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Davis

2005 Passenger Stats

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Source:- National Statistics

 

Western Channel

 

Portsmouth-Cherbourg 339,000 (down from 734,000)

Portsmouth-Le Havre 680,000 (up from 631,000)

Portsmouth-Caen 976,000 (down from 1,049,000)

Portsmouth-St Malo 416,000 (down from 489,000)

Portsmouth-Bilbao 220,000 (up from 173,000)

Poole-Cherbourg 321,000 (down from 437,000)

Poole-St Malo 76,000 (down from 83,000)

Plymouth-Roscoff 476,000 (down from 480,000)

Plymouth-Santander 158,000 (up from 136,000)

 

Channel Islands

 

Poole-Guernsey/Jersey 146,000 (down from 227,000)

Weymouth-Guernsey/Jersey 185,000 (down from 186,000)

Portsmouth-Guernsey/Jersey 42,000 (down from 50,000)

 

Eastern Channel

 

Dover-Boulogne 717,000 (up from 243,000)

Dover-Calais 11,827,000 (down from 13,446,000)

Dover-Dunkirk 813,000 (up from 586,000)

Ramsgate-Ostend 193,000 (up from 148,000)

Newhaven-Dieppe 167,000 (down from 361,000)

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

Interesting statistics, thanks. I take it that the drop from Poole-Cherbourg can be apportioned to the Barfleur running to Portsmouth.

 

Ironic to note that I have played no part in the statisics for the Channel Islands services last year. The only time I stepped aboard a Condor ferry was on Condor 10 on 2 day trips to Jersey in December.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

Interesting to see that BF have seen a downturn in traffic on all their routes except for Plymouth - Santander. Nice to see P&O are doing nicely with their Bilbao service - long may it continue!

James

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

It always pays with statistics to try to look at the wider picture.

 

Western Channel UK-France numbers dropped by 15.9% year on year.

Western Channel UK-Spain numbers increased by 22.3% year on year.

Eastern Channel numbers dropped by 7.2% year on year.

 

There are certainly some fascinating trends at the moment, not least the fact that BF's Plymouth operations very much held their own last year with Plymouth - Roscoff falling by a relatively miniscule amount with Plymouth - Santander showing encouraging growth.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

It is important not to confuse passenger numbers with gross profit.

 

For the sake of these calculations, let us work on the basis that BF expects to work upon a 25% gross margin per passenger.

 

If BF were to increase prices by just 10%, they could afford to lose 28% of their passengers without any loss whatsoever of gross profit.

 

Using the same model, BF would only have needed to increase fares between 2004 and 2005 by 4.7% for the 15.9% decrease in passengers to have a zero effect upon profits. I think it is safe to say that fares went up by at least this amount so we don't have too much to worry about.

 

The freight traffic figures would perhaps be a more significant indication of BF's current performance.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

The bigger issue is the trends - if they continue we can't rule out BF cuts in the next few years...

Nobody can rule out cuts. Val replaced by Pont l'Abbe is a cut but there is a difference between cuts and rationalisation. Bretagne II will be a cut compared to Val or Bretagne but an increase in freight capability on the route. Falling passenger figures do not reflect the whole picture, we need to wait for the freight figures to see the whole picture.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

Nobody can rule out cuts. Val replaced by Pont l'Abbe is a cut but there is a difference between cuts and rationalisation. Bretagne II will be a cut compared to Val or Bretagne but an increase in freight capability on the route. Falling passenger figures do not reflect the whole picture, we need to wait for the freight figures to see the whole picture.

 

My original post was a bit of a sleepy one...

 

What I'm getting at is that the entire passenger ferry business is shifting towards a freight based one...

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

I think you are right Gary.

 

Its my belief that we are going to start seeing more freight ships (or at least, passenger ships which look more and more like freight ships) operating to France, and more passenger ships operating to Spain.

 

Take the current situation.

 

Over the last 6 months the POP, POLE, and Val all left the channel, two of them leaving for financial reasons. Now look at BF's 2 newbuilds - one of them in a freighter, and the other is starting to look more and more like a freighter.

 

Now take the spanish services. P&O use the massive POB to get to Spain and we can see a large increase of passenger numbers on that route. BF use the Pont Aven which is also very big and that too has seen an increase in passenger numbers.

 

Both of these threads are relevant to this:

 

http://www.bfeforums.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=2217

 

http://www.bfeforums.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=2443

 

James

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

For me the most interesting result was the total drop in passengers through Portsmouth, down 446000 a reduction of 14%. By the looks of it this means that many people who'd been using P&O to Cherbourg did not transfer to BF but decided not to travel to France at all - by sea at least. After all rises in carryings to Le Havre were only modest - despite aggressive pricing - while Caen saw a drop to something like it's core market share after an upward blip in 2004. (When there was, if I remember correctly, an additional service available by another operator)

 

I suspect this is the price sensitive section of the market who have always perceived BF to be expensive and will have changed mode, or stayed at home, with the departure of P&O.

 

Aside from that it's probably too difficult to read much into these falls in passenger numbers. Given the stage of the economic cycle, Mr Brown's policies and constrained consumer spending over the whole of last year these should should perhaps have been expected.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

I think probably imho that Portsmouth drop was probably ALL Friday night "revellers" on Billy.

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Re: 2005 Passenger Stats

 

Perhaps the upshot of the Portsmouth figures is that with Le Havre getting one sailing per day as opposed to three and no Barfleur sailings to Cherbourg the available capacity from Portsmouth this year will be a much closer match with demand.

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