re-arranging our plans next week! It is what it is..........or will be!

PS another announcement from Macron expected today.

 

 

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On 27/04/2021 at 15:31, FleetwoodMark said:

Okay folks, 

So I decided to rebook my trip from June to September which was easy enough to do on the standard ticket. At least there was still a Club Plus cabin on the Armorique for our sailing out. 

Would loved to have gone across in June but the situation is just too fluid at the moment. Maybe a trip to Devon/Cornwall will suffice in June.

 

Regards,

Mark.

Probably a good call, with all the uncertainty. We also have a trip to the Alps planned for September, and hope that we're not all posting here by then, wondering what's going on and when we can travel!

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16 hours ago, David Williams said:

I hope that is correct and I hope that the figures will be improving soon. The balance will soon be taken for my Spanish / French trip at the beginning of July and I haven't written it off yet.

In the absence of the introduction of a "Covid Passport" scheme, do you think that French immigration would accept the dated vaccination card which we have as proof?

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32 minutes ago, colinschandler said:

In the absence of the introduction of a "Covid Passport" scheme, do you think that French immigration would accept the dated vaccination card which we have as proof?

We don't know do we? There's all sorts of speculation and proposals about certificates, passports and so on, but nothing actually confirmed. And even if it was, how long would it take to set up the system?

Alas, every time I think we'll know more by [enter date here], the date passes and we still have no clarity. As for me, unless there's a very explicit and specific travel procedure identified by next week, we're re-arranging.

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I wonder whether BF would consider using their clout to arrange a way for their passengers to get the PCR test that we need prior to returning to the UK. 

I can imagine that tour operators of package holidays might do this for their groups who are in a hotel together, but it strikes me that it's more difficult for independent travellers who, like us, wander from Parador to Parador on their travels and might only be a day or two in one place. Such travel has always been one of BF's selling points. Even as a professional linguist I would not fancy trying to navigate the necessary arrangements whilst abroad, especially if things go wrong..

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1 hour ago, colinschandler said:

In the absence of the introduction of a "Covid Passport" scheme, do you think that French immigration would accept the dated vaccination card which we have as proof?

Scotland doesn't have the dated vaccination cards that the rest of the UK seems to be using; I have nothing to confirm that I have had my first dose.

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